No reason to be overly optimistic about Djokovic at Roland Garros.....

[calitennis127]

I know that everyone seems to think that this is finally Djokovic's year to win Roland Garros, and I sure hope it is, but I am hardly convinced that it will pan out this way given what happened 2011-2014. There are three main things that we learned from the past four years at the French regarding Djokovic-Nadal:

1) Djokovic generally has a more challenging time reaching the Roland Garros final stages than Nadal (he should have lost in the 2012 quarters to Tsonga and of course he lost in the 2011 semis to Federer),
2) Djokovic rarely plays his best clay court tennis at the French (not at his usual Monte Carlo-Rome level), and
3) Djokovic's chronic problem of solidifying leads against Nadal is magnified on clay and he usually buckles when he is ahead and has a chance to put the finishing touches on a match against Nadal.

Now, my question to everyone here is this: what makes you think that 2015 can be different in these three regards? I believe it can be, but I am skeptical. Djokovic has had so many chances right in front of him at the French and just has not seized them.

 

[Denis]

This year there is a much bigger question mark behind Nadal and that really is the only factor keeping Novak from winning it.
Up to 2011 RG was pretty much guaranteed for Nadal. Recent years less, but still the favorite. He is struggling at the moment, if he does not improve significantly in the next few weeks, there is a very good chance that it will be Novak's turn this time around.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

This year there is a much bigger question mark behind Nadal and that really is the only factor keeping Novak from winning it.
Up to 2011 RG was pretty much guaranteed for Nadal. Recent years less, but still the favorite. He is struggling at the moment, if he does not improve significantly in the next few weeks, there is a very good chance that it will be Novak's turn this time around.

Nobody can deny that part. But, what is not clear is who will be the beneficiary, in the event
Rafa is taken out by somebody.

If Rafa loses early (to some unknown guy), that will immensely add to the pressure that
Novak faces.

If Novak himself takes out Rafa in SF, he may be mentally drained (not to mention physically too) from that experience that he may find it hard to focus in the final as he did today. With a decent opponent across the net (such as say Federer, Ferrer, Wawrinka), it may be difficult to win without really focusing.

On the other hand, if Novak faces Rafa in the finals, then by that time Rafa has probably found his A game and would be singing "Used to be my playground, it is all coming back to me".

This pretty much covers all different scenario and nothing seems particularly favorable to Novak.
I am not saying Novak will not win it. I am just saying we cannot be overly optimistic of that.

Having said that, I think we can be overly optimistic of Rafa not winning RG this year.

 

[Moxie]

To your point: "2) Djokovic rarely plays his best clay court tennis at the French (not at his usual Monte Carlo-Rome level)"

Djokovic doesn't actually play clay court tennis. He plays his usual game, which is adaptable to all surfaces. And it's formidable, to be sure. But this is the difference between him winning best of 3 on clay and not best of 5. Nadal is a genius on clay, and, when the rubber meets the road in the long haul, Nadal wins. Novak's flat shots produce a lot of errors. In the last few years, it has been his undoing. If they meet at RG, and Novak can get way ahead, he may get it done. But, if, as has been the case in the past, it comes down to the better clay player on the day, it will still be Nadal.

 

[Billie]

A perfect thread for the nay sayers.

I am a fool so I am optimistic. But only if Nole stays perfectly healthy and everything is alright with his mind the way it's been for a while. If one of these things changes before FO starts, then I will change my opinion.

I think he still has a few historic things left in him.

There is no stopping the Serbinator :lolz: I sometimes miss those "fighting" threads from BB, anybody else remembers them?

 

[Moxie]

This year there is a much bigger question mark behind Nadal and that really is the only factor keeping Novak from winning it.
Up to 2011 RG was pretty much guaranteed for Nadal. Recent years less, but still the favorite. He is struggling at the moment, if he does not improve significantly in the next few weeks, there is a very good chance that it will be Novak's turn this time around.

Nobody can deny that part. But, what is not clear is who will be the beneficiary, in the event
Rafa is taken out by somebody.

If Rafa loses early (to some unknown guy), that will immensely add to the pressure that
Novak faces.

If Novak himself takes out Rafa in SF, he may be mentally drained (not to mention physically too) from that experience that he may find it hard to focus in the final as he did today. With a decent opponent across the net (such as say Federer, Ferrer, Wawrinka), it may be difficult to win without really focusing.

On the other hand, if Novak faces Rafa in the finals, then by that time Rafa has probably found his A game and would be singing "Used to be my playground, it is all coming back to me".

This pretty much covers all different scenario and nothing seems particularly favorable to Novak.
I am not saying Novak will not win it. I am just saying we cannot be overly optimistic of that.

Having said that, I think we can be overly optimistic of Rafa not winning RG this year.

I think you make a lot of good points about how things could go...until you decide that you can be overly optimistic about Rafa not winning RG this year. As you say, if Rafa makes it to the final, all bets are off.

However, if someone else takes him out, or he goes down to ND in something like the QF or SF, I think your points are right about what Djokovic might face mentally. Roger did. Federer knew that if Nadal went out at RG, he had to take his chance. And he nearly went out himself, twice, before the final. There's a lot to be seen before we get to the French, and including the draw. I think Djokovic has his best shot, but we shall see.

 

[calitennis127]

To your point: "2) Djokovic rarely plays his best clay court tennis at the French (not at his usual Monte Carlo-Rome level)"

Djokovic doesn't actually play clay court tennis. He plays his usual game, which is adaptable to all surfaces. And it's formidable, to be sure. But this is the difference between him winning best of 3 on clay and not best of 5. Nadal is a genius on clay, and, when the rubber meets the road in the long haul, Nadal wins. Novak's flat shots produce a lot of errors. In the last few years, it has been his undoing. If they meet at RG, and Novak can get way ahead, he may get it done. But, if, as has been the case in the past, it comes down to the better clay player on the day, it will still be Nadal.

Djokovic did not crumble in the latter stages of the second set in last year's final because he was hitting too flat and made too many errors. It was more so that he was too timid in rallies and his first serves were off. He had all the opportunity in the world to rise to the occasion in set 2 and put Nadal away. He did not do it.

Djokovic was a shell of himself in last year's final, and there is a reason why he has won Rome, Madrid, and Monte Carlo but failed to win Roland Garros. In the two-set scenario, it is much easier to clamp down in a couple moments and then take hold of the match. In the 5-set scenario, the specter of Nadal's defense and stamina hangs over the opponent's head that much more. There is more of a mindset that beating him will require enduring a war of attrition. In Djokovic's case, he seems to debate within himself at Roland Garros between trying to put Nadal away in short duration or pace himself for an inevitably long war. He seems to opt for the latter choice, and that is why he usually plays from behind against Nadal, and then in the one case when he wasn't playing from behind (2014), he became much more conservative and cautious after Set 1 instead of going for it.

What Djokovic has demonstrated in his MS wins against Nadal is that he is capable of an even better level on clay than Nadal, but Roland Garros is a different animal because of the elements and the length of the matches. It is no coincidence that Nadal has done his best work at the most physically demanding Slam. Djokovic needs a clear-cut plan for not losing his leads against Nadal when he has them at Roland Garros. Failing to have such a plan makes the matches far too sticky and it also has cost him off of clay in matches he should have beaten Nadal in (like the excruciating implosion he had in the 2013 US Open final).

 

[Fiero425]

Ya'll covered it! It's mind over matter concerning this one tournament when it comes to Nole! He's obviously the best in the world, but sometimes a player has a blindspot that can't be overcome so easily! For Lendl, it was Wimbledon! Even Roger had his problems before Soderling took out the only real obstacle to his career Slam! Most all players have a bugaboo tourney that eludes them! For Laver, it was the WCT Championship; thwarted twice by Rosewall in epic finals and upset by Stan Smith another year in the QF! I have to think Nole will get his own FO one of these days; just like Roger even if he has to take out Rafa himself!

 

[Moxie]

Djokovic crumbled in the latter stages of the second set in last year's final because he was sick to his stomach. Last year's final tells us basically nothing.

 

[Fiero425]

Djokovic crumbled in the latter stages of the second set in last year's final because he was sick to his stomach. Last year's final tells us basically nothing.

It's always something with a player! I've "lived & died" with players; esp. from past eras with their winning or losing a title! The player I was the most vested in probably was Borg! He didn't disappoint much at Wimbledon and the French, but no player was more unlucky than Bjorn trying to claim just one USO! The injuries, night matches, and bad draws just annihilated his chances even with his pet surface being laid out for him for 3 tries in the final 3 events at Forest Hills! What an embarrassment; 2 surface changes over 4 years, a relocate, and no love lost with the new venue! People used to speak of an A-bomb drop on Flushing! Between the flights overhead and fear for your life coming and going from the place, I seriously think that it would be the last ranked major but for it's history! :nono :angel: :dodgy:

 

[Moxie]

You are nuts, Fiero. LOL.

 

[Kieran]

As usual, we have to rifle through my brother Cali's post, scan it for the barbs, the propaganda, the modern day heresies, and wonder what he's really saying. Basically, he's making useful points, but really he's skipping the main part, which is that even in his worst year on clay, Rafa beat Nole in 4 in the final last year.

Cali is the main proponent of the heresy that when Rafa faces Nole, it's on Nole's racket but somehow he lets it slip. See the plausible words about "solidifying leads" and that Nole "buckles when he is ahead and has a chance to put the finishing touches on a match against Nadal." It almost screams, "Nole, you muppet, how could you lose! It's only Rafa, FFS, and RG!"

An alien stopping by for a sup of water reading this would be easily fooled into thinking that beating Rafa is kids play and Nole is the biggest self-harming culprit there is.

I agree with GSM to a large extent, except obviously the same thing Moxie picked out at the end of it, and of course the sappy wishful stuff about Federer, which I don't really disagree with at all. I mean, it's your prerogative to dream, and maybe you typed that bit in bed, buddy.

This year reminds me of a Saturday afternoon action flick: Rafa the Hero has been roused from his sleep, but can he arm himself before the villains raid the castle and bash his brains in. Last year's film was the best. The lead villain even got so far as to put the dagger at young Ralph's throat before - with a leap and a bound! - he was free and smiting his foe. This, basically, is what it is, a race against time for Rafa, and the rest left wondering how they plot their course in the meantime.

Some statistical facts which are inescapable: nobody ever won a major six years straight, and nobody ever won ten majors. And of course, the final truth: Rafa someday has to lose. Nole looks most likely but it could be a strange RG, with the Unknown Soldier winning everything, and looking as natural as anything doing it. We don't know. Until it's over, only one thing is true: Rafa is the favourite to win it, and you should get good odds on the rest...

 

[nehmeth]

As usual, we have to rifle through my brother Cali's post, scan it for the barbs, the propaganda, the modern day heresies, and wonder what he's really saying. Basically, he's making useful points, but really he's skipping the main part, which is that even in his worst year on clay, Rafa beat Nole in 4 in the final last year.

I'd say Ralf's worst year was when Soderling hit him out of the French in 2009. That year, he still beat Nole in Monte Carlo, Madrid, and Rome, but their 243 minute semifinal in Madrid left Ralf rather diminished. Roger took him down 6-4,6-4 in the final, and then (sans Nadal),went on to win at Roland Garros.

 

[Federberg]

There are 2 ultimate tests for Novak at RG.

1, Nadal loses early and Novak is the overwhelming favourite. Will he be able to close it out? Not easy. Roger showed how difficult that is to do

2, Facing up to Rafa in a final.

Hard to say which one is tougher for him at the moment. I would like to see how he copes with the first. It will show just what sort of a champion he is

 

[Kieran]

If someone else beats Rafa before Nole, I don't see why Nole wouldn't be able to win the tourney, and possibly even do it without any drama. Why not? Roger did, and I don't see why anyone could think he'd be better than Nole, for this scenario.

A tougher one is if Nole was to defeat Rafa in a brutal, long five set squabble in the semis, then he might struggle to recover for the final. Look at his hangover yesterday, and he was only facing Berdych. Against Berdych, or Ferrer, he'd take it. But imagine if he faced someone who turned up like Cilic at the USO, playing like a tennis giant? I think he might buckle there. I think he might not recover his wits in time to handle it...

 

[nehmeth]

Tougher ask is definitely going through Ralf. And should the two meet in a tough semi (like Madrid 09), someone else might be raising the trophy come the 2nd Sunday.

 

[lacatch]

If someone else beats Rafa before Nole, I don't see why Nole wouldn't be able to win the tourney, and possibly even do it without any drama. Why not? Roger did, and I don't see why anyone could think he'd be better than Nole, for this scenario.

A tougher one is if Nole was to defeat Rafa in a brutal, long five set squabble in the semis, then he might struggle to recover for the final. Look at his hangover yesterday, and he was only facing Berdych. Against Berdych, or Ferrer, he'd take it. But imagine if he faced someone who turned up like Cilic at the USO, playing like a tennis giant? I think he might buckle there. I think he might not recover his wits in time to handle it...

1. Roger did have a hard time after Ralph was knocked out by Soderling: he almost/"should have" lost to Hass who had him on the ropes;
2. Novak's "hangover" yesterday might have been partly due to defeating Nadal, but fair to say was also due to having played an extraordinary amount of tennis this year and won more at this point in the season than anyone has in tennis history, i.e. exhausting! The cool, damp, windy conditions also contributed to the error count and Berdy's ability to line up his pounding shots.

To answer the OP's question, at least two things are different this year: 1)IMHO, despite some (including Nadal) stating that the MC results were very encouraging, almost everyone in a candid moment will admit that Nadal is on some kind of decline and will never be what he was on a consistent basis; and 2)Nole has altered/added variety to his game (e.g., serve and volley) and is playing with a mental calmness that he hasn't had since 2011. Personally, I think someone else is going to take out Nadal before he and Novak square off, but we shall see!

 

[DarthFed]

If someone else beats Rafa before Nole, I don't see why Nole wouldn't be able to win the tourney, and possibly even do it without any drama. Why not? Roger did, and I don't see why anyone could think he'd be better than Nole, for this scenario.

A tougher one is if Nole was to defeat Rafa in a brutal, long five set squabble in the semis, then he might struggle to recover for the final. Look at his hangover yesterday, and he was only facing Berdych. Against Berdych, or Ferrer, he'd take it. But imagine if he faced someone who turned up like Cilic at the USO, playing like a tennis giant? I think he might buckle there. I think he might not recover his wits in time to handle it...

1. Roger did have a hard time after Ralph was knocked out by Soderling: he almost/"should have" lost to Hass who had him on the ropes;
2. Novak's "hangover" yesterday might have been partly due to defeating Nadal, but fair to say was also due to having played an extraordinary amount of tennis this year and won more at this point in the season than anyone has in tennis history, i.e. exhausting! The cool, damp, windy conditions also contributed to the error count and Berdy's ability to line up his pounding shots.

To answer the OP's question, at least two things are different this year: 1)IMHO, despite some (including Nadal) stating that the MC results were very encouraging, almost everyone in a candid moment will admit that Nadal is on some kind of decline and will never be what he was on a consistent basis; and 2)Nole has altered/added variety to his game (e.g., serve and volley) and is playing with a mental calmness that he hasn't had since 2011. Personally, I think someone else is going to take out Nadal before he and Novak square off, but we shall see!

Agreed. I think Kieran's memory is a little foggy on 2009. Roger had a lot of problems just reaching the final after Rafa lost. Down 2 sets and facing BP vs. Haas in the 4th round and down 2 sets to 1 vs. DP in the semis.

Also, I would argue that Roger WAS as well, if not better equipped to handle that scenario than Nole is. Clearly Nole is a lot tougher matchup on clay for Rafa but vs. the others on clay he isn't better than Roger was.

 

[Kieran]

Well, my point is, if Roger could win the FO after somebody else did the heavy lifting on Rafa, I don't see a single reason why Nole can't. In 2009, Roger was looking far more shaky than Novak looks now. In fact, Novak looks secure and assured of his place and he's been aiming to go through Rafa to get the crown, something Roger hasn't realistically dreamt of at a major in a long time, and certainly never in Paris.

As for Nole v The Rest on clay, the man has about 6 MS titles on clay, maybe more. I don't see The Rest as being any more problematical for him, than they were/are for Roger...

 

[Federberg]

If someone else beats Rafa before Nole, I don't see why Nole wouldn't be able to win the tourney, and possibly even do it without any drama. Why not? Roger did, and I don't see why anyone could think he'd be better than Nole, for this scenario.

A tougher one is if Nole was to defeat Rafa in a brutal, long five set squabble in the semis, then he might struggle to recover for the final. Look at his hangover yesterday, and he was only facing Berdych. Against Berdych, or Ferrer, he'd take it. But imagine if he faced someone who turned up like Cilic at the USO, playing like a tennis giant? I think he might buckle there. I think he might not recover his wits in time to handle it...

1. Roger did have a hard time after Ralph was knocked out by Soderling: he almost/"should have" lost to Hass who had him on the ropes;
2. Novak's "hangover" yesterday might have been partly due to defeating Nadal, but fair to say was also due to having played an extraordinary amount of tennis this year and won more at this point in the season than anyone has in tennis history, i.e. exhausting! The cool, damp, windy conditions also contributed to the error count and Berdy's ability to line up his pounding shots.

To answer the OP's question, at least two things are different this year: 1)IMHO, despite some (including Nadal) stating that the MC results were very encouraging, almost everyone in a candid moment will admit that Nadal is on some kind of decline and will never be what he was on a consistent basis; and 2)Nole has altered/added variety to his game (e.g., serve and volley) and is playing with a mental calmness that he hasn't had since 2011. Personally, I think someone else is going to take out Nadal before he and Novak square off, but we shall see!

I'm not willing to join the decline bandwagon for Rafa until this season is done. This is an all time great we're talking about. Mere mortals might be devastated by a RG loss, it might set Rafa off on a rampage. Fedal are a special breed, not just in tennis, but in sporting history. But I'll admit, it's not looking great right now. I'm not one to watch Rafa matches generally, but I think I'll make a special effort come RG to watch everyone. You never know it could be history in the making