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The conversation about Jannik Sinner turning 22 got me thinking: How much improvement can we expect from a player who just turned 22? What are the historical precedents? While every player is different and new precedents are always waiting to be made, let's take a look at what has come before.
I looked at every player who had a 2200 peak Elo or higher, of which there are 88. Sinner's peak so far is 2176, so these are all players who peaked slightly higher or better than he has - and a group which he will almost certainly join at some point in the near future.
I then compared their best Elo rating through their 22nd birthday with their eventual peak. I cut out 14 players who turned 22 before the beginning of the Open Era in 1968 and also cut out one player who hasn't turned 22 yet: Carlos Alcaraz, whose peak Elo of 2344 is 22nd all-time.
That left me with 73 players with peak Elo ratings of 2200 or higher also who turned 22 during the Open Era.
Of those 73 players, 24 of them had a higher peak Elo by their 22nd birthday than Sinner, or about one-third. Those 24 players include every "all-time great"--that is, players who won at least 6 Slams--plus a bunch of lesser and near greats, and one or two disappointments.
Of the 73 players, 11 of them had age 22 best Elos within 20 (+ or -) of Sinner. In other words, 11 players are close comps to Sinner, as far as his peak Elo up through his 22nd birthday.
In order of peak Elo at age 22, with increase to peak Elo and peak career Elo in parentheses:
2185 Marin CIlic (+47, 2232)
2181 Guillermo Coria (+47, 2229)
2176 Jannik Sinner
2175 Stefanos Tsitsipas (+83, 2258)
2175 Raul Ramirez (+74, 2249)
2173 Yevgeny Kafelnikov (+43, 2216)
2171 Juan Carlos Ferrero (+54, 2225)
2169 Jose Luis Clerc (+128, 2297)
2168 Guillermo Vilas (+263, 2431)
2167 Pat Cash (+50, 2217)
2166 Yannick Noah (+102, 2268)
2164 Eliot Teltscher (+36, 2200)
So these are the closest comps to Sinner according to peak Elo through age 22. Of the eleven players, six of them won Slams - or slightly more than half - but only two won multiple Slams. Guillermo Vilas is by far the best player, with 4 Slams and a peak Elo of 2431, higher than many notable players who were considered greater (Sampras, Becker, Agassi, Edberg, and Wilander). In other words, of the most similar players by age 22 peak Elo, Vilas represents the upper end of Sinner's potential.
Of the 11 players, the range of improvement was from +36 (Teltscher) to +263 (Vilas), with a median of +54 and an average of +84. Using those two as likely ranges for Sinner's upside would put him peaking at 2230 to 2260, which would put him somewhere in the #50-65ish range. Using the full range would give Sinner a broader range of 2212 to 2439...which is the difference between a perennial top 10 guy to an all-time great. So there's still a wide range of possible outcomes for Sinner, though the mostly likely is in the 2230-2260 range (or, if we want to be more charitable, 2250-2300).
Addendu: An Interesting Find
I charted every player by their age 22 Elo (Y-axis) and range of improvement (X-axis) and came up with this rough chart:
Alright, this isn't super accurate as a lot of the grouped players should be more tightly packed then they appear on the chart, but it gives a general picture. This chart illustrates an interesting finding: Notice the trend. Most players are grouped in a diagonal trend, starting with Del Potro, Courier etc in the "non-improvement" category, then angling downward all the way to Nastase and Dibbs - the players that improved the most from age 22 to peak (both broke in very late).
The players that don't fit in the general trend pattern are all greats. Or to put it another way, the greats are all outliers -- especially Djokovic and Federer, who among the ATGs improved the most from age 22 to their respective peaks (Roger at age 25, Novak at age 28).
The players in that first column had their highest Elo before turning 22, with Becker the only true great who didn't improve at all. Other than Becker, it is mostly a list of rather infamous disappointments: Del Potro due to an injury-plagued career; Courier for that high early peak and then quick decline; Hewitt and Roddick for early peaks and then more gradual declines as Federer took over the tour; Ivanisevic had the late Slam, but was at his best early on; and Kent Carlsson due to a recurrent knee injury.
Anyhow, what that diagonal trend tells me is this: Most elite players peak in the 2200-2350 range, regardless of how early they start or how quickly they develop, except for a few outliers. Meaning, the diagonal trend shows us that regardless of where they are at by their 22nd birthday, most of the top 73 players by peak Elo trend along a similar line, and within a similar range. To some degree this isn't surprising: Of the 2200 Elo players, most of them peaked below 2350. But it also illustrates just how much some players are outliers, relative to the pack.
The outliers we call "all-time greats." Meaning, there is something that separates the ATGs from everyone else, and it isn't immediately apparent; sometimes it is, but often it takes a bit for them to really separate. In other words, some of it is how good they are at an early age, but some of it is also how they continue to develop after an early age. How they continue to improve their game.
Novak and Roger stand out in that regard. If they followed a more typical ATG curve, they would have maxed out more in the 2350-2400 Elo range. But both surpassed escape velocity into the stratosphere, sometime in their early-to-mid 20s.
As far as Sinner is concerned, he's most similar to the players in the second and third columns, who improved by up to about 100 Elo points, so chances are he ends up with a career similar to those names. Alcaraz, on the other hand, is almost certainly destined for greatness - his pre-22 highest Elo is already better than Sampras, Agassi, Djokovic and Federer, and he's still got almost two years until he turns 22. While he could end up being another Becker and peak sometime in the next year or so, at this point, the sky's the limit and he has a good chance to surpass the rarified 2500 threshold.
I looked at every player who had a 2200 peak Elo or higher, of which there are 88. Sinner's peak so far is 2176, so these are all players who peaked slightly higher or better than he has - and a group which he will almost certainly join at some point in the near future.
I then compared their best Elo rating through their 22nd birthday with their eventual peak. I cut out 14 players who turned 22 before the beginning of the Open Era in 1968 and also cut out one player who hasn't turned 22 yet: Carlos Alcaraz, whose peak Elo of 2344 is 22nd all-time.
That left me with 73 players with peak Elo ratings of 2200 or higher also who turned 22 during the Open Era.
Of those 73 players, 24 of them had a higher peak Elo by their 22nd birthday than Sinner, or about one-third. Those 24 players include every "all-time great"--that is, players who won at least 6 Slams--plus a bunch of lesser and near greats, and one or two disappointments.
Of the 73 players, 11 of them had age 22 best Elos within 20 (+ or -) of Sinner. In other words, 11 players are close comps to Sinner, as far as his peak Elo up through his 22nd birthday.
In order of peak Elo at age 22, with increase to peak Elo and peak career Elo in parentheses:
2185 Marin CIlic (+47, 2232)
2181 Guillermo Coria (+47, 2229)
2176 Jannik Sinner
2175 Stefanos Tsitsipas (+83, 2258)
2175 Raul Ramirez (+74, 2249)
2173 Yevgeny Kafelnikov (+43, 2216)
2171 Juan Carlos Ferrero (+54, 2225)
2169 Jose Luis Clerc (+128, 2297)
2168 Guillermo Vilas (+263, 2431)
2167 Pat Cash (+50, 2217)
2166 Yannick Noah (+102, 2268)
2164 Eliot Teltscher (+36, 2200)
So these are the closest comps to Sinner according to peak Elo through age 22. Of the eleven players, six of them won Slams - or slightly more than half - but only two won multiple Slams. Guillermo Vilas is by far the best player, with 4 Slams and a peak Elo of 2431, higher than many notable players who were considered greater (Sampras, Becker, Agassi, Edberg, and Wilander). In other words, of the most similar players by age 22 peak Elo, Vilas represents the upper end of Sinner's potential.
Of the 11 players, the range of improvement was from +36 (Teltscher) to +263 (Vilas), with a median of +54 and an average of +84. Using those two as likely ranges for Sinner's upside would put him peaking at 2230 to 2260, which would put him somewhere in the #50-65ish range. Using the full range would give Sinner a broader range of 2212 to 2439...which is the difference between a perennial top 10 guy to an all-time great. So there's still a wide range of possible outcomes for Sinner, though the mostly likely is in the 2230-2260 range (or, if we want to be more charitable, 2250-2300).
Addendu: An Interesting Find
I charted every player by their age 22 Elo (Y-axis) and range of improvement (X-axis) and came up with this rough chart:
Alright, this isn't super accurate as a lot of the grouped players should be more tightly packed then they appear on the chart, but it gives a general picture. This chart illustrates an interesting finding: Notice the trend. Most players are grouped in a diagonal trend, starting with Del Potro, Courier etc in the "non-improvement" category, then angling downward all the way to Nastase and Dibbs - the players that improved the most from age 22 to peak (both broke in very late).
The players that don't fit in the general trend pattern are all greats. Or to put it another way, the greats are all outliers -- especially Djokovic and Federer, who among the ATGs improved the most from age 22 to their respective peaks (Roger at age 25, Novak at age 28).
The players in that first column had their highest Elo before turning 22, with Becker the only true great who didn't improve at all. Other than Becker, it is mostly a list of rather infamous disappointments: Del Potro due to an injury-plagued career; Courier for that high early peak and then quick decline; Hewitt and Roddick for early peaks and then more gradual declines as Federer took over the tour; Ivanisevic had the late Slam, but was at his best early on; and Kent Carlsson due to a recurrent knee injury.
Anyhow, what that diagonal trend tells me is this: Most elite players peak in the 2200-2350 range, regardless of how early they start or how quickly they develop, except for a few outliers. Meaning, the diagonal trend shows us that regardless of where they are at by their 22nd birthday, most of the top 73 players by peak Elo trend along a similar line, and within a similar range. To some degree this isn't surprising: Of the 2200 Elo players, most of them peaked below 2350. But it also illustrates just how much some players are outliers, relative to the pack.
The outliers we call "all-time greats." Meaning, there is something that separates the ATGs from everyone else, and it isn't immediately apparent; sometimes it is, but often it takes a bit for them to really separate. In other words, some of it is how good they are at an early age, but some of it is also how they continue to develop after an early age. How they continue to improve their game.
Novak and Roger stand out in that regard. If they followed a more typical ATG curve, they would have maxed out more in the 2350-2400 Elo range. But both surpassed escape velocity into the stratosphere, sometime in their early-to-mid 20s.
As far as Sinner is concerned, he's most similar to the players in the second and third columns, who improved by up to about 100 Elo points, so chances are he ends up with a career similar to those names. Alcaraz, on the other hand, is almost certainly destined for greatness - his pre-22 highest Elo is already better than Sampras, Agassi, Djokovic and Federer, and he's still got almost two years until he turns 22. While he could end up being another Becker and peak sometime in the next year or so, at this point, the sky's the limit and he has a good chance to surpass the rarified 2500 threshold.
