The Battle for YE #1

[Kieran]

Let's track and discuss the battle daily here. At present, the situation is that Nole leads by 490 points, going into Paris. But from this, 150 will definitely be lost, being taken from his Davis Cup performance last year.

So Nole's lead is 340 points - before Paris.

The Live Rankings are here, thanks to mrzz, and the figures below are correct, up to this morning, courtesy of GSM. Thanks to both of you!

So below we have the event, the two players, their current (or final) round in the event, and their points (for clarity, I've subtracted the 150 from Nole, since he can't keep them anyhow):

BNP Paribas Masters (29 October):

1. Novak Djokovic (R3) 8950
2. Roger Federer (R2) 8520

Novak leads by 430 points. Roger plays today.

The ATP website is also using daily updates on its home page, but with Nole's DC points included. Any statisticians and ranking experts on the forum, please feel free to make this race more legible...

 

[El Dude]

According to live-tennis.eu, the Race to London points are: Novak 9100, Roger 8530, which is +570 for Novak; that includes Novak's first win at Paris. I think Roger gets 10 points just for participating in Paris, while I'm not sure why you're taking the 150 from Novak because it is accumulated points - so he can't lose any of those. If Roger beats Chardy, the deficit is 490.

 

[Kieran]

According to live-tennis.eu, the Race to London points are: Novak 9100, Roger 8530, which is +570 for Novak; that includes Novak's first win at Paris. I think Roger gets 10 points just for participating in Paris, while I'm not sure why you're taking the 150 from Novak because it is accumulated points - so he can't lose any of those. If Roger beats Chardy, the deficit is 490.

Thanks, El Dude, I didn't calculate Roger's points, he gets at least 45 for the second round, right?

I thought Novak loses 150 for the Davis Cup, no?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

OK, we missed the 10 points Roger is guaranteed even if he loses his first match.
SO, Novak's lead right now is 420 and it will become 340, if Roger wins today's match
against Chardy.

The situation with bye is tricky. Even though this is second round, it is the
player's first match and so, they get 90 if they win and 10 if they lose.

On the other hand, a player who got to the second round by winning the
first match will get 90 if they win and 45 if they lose.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

According to live-tennis.eu, the Race to London points are: Novak 9100, Roger 8530, which is +570 for Novak; that includes Novak's first win at Paris. I think Roger gets 10 points just for participating in Paris, while I'm not sure why you're taking the 150 from Novak because it is accumulated points - so he can't lose any of those. If Roger beats Chardy, the deficit is 490.

Dude, you missed a whole lengthy discussion in rankings thread. Novak will lose 150 points
after the finals of DC. It is correct. I don't have patience to explain it again. Look in that thread.

 

[El Dude]

OK, I will. I just don't understand why you lose points already acquired - that the race to london rankings should reflect that.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

OK, I will. I just don't understand why you lose points already acquired - that the race to london rankings should reflect that.

The only purpose of race to London points is to determine who gets into the WTF.
After that, race points of everybody becomes 0. As a result points obtained in the
DC final of year x is counted as part of race points for year x+1.

The YE #1 is determined based on who is #1 in the regular rankings at the end of year.

 

[El Dude]

OK, so let me get this straight: Race to London is year-to-date so far, plus last year's Davis Cup finals (and/or any other tournament points accrued after the WTF last year), correct? But year-end rankings includes Davis Cup finals. So Roger could theoretically be a few points behind Novak after the WTF, but win the Davis Cup final and be year-end #1. Correct?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

OK, so let me get this straight: Race to London is year-to-date so far, plus last year's Davis Cup finals (and/or any other tournament points accrued after the WTF last year), correct? But year-end rankings includes Davis Cup finals. So Roger could theoretically be a few points behind Novak after the WTF, but win the Davis Cup final and be year-end #1. Correct?

Yes.

Roger could gain as much as 225 in DC and Novak is guaranteed to lose 150 in DC finals
(as he cannot play in DCF this year). So, if Novak is leading by less than 375 points after
WTF, his lead is not safe.

 

[El Dude]

Thanks GS&M. The Davis Cup really throws an extra element into this, although of course by then it could be a moot point.

 

[El Dude]

Update after 10/29 (through R32 of Paris Masters):
8950 Djokovic
8610 Federer

Novak +340

Points for winning further rounds: R16 (+90), QF (+180), SF (+240), F (+400).

 

[Kieran]

BNP Paribas Masters (30 October):

1. Novak Djokovic (R3) 8950
2. Roger Federer (R3) 8610

Novak leads by 340points.

Both players in action in round 3.

 

[El Dude]

Fine Kieran, just out-do me with your bold and red lettering

 

[Kieran]

Fine Kieran, just out-do me with your bold and red lettering

Sorry Dude, I didn't see yours until I posted. Takes me that long to do the maths.

I don't mind who updates it, because this will get to be a very exciting run in, I reckon. Roger didn't need 2'31" on court today, though... :cover

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Fine Kieran, just out-do me with your bold and red lettering

Sorry Dude, I didn't see yours until I posted. Takes me that long to do the maths.

I don't mind who updates it, because this will get to be a very exciting run in, I reckon. Roger didn't need 2'31" on court today, though... :cover

Rog did not want to come out again on court for practice for tomorrow and so decided to
stay for that long and combine today's match with practice for tomorrow. :snigger

 

[Kieran]

Fine Kieran, just out-do me with your bold and red lettering

Sorry Dude, I didn't see yours until I posted. Takes me that long to do the maths.

I don't mind who updates it, because this will get to be a very exciting run in, I reckon. Roger didn't need 2'31" on court today, though... :cover

Rog did not want to come out again on court for practice for tomorrow and so decided to
stay for that long and combine today's match with practice for tomorrow. :snigger

It's going to take its toll if he engages in too many practice sessions before the final...

 

[Riotbeard]

Fine Kieran, just out-do me with your bold and red lettering

There's a reason why I liked Kieran's update and not your. :devil

Also I was hoping Chardy would do Novak a favor today but no luck... It is amazing that guy wins a slam and 3 masters and he is such a close battle with old 2 masters fed...

That is the system though, and it does generally make sense.

 

[Denis]

Fine Kieran, just out-do me with your bold and red lettering

There's a reason why I liked Kieran's update and not your. :devil

Also I was hoping Chardy would do Novak a favor today but no luck... It is amazing that guy wins a slam and 3 masters and he is such a close battle with old 2 masters fed...

That is the system though, and it does generally make sense.

Fed also played a couple of mickey mouse tourneys that bagged him 1400 points plus davis cup.

 

[kskate2]

Fine Kieran, just out-do me with your bold and red lettering

There's a reason why I liked Kieran's update and not your. :devil

Also I was hoping Chardy would do Novak a favor today but no luck... It is amazing that guy wins a slam and 3 masters and he is such a close battle with old 2 masters fed...

That is the system though, and it does generally make sense.

Fed also played a couple of mickey mouse tourneys that bagged him 1400 points plus davis cup.

What do you consider mickey mouse?

 

[DarthFed]

Yeah no kidding, I hope you aren't penalizing him for playing a couple 250's before GS events where he won a whopping 400 points. And he has played the same number of 500's as Nole I think.