Pre-gaming the French Open

[Moxie]

I figured it was time to accumulate some of our thoughts about the upcoming next Major here. This is partially self-interested, as I do the draw challenge, but several others do, too. We've been talking about it here and there on the ATP General News thread, but time to consolidate information.

The top contenders are Alcaraz, Sinner, Djokovic, Zverev, Tsitsipas, Ruud, Rune and Draper, according to latest odds. I think we can all see why the top seeds have some bit of compromise, or caveat. Alcaraz is still the best bet, if he's healthy. Sinner is a bit of an unknown, coming back from the ban. Djokovic is a bigger unknown than he was, since he dropped out of Rome, and one wonders if he'll even play RG? Zverev and Tsitsipas have not solidified anyone's confidence.

So this Roland Garros will be rather more open. I'm curious about people's dark horses and especially spoilers. Is Musetti or Cerúndolo a dark horse? Fonseca must be a potential spoiler. Arnaldi? Baez? Comesana?

Thoughts? I know there is still Rome to play, but it's not too soon to talk about the French Open.

 

[Moxie]

Margaret just posted this on the ATP News thread:

The final of the Estoril Open,
Amercian Michelson d Q Pellegrino 64 64
Borna Coric winning Aix-en-Provence defeating Wawrinka 67 63 76

I was wondering if Stan will have to qualify for RG, or if he'll get a WC, but he's still keeping hope alive. Dangerous to someone first round? I think all of the others or likely to have to qualify, too?

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Margaret just posted this on the ATP News thread:

The final of the Estoril Open,
Amercian Michelson d Q Pellegrino 64 64
Borna Coric winning Aix-en-Provence defeating Wawrinka 67 63 76

I was wondering if Stan will have to qualify for RG, or if he'll get a WC, but he's still keeping hope alive. Dangerous to someone first round? I think all of the others or likely to have to qualify, too?

Well you would think that Stan winning RG would get a wild card, also remember too Gasquet will retire at this years RG., he will also received a wild card

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

If Sinner comes back and is anywhere near his level pre-ban, he will probably win the French Open. If he doesn't, then this slam is wide open because quite honestly, I don't have any confidence in anyone else right now. For all I know, it could be someone completely off the grid that no one is thinking of, like a Nuno Borges, that wins the French Open. Not likely, but we're well overdue for one, as it's been 21 years since someone completely off the grid won a slam, when Gaston Gaudio won the 2004 French Open.

 

[Fiero425]

Have they fired Amelie Mauresmo as Tourn. Dir. of the French Open? WTF was on her mind last yr. putting Djokovic on court in the middle of the night? He often finished after 3-4 AM! It contributed to his knee injury that went along w/ a concussion he got due to some schmuck dropping a heavy water-bottle onto his head at the Italian Open!

 

[El Dude]

My order would be:

1. Alcaraz
2. Sinner
3. Draper
4. Zverev
5. Ruud
6. Rune
7. Djokovic
8. Mensik

This could change depending upon Rome - especially how Sinner looks, and to see if Carlos is fully healthy. Outside of the Duopoly, Draper seems the best bet for a surprise. After seeing the third set of Madrid, I wonder if he's reading to win seven best-of-fives on clay, but he also seems to have the hottest racket right now - and the quality of "I have arrived!"

For Sascha, this may be the most important Slam of his career. If there's a time to win Roland Garros, it is now - with all the questions. If he doesn't win it, I wonder if he'll recover.

Ruud looks good, but really seems to be a guy who can only win by default - that is, if he gets a lucky draw and/or his final opponent slips up or gets hurt. He's got that Ferrer vibe of having a ceiling a bit below the very top players. Rune...I want to believe, but not sure I do. Tsitsipas...I mean, come on. Thus my putting Mensik as my #8. Dude is a dangerous player, though I don't think he's quite ready for a Slam title. Still, he's going to be a guy no one wants to face at Wimbledon.

I'm imagining Novak meditating on the Serbian "Pyramid of the Sun," trying to re-capture the desire to win. Not sure he has it anymore.

For Fonzie, I'm just hoping he takes it one round further and reaches R32. Let us not forget that this is is only his second Slam. Baby steps.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I am not expecting a lot from Sinner at Rome, if he matches his SF of last year I will be happy
He is also entered Hamburg, he said in his press conference his goal is to be in form by RG.
I cant put Djokovic as a contender this year's RG he hasnt got his 'clay legs' and withdrawing from Rome, and not entering a tournament before RG is not the way to be in form for RG.
Alcaraz is my pick to win RG this year., he has been there and done that before without playing Madrid or Rome in 2024.
Draper, though my concern with him is his physical ability in a 5 set match on clay, we saw yesterday in the final at Madrid, he was struggling physically in the latter stages of a 3 set match, he is not a 'natural clay courter' and he was exposed by Ruud the seasonal clay court player
Ruud has got his confidence back, after finally winning a Masters 1000 on a hard court surface like Madrid, lets see how he handles Rome, though I have to put in him as a quiet contender for Roland Garros he has been to the final twice before, sadly with no cigar at the end
Zverev is the defending champion at Rome, before I say anything about his chances at RG I want to see his form at Rome first
Tsitsipas is off with the fairies
Rune I have a question mark, for such a young player he does have the physio out in his matches a lot, or retires in matches, I feel he needs to get in that gym and get more strength training, his game does suit clay, lets see how he goes in Rome,
Musetti could be a dangerous player, though his head sad to say still gets in the way of him winning matches
Cerundolo again could be a dangerous player, he joins Musetti as a player that his head gets in the way of winning matches
Mensik I feel the court surface of Madrid, playing like a Hard Court suits his game, I want to see how he handles the pure clay at Rome

 

[don_fabio]

I think Sinner continues to dominate the tour considering all the competition in top 10. Maybe he will need some time to find his pre-ban level, but maybe not. Depending on that, we will see what his chances are for RG.

I'm only interested in handful of other players. Alcaraz if healthy can win RG. Rune can go far and pose a threat to either Sinner or Alcaraz. Interested in what Fonseca can do this year in RG, but I don't have high hopes. A few rounds for him would be a good result.

Ruud has been a solid pick to go far, he will definitely reach at least QF.

Cerundolo is mentally weak and Fokina too. While they can make 2nd week, I don't count on them to do anything more than that.

Zverev will fold again, just don't know if it will be early or late in tournament.

Not sure if anyone else is worth mentioning. Aah, Draper. I don't know about his stamina level to play best of 5 matches on clay. I wouldn't bet on him, even though he is in form player right now.

edit: Meanwhile Djokovic was seen shopping on Beverly Hills (wrong side of the planet right now amigo). He either doesn't even play RG or goes out early.

 

[El Dude]

Sinner hasn't been out long enough to really set him back too much. He's got two fully tournaments before RG...I wouldn't put too much weight on Rome, but Hamburg will be more telling. Either way, he's a serious contender in RG.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I think Sinner continues to dominate the tour considering all the competition in top 10. Maybe he will need some time to find his pre-ban level, but maybe not. Depending on that, we will see what his chances are for RG.

I'm only interested in handful of other players. Alcaraz if healthy can win RG. Rune can go far and pose a threat to either Sinner or Alcaraz. Interested in what Fonseca can do this year in RG, but I don't have high hopes. A few rounds for him would be a good result.

Ruud has been a solid pick to go far, he will definitely reach at least QF.

Cerundolo is mentally weak and Fokina too. While they can make 2nd week, I don't count on them to do anything more than that.

Zverev will fold again, just don't know if it will be early or late in tournament.

Not sure if anyone else is worth mentioning. Aah, Draper. I don't know about his stamina level to play best of 5 matches on clay. I wouldn't bet on him, even though he is in form player right now.

edit: Meanwhile Djokovic was seen shopping on Beverly Hills (wrong side of the planet right now amigo). He either doesn't even play RG or goes out early.

Don Fabio,
I really didnt see Novak as a Rodeo Drive guy shopping at Beverly Hills, if he was in that precinct, though he could certainly afford it

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Sinner hasn't been out long enough to really set him back too much. He's got two fully tournaments before RG...I wouldn't put too much weight on Rome, but Hamburg will be more telling. Either way, he's a serious contender in RG.

Sinners goal is to be in form for Roland Garros, he said in his first press conference in Rome, so we shall see how it pans out., he certainly has improved on the clay, which wasnt his best surface

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Sinner hasn't been out long enough to really set him back too much. He's got two fully tournaments before RG...I wouldn't put too much weight on Rome, but Hamburg will be more telling. Either way, he's a serious contender in RG.

Yeah, Sinner has that experience with the pandemic, which caused him to miss age 18.5-19. He really took his game to the next level, making it to the quarterfinals of the 2020 French Open, then won his first title the following month.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Yeah, Sinner has that experience with the pandemic, which caused him to miss age 18.5-19. He really took his game to the next level, making it to the quarterfinals of the 2020 French Open, then won his first title the following month.

Sinner best appearance at RG was in 2024 making the SF, after making the QF in 2020, he lost in the 4th round in 2021, 2022 and lost in the 2round in 2023
Sinner has been a work in progress on clay

 

[mrzz]

I hate this French Open. I don't what to root for. I even wrote "what" instead of "who".

 

[Moxie]

My order would be:

1. Alcaraz
2. Sinner
3. Draper
4. Zverev
5. Ruud
6. Rune
7. Djokovic
8. Mensik

This could change depending upon Rome - especially how Sinner looks, and to see if Carlos is fully healthy. Outside of the Duopoly, Draper seems the best bet for a surprise. After seeing the third set of Madrid, I wonder if he's reading to win seven best-of-fives on clay, but he also seems to have the hottest racket right now - and the quality of "I have arrived!"

For Sascha, this may be the most important Slam of his career. If there's a time to win Roland Garros, it is now - with all the questions. If he doesn't win it, I wonder if he'll recover.

Ruud looks good, but really seems to be a guy who can only win by default - that is, if he gets a lucky draw and/or his final opponent slips up or gets hurt. He's got that Ferrer vibe of having a ceiling a bit below the very top players. Rune...I want to believe, but not sure I do. Tsitsipas...I mean, come on. Thus my putting Mensik as my #8. Dude is a dangerous player, though I don't think he's quite ready for a Slam title. Still, he's going to be a guy no one wants to face at Wimbledon.

I'm imagining Novak meditating on the Serbian "Pyramid of the Sun," trying to re-capture the desire to win. Not sure he has it anymore.

For Fonzie, I'm just hoping he takes it one round further and reaches R32. Let us not forget that this is is only his second Slam. Baby steps.

I agree with all of this. Particularly the bolded above re: Zverev. The top of the field hasn't looked this "iffy" for years. It's unlikely to be so next year. Zverev has been unable, mostly, to grab opportunity all year, but he has to see this is one he won't be likely to see again. I agree that if he misses this, it will leave a big scar.

 

[Moxie]

I hate this French Open. I don't what to root for. I even wrote "what" instead of "who".

Why so grumpy? I would have thought you'd be one to embrace the uncertainty of this French Open.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I agree with all of this. Particularly the bolded above re: Zverev. The top of the field hasn't looked this "iffy" for years. It's unlikely to be so next year. Zverev has been unable, mostly, to grab opportunity all year, but he has to see this is one he won't be likely to see again. I agree that if he misses this, it will leave a big scar.

Quite frankly he has been carrying around scars since the final at the USO, RG and the AO 2025, a lot to do with Mental Scars, he just folds under pressure
I mean his outburst after losing the AO final
" I'm just not good enough" says it all in a nutschell!
Zverev had a chance to close the gap on Sinner for the No 1 position and failed to do so
Zverev is the defending champion in Rome, lets see how he reacts to both Sinner and Alcaraz in the draw, Zverev is in Alcaraz half of the draw
Zverev v pressure ? we have all witnessed that script many times over in his career, as BJK says "Pressure is a Privilege""
If I hear someone say he is the best player not to win a GS. What BS, you have to win and play well in a GS final period., whatever your ranking!, and lets face it his 3 GS finals have been sub standard tennis wise, mentally and playing too passive when he needed to play aggressive, offensive tennis

 

[Moxie]

Quite frankly he has been carrying around scars since the final at the USO, RG and the AO 2025, a lot to do with Mental Scars, he just folds under pressure
I mean his outburst after losing the AO final
" I'm just not good enough" says it all in a nutschell!
Zverev had a chance to close the gap on Sinner for the No 1 position and failed to do so
Zverev is the defending champion in Rome, lets see how he reacts to both Sinner and Alcaraz in the draw, Zverev is in Alcaraz half of the draw
Zverev v pressure ? we have all witnessed that script many times over in his career
If I hear someone say he is the best player not to win a GS. What BS, you have to win and play well in a GS final period., whatever your ranking!, and lets face it his 3 GS finals have been sub standard tennis wise, mentally and playing too passive when he needed to play aggressive, offensive tennis

I'm with you on all of this. I think everyone knows I believe he'll never win a Slam. He's very good, but lacks greatness, in so many ways. Some in his game, some in his head, but I don't mean by that that he just has a mental block. He's a folder, but also arrogant. He believes too much in his right to get there. More humility in the face of the work would help him, but I've given up he will ever find it. While he seems ambitious, there is some basic lack in him. A lack of champion's will to rise to opportunity. Some might say he's the best player not to win a Major, based on record, but you and I might also say he has overachieved, based on his actual tennis. Nice to be tall.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I'm with you on all of this. I think everyone knows I believe he'll never win a Slam. He's very good, but lacks greatness, in so many ways. Some in his game, some in his head, but I don't mean by that that he just has a mental block. He's a folder, but also arrogant. He believes too much in his right to get there. More humility in the face of the work would help him, but I've given up he will ever find it. While he seems ambitious, there is some basic lack in him. A lack of champion's will to rise to opportunity. Some might say he's the best player not to win a Major, based on record, but you and I might also say he has overachieved, based on his actual tennis. Nice to be tall.

Just reading his response to media, why he didnt close the gap also his sub par performance? he said the media it also loves to a put a player down? which brings me to remember the outburst he blamed umpires for him not winning GS titles, I cant believe he said that out loud and I spat my coffee all over my lap top, I remember Don Fabio also had a few choice words against him as well with that outburst
" I have had a bad 2 months ( apparently he cant count from the AO 2025) before Munich and I'm like the worst No 2 in the world ever.I dont deserve to be there"
"The ranking system dosent lie.You get points for winning matches and titles. I know I didnt play up to what I wanted"
"Alcaraz and Djokovic have struggled to produce desired results"
" At the end of the day in big matches, big matches, I still believe that top players will rise.And I still believe that I am going to find my best tennis for the bigger moment"

Well I wont be holding my breath for that to happen Zverev! waiting for you to find your best tennis for the bigger moments.

 

[mrzz]

Why so grumpy? I would have thought you'd be one to embrace the uncertainty of this French Open.

You are right. Honestly I don't know the answer myself. I guess part is that I do not root for anyone in particular. Also that I would love to see a South American, or a guy like Lajovic to step up and have the run of his life, but for some reason I just don't think this is going to happen.