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We all know that the Big Three - and Andy Murray at his very best - have played at a level significantly above the rest of the pack, with only eight players other than those four winning Slams from 2004 on (Gaudio, Safin, Del Potro, Cilic, Wawrinka, Thiem, Medvedev, and Alcaraz). Or to put that another way, the Big Three have won 63 of the last 76 Slams, and the Big Four 66 of 76, with Stan the only other multi-Slam winner during that period.
Nothing new, just a reiteration of the dominance of three players over the last two decades.
But I wanted to provide a different way of visualizing this, to highlight the problem that the current crop of young top players have faced. Take a look at this chart:
Don't worry about differentiating the "squibbles" of players - the point is to see the way that the top younger players have clustered and peaked out so far, at a level far below even the "floor" of Novak and Rafa. Or to put that another way, only Alex Zverev and Daniil Medvedev have surpassed the 2300 Elo threshold among players born 1993 or later; that's a threshold that Novak hasn't been below since late 2010 (he came close in 2018 at 2302), and Rafa only dipped below this year - other than his struggles in 2015-16 - since the time that he was less dominant off clay, pre-2008.
What is 2300 Elo? Well, if you look at this chart of Peak Elo Ratings, you'll see that only 30 players have reached 2300 Elo during the Open Era. If we want to be a bit more granular, the separate of "all-time greats" seems to occur more around 2350, with only 20 players. Arthur Ashe is a bit above 2350, David Ferrer a bit below - so that provides us with a nice contrast. The drop-off after 2350 is more smooth (I'll probably make a chart depicting this later and add it to the thread).
So the point is, none of the young players have reached levels of performance that matches the "coasting level" of Rafa and Novak. To illustrate that further, consider that the average year-end Elo of the #1 player (in Elo rating) in Open Era history is around 2400. Over the last six years, from 2017 on, that's been about the midline of Novak's and Rafa's performance (Novak mostly a bit above, Rafa mostly a bit below). Meaning, from 2017 on, those two--while past their earlier absolute peak levels--have performance roughly at the level of typical #1 Elo player. None of the current young players have come anywhere close to 2400 Elo. Again, only Medvedev and Zverev have surpassed 2300 Elo...not even Stan Wawrinka (mostly due to inconsistency) reached 2300 Elo, and among other recent players, only Ferrer and Juan Martin Del Potro.
To find another 2300 peak Elo before Del Potro, you have to go back to Andre Agassi and Pete Sampras, and then they are more consistently present going back to the start of the Open Era.
Now a lot of those players listed above--as well as others starting to rise--are very young, and years away from peak age, which historically has tended to be in the 22-28 range, with 24-25 tending to be the most common peak age. Roger turned 22 in 2003 and 28 in 2009, his best year (2006) being at age 24-25; Rafa turned 22 in 2008 and 28 in 2015, a span inclusive of his three best seasons (2008, 10, 13); Novak turned 22 in 2009 and 28 in 2015, which was his absolute peak. Lesser players are similar, with expectedly some outliers.
By the time a player turns 25, in the vast majority of cases, we know who they are: or at least what their peak performance is. Maybe they have their best years after, but in terms of what they're capable of, we've usually already seen it. That means that most of NextGen (born 1994-98ish) are all either turning 25 this year or in the latter half of their 20s. It doesn't mean that someone like Medvedev (27 this year) or Zverev (26 this year) couldn't put their best season together over the next few years, but chances are we won't see a significantly higher Elo from them. The same with Rublev and others.
There's still hope of higher levels from the Millenial Gen (b. 1999-2003), especially the two 2003 babies Rune and Alcaraz, but also even Sinner (2001) and FAA (2000) and one or two others. But especially for the latter two, if they don't take that next step up soon, they likely never will.
But again, the main point: Novak and Rafa (and previously Roger and Andy), even in coasting or post-peak mode, were/are playing at levels significantly above the rest of the pack, even at their best. The chart above illustrates that either those two have to drop significantly, and/or the young guys need to play at levels that we haven't seen from any non-Big Four player in decades (except for Stan and maybe Del Potro in brief spurts).
Nothing new, just a reiteration of the dominance of three players over the last two decades.
But I wanted to provide a different way of visualizing this, to highlight the problem that the current crop of young top players have faced. Take a look at this chart:
Don't worry about differentiating the "squibbles" of players - the point is to see the way that the top younger players have clustered and peaked out so far, at a level far below even the "floor" of Novak and Rafa. Or to put that another way, only Alex Zverev and Daniil Medvedev have surpassed the 2300 Elo threshold among players born 1993 or later; that's a threshold that Novak hasn't been below since late 2010 (he came close in 2018 at 2302), and Rafa only dipped below this year - other than his struggles in 2015-16 - since the time that he was less dominant off clay, pre-2008.
What is 2300 Elo? Well, if you look at this chart of Peak Elo Ratings, you'll see that only 30 players have reached 2300 Elo during the Open Era. If we want to be a bit more granular, the separate of "all-time greats" seems to occur more around 2350, with only 20 players. Arthur Ashe is a bit above 2350, David Ferrer a bit below - so that provides us with a nice contrast. The drop-off after 2350 is more smooth (I'll probably make a chart depicting this later and add it to the thread).
So the point is, none of the young players have reached levels of performance that matches the "coasting level" of Rafa and Novak. To illustrate that further, consider that the average year-end Elo of the #1 player (in Elo rating) in Open Era history is around 2400. Over the last six years, from 2017 on, that's been about the midline of Novak's and Rafa's performance (Novak mostly a bit above, Rafa mostly a bit below). Meaning, from 2017 on, those two--while past their earlier absolute peak levels--have performance roughly at the level of typical #1 Elo player. None of the current young players have come anywhere close to 2400 Elo. Again, only Medvedev and Zverev have surpassed 2300 Elo...not even Stan Wawrinka (mostly due to inconsistency) reached 2300 Elo, and among other recent players, only Ferrer and Juan Martin Del Potro.
To find another 2300 peak Elo before Del Potro, you have to go back to Andre Agassi and Pete Sampras, and then they are more consistently present going back to the start of the Open Era.
Now a lot of those players listed above--as well as others starting to rise--are very young, and years away from peak age, which historically has tended to be in the 22-28 range, with 24-25 tending to be the most common peak age. Roger turned 22 in 2003 and 28 in 2009, his best year (2006) being at age 24-25; Rafa turned 22 in 2008 and 28 in 2015, a span inclusive of his three best seasons (2008, 10, 13); Novak turned 22 in 2009 and 28 in 2015, which was his absolute peak. Lesser players are similar, with expectedly some outliers.
By the time a player turns 25, in the vast majority of cases, we know who they are: or at least what their peak performance is. Maybe they have their best years after, but in terms of what they're capable of, we've usually already seen it. That means that most of NextGen (born 1994-98ish) are all either turning 25 this year or in the latter half of their 20s. It doesn't mean that someone like Medvedev (27 this year) or Zverev (26 this year) couldn't put their best season together over the next few years, but chances are we won't see a significantly higher Elo from them. The same with Rublev and others.
There's still hope of higher levels from the Millenial Gen (b. 1999-2003), especially the two 2003 babies Rune and Alcaraz, but also even Sinner (2001) and FAA (2000) and one or two others. But especially for the latter two, if they don't take that next step up soon, they likely never will.
But again, the main point: Novak and Rafa (and previously Roger and Andy), even in coasting or post-peak mode, were/are playing at levels significantly above the rest of the pack, even at their best. The chart above illustrates that either those two have to drop significantly, and/or the young guys need to play at levels that we haven't seen from any non-Big Four player in decades (except for Stan and maybe Del Potro in brief spurts).
In a couple of decades the debate about who is the goat will be between Rafa Nadal students.
Their elo scores will be so high that you won’t even be able to keep up. 
Nadal’s legacy is just starting and will continue getting stronger for decades and decades. 
