Players who lost a Slam after being up 2 sets in the final

[the AntiPusher]

El Dude..how about a statistical analysis on the GS finalist that have blown an 0-2 lead. How have they fared afterwards?

 

[El Dude]

By request from @the AntiPusher .

2024 AO - Medvedev (to Sinner)
2022 AO - Medvedev (to Nadal)
2021 RG - Tsitsipas (to Djokovic)
2020 USO - Zverev (to Thiem)
2004 RG - Coria (to Gaudio)
1999 RG - A Medvedev (to Agassi)
1984 RG - McEnroe (to Lendl)
1974 RG - Orantes (to Borg)

Unless I missed someone, that's it - only eight times during the Open Era, with Daniil Medvedev being the only guy to do it twice.

It is probably too small of a sample size to yield any conclusions. Starting at the beginning, Orantes didn't seem impacted as he won the USO the following year in '75...his only Slam. Obviously Mac wasn't effected, as he won the next two Slams on route to his best year and one of the best seasons in Open Era history. His career was derailed after, but it had nothing to do with that RG loss.

Andrei Medvedev won a bunch of Masters at an early age and then seemed to slip, then just the one Slam final and retired a couple years later at 27. But I don't think that impacted him - it was his only Slam appearance and he was already fading.

Coria's loss at RG was part of a larger picture that saw his career implode. But it was more the rise of Rafa that dismantled him--including two finals losses in a row at Monte Carlo and Rome in 2005--with his well-known case of the yips.

Then we have the two head-cases, Zverev and Tsitsipas. Sascha had his best season a year later in 2021 and Stefanos has never quite gotten over the hump. I'm not sure those Slam final losses in particular stalled them, or--as I think--are more symptomatic of their mental deficiencies.

Finally, Daniil. As I said in the Final thread, I don't see this one as being a career-altering heart-breaker. Daniil's been around the block a few times and, if anything, already had his Slam final heart-breaker a couple years ago with his loss to Rafa. He really struggled for half a year or so, but gradually regained his form. Meaning, while I think winning those Slams would have changed their careers after, the reason they didn't win them--aside from the guys across the net--is because both haven't been able to develop a champion's mentality.

As for Daniil, I think he is just what he is: In a way, he's sort of the Andy Murray of the tour right now. Novak, Alcaraz, and now Sinner are all probably better players, but he's not far behind and is close enough that he can push through. It might be harder in a couple years as Rune (hopefully) comes into form, and maybe Fils and one or two others. But Novak will be gone, and I don't see any of the other guys being so dominant that Daniil won't have his chances over the next few years and hopefully wins another Slam or two.

So among the eight times a player has been up 2 sets in a Slam final, I don't see a single one that implies their career after was significantly impacted. Zverev and Tsitsipas are the closest to that, but again, I see it more as symptomatic of their issues, not the cause of them.

 

[don_fabio]

Yeah big fan of both but seeing him lose another like this was rough and I just knew it was gonna happen even from set 2 when he was 5-1 up. As soon as he went awol there in set 2 (despite winning it 6-3 which rather surprised me as I thought it may have gone to 5-5) it was the beginning of the end. He started playing passive and tiring and Sinner started serving better.

Poor guy is now only human being on earth who ever lost a slam final 2 times after 2 sets up lead.

It seems like a trend in recent years with Zverev and Tsitsipas who started it. All 3 of them, they have a lot in common...way more than they think. Just imagine how easy would be to spark a conversation...."When I won first two sets and then..."

 

[the AntiPusher]

By request from @the AntiPusher .

2024 AO - Medvedev (to Sinner)
2022 AO - Medvedev (to Nadal)
2021 RG - Tsitsipas (to Djokovic)
2020 USO - Zverev (to Thiem)
2004 RG - Coria (to Gaudio)
1999 RG - A Medvedev (to Agassi)
1984 RG - McEnroe (to Lendl)
1974 RG - Orantes (to Borg)

Unless I missed someone, that's it - only eight times during the Open Era, with Daniil Medvedev being the only guy to do it twice.

It is probably too small of a sample size to yield any conclusions. Starting at the beginning, Orantes didn't seem impacted as he won the USO the following year in '75...his only Slam. Obviously Mac wasn't effected, as he won the next two Slams on route to his best year and one of the best seasons in Open Era history. His career was derailed after, but it had nothing to do with that RG loss.

Andrei Medvedev won a bunch of Masters at an early age and then seemed to slip, then just the one Slam final and retired a couple years later at 27. But I don't think that impacted him - it was his only Slam appearance and he was already fading.

Coria's loss at RG was part of a larger picture that saw his career implode. But it was more the rise of Rafa that dismantled him--including two finals losses in a row at Monte Carlo and Rome in 2005--with his well-known case of the yips.

Then we have the two head-cases, Zverev and Tsitsipas. Sascha had his best season a year later in 2021 and Stefanos has never quite gotten over the hump. I'm not sure those Slam final losses in particular stalled them, or--as I think--are more symptomatic of their mental deficiencies.

Finally, Daniil. As I said in the Final thread, I don't see this one as being a career-altering heart-breaker. Daniil's been around the block a few times and, if anything, already had his Slam final heart-breaker a couple years ago with his loss to Rafa. He really struggled for half a year or so, but gradually regained his form. Meaning, while I think winning those Slams would have changed their careers after, the reason they didn't win them--aside from the guys across the net--is because both haven't been able to develop a champion's mentality.

As for Daniil, I think he is just what he is: In a way, he's sort of the Andy Murray of the tour right now. Novak, Alcaraz, and now Sinner are all probably better players, but he's not far behind and is close enough that he can push through. It might be harder in a couple years as Rune (hopefully) comes into form, and maybe Fils and one or two others. But Novak will be gone, and I don't see any of the other guys being so dominant that Daniil won't have his chances over the next few years and hopefully wins another Slam or two.

So among the eight times a player has been up 2 sets in a Slam final, I don't see a single one that implies their career after was significantly impacted. Zverev and Tsitsipas are the closest to that, but again, I see it more as symptomatic of their issues, not the cause of them.

Brilliant stuff thanks Dude ...

 

[kskate2]

Thanks Dude, great stuff. I would say this could be expanded a bit to the QF and SF. Plus possibly in another thread I'd like to see how many 5 setters are played by each on their way to the final and how that correlates to the outcome in the final.

 

[Moxie]

By request from @the AntiPusher .

2024 AO - Medvedev (to Sinner)
2022 AO - Medvedev (to Nadal)
2021 RG - Tsitsipas (to Djokovic)
2020 USO - Zverev (to Thiem)
2004 RG - Coria (to Gaudio)
1999 RG - A Medvedev (to Agassi)
1984 RG - McEnroe (to Lendl)
1974 RG - Orantes (to Borg)

Unless I missed someone, that's it - only eight times during the Open Era, with Daniil Medvedev being the only guy to do it twice.

It is probably too small of a sample size to yield any conclusions. Starting at the beginning, Orantes didn't seem impacted as he won the USO the following year in '75...his only Slam. Obviously Mac wasn't effected, as he won the next two Slams on route to his best year and one of the best seasons in Open Era history. His career was derailed after, but it had nothing to do with that RG loss.

Andrei Medvedev won a bunch of Masters at an early age and then seemed to slip, then just the one Slam final and retired a couple years later at 27. But I don't think that impacted him - it was his only Slam appearance and he was already fading.

Coria's loss at RG was part of a larger picture that saw his career implode. But it was more the rise of Rafa that dismantled him--including two finals losses in a row at Monte Carlo and Rome in 2005--with his well-known case of the yips.

Then we have the two head-cases, Zverev and Tsitsipas. Sascha had his best season a year later in 2021 and Stefanos has never quite gotten over the hump. I'm not sure those Slam final losses in particular stalled them, or--as I think--are more symptomatic of their mental deficiencies.

Finally, Daniil. As I said in the Final thread, I don't see this one as being a career-altering heart-breaker. Daniil's been around the block a few times and, if anything, already had his Slam final heart-breaker a couple years ago with his loss to Rafa. He really struggled for half a year or so, but gradually regained his form. Meaning, while I think winning those Slams would have changed their careers after, the reason they didn't win them--aside from the guys across the net--is because both haven't been able to develop a champion's mentality.

As for Daniil, I think he is just what he is: In a way, he's sort of the Andy Murray of the tour right now. Novak, Alcaraz, and now Sinner are all probably better players, but he's not far behind and is close enough that he can push through. It might be harder in a couple years as Rune (hopefully) comes into form, and maybe Fils and one or two others. But Novak will be gone, and I don't see any of the other guys being so dominant that Daniil won't have his chances over the next few years and hopefully wins another Slam or two.

So among the eight times a player has been up 2 sets in a Slam final, I don't see a single one that implies their career after was significantly impacted. Zverev and Tsitsipas are the closest to that, but again, I see it more as symptomatic of their issues, not the cause of them.

You ask @El Dude for a stats dive, and you get it! Thanks for this.

Look at who won those matches: Leaving off Sinner, since he's only 22, and we're still holding out hopes for his future, the outlier is Gaudio. The rest are all-time-greats. The only ATG in the first column is McEnroe. (And he talked about that loss today. It still stings! Would have been his lone French Open.)

I was also thinking of Murray in the context of Medvedev. And, as to the bolded above, completely agreed.

 

[El Dude]

You ask @El Dude for a stats dive, and you get it! Thanks for this.

Look at who won those matches: Leaving off Sinner, since he's only 22, and we're still holding out hopes for his future, the outlier is Gaudio. The rest are all-time-greats. The only ATG in the first column is McEnroe. (And he talked about that loss today. It still stings! Would have been his lone French Open.)

I was also thinking of Murray in the context of Medvedev. And, as to the bolded above, completely agreed.

Thiem's an all-time great? Haha. I agree with what you're getting at, though.

 

[Moxie]

Thiem's an all-time great? Haha. I agree with what you're getting at, though.

OK, no, but yeah, you got the idea. LOL!

 

[the AntiPusher]

 

[Fiero425]

I'm shocked Djokovic isn't on the list at least once! At 2012 Aussie Open in the SF & Final alone, he was on court struggling w/ Murray (4:55) & Nadal (5:53) respectively for 11 hrs.! The other matches leading up to those marathons must've been brief & efficient!