Is Rafa in Decline?

[Riotbeard]

Nadal was below par last year, losing in the QF of Monte Carlo, QF of Barcelona, won Madrid but lost to Djokovic at Rome.

Nadal also got cramps in the 4th set of the French Open Final, but Djokovic still wasn't good enough to extend the match.

Nadal has been in decline since 2008, but Djokovic still can't beat him at Roland Garros.

Hasn't or can't?

Only a delusional person would say either player put up their best tennis at the RG final last year, so it's hardly proof that novak can't beat a mediocre rafa at RG.

 

[auto-pilot]

^ Djokovic can't do it mentally.
If Djokovic was facing 2008/2010 Nadal, then Nadal's athleticism would be too much for Djokovic.
Whereas nowadays Djokovic is more athletic than Nadal, but it till ain't enough to win.
Because its all mental when they meet at Roland Garros, due to the 6-0 history and the overall aura and mystique of Rafael Leroy Nadal.
The mental barrier is monumental.
That 2013 RG semi only hurt Djokovic, because it told him "No matter how close you get.....it ain't happening" and it also gave Nadal a chance to show off his ability to hit 22 winners in a set.
So I don't think that memory helped Djokovic in 2014.
Of course, Berdych couldn't do it mentally either, so anything is possible - if Nadal stops playing right now and enters the RG semi/final with zero match fitness.

 

[brokenshoelace]

^^^ Honestly, threads have gone to $hit since you've returned. Please tone it down.

 

[El Dude]

The short answer is "Yes," I think so - although I voted "On the Fence" before I read Riotbeard's first post and emphasis on "beginning of the end." I really should have voted yes.

A longer answer is that every player declines in different ways, but one general pattern I see is that truly great players can still reach close to their highest level every once in a while, but it gets harder and harder. Even at Wimbledon last year, Roger ALMOST got there but couldn't quite capture vintage form. The question for Rafa is whether he can regain his movement, because if he can't then the end might happen quicker than we think.

I think the decline for Rafa started in 2012, that the infamous loss to Lukas Rosol at Wimbledon will eventually historically mark the "beginning of the end" for Rafa. Clearly he was great in 2013, but it felt a bit like a swan song rush to the top and he couldn't maintain it. It is possible that he has another rush to the top in him, but if so it will be shorter and less fierce.

Rafa is such an amazing talent that you just never know. I mean I could very well see narrative where he heroically wins at Roland Garros, is invigorated, and dominates the rest of the year. I don't think it will happen but it could. I have learned, however, never to count him out.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

^^you can undo or 'unvote' I think. scroll up where it says "you have already voted on this poll"..

 

[auto-pilot]

The short answer is "Yes," I think so - although I voted "On the Fence" before I read Riotbeard's first post and emphasis on "beginning of the end." I really should have voted yes.

A longer answer is that every player declines in different ways, but one general pattern I see is that truly great players can still reach close to their highest level every once in a while, but it gets harder and harder.

Nadal has been declining on clay since peaking in 2008, but hardcourt has no pattern for him, as he peaked in 2010, declined in 2011/2012 and peaked even higher in 2013.
In 2013 Nadal sustained his best hardcourt form ever when he won 3 masters events (Indian Wells, Canada, Cincy) and US Open.
I don't even recall a man ever doing that.
I know Roddick won Canada, Cincy, US Open, but he didn't win Indian Wells that year.
And it came out of nowhere, because he won zero hardcourt masters shields/slams in 2011 and 2012.
So I wouldn't be surprised if Nadal again dominates hardcourts this year.
After all, 2013 began with him losing a claycourt final to a guy ranked 73.
No limits for Nadal.

 

[brokenshoelace]

The short answer is "Yes," I think so - although I voted "On the Fence" before I read Riotbeard's first post and emphasis on "beginning of the end." I really should have voted yes.

A longer answer is that every player declines in different ways, but one general pattern I see is that truly great players can still reach close to their highest level every once in a while, but it gets harder and harder.

Nadal has been declining on clay since peaking in 2008, but hardcourt has no pattern for him, as he peaked in 2010, declined in 2011/2012 and peaked even higher in 2013.
In 2013 Nadal sustained his best hardcourt form ever when he won 3 masters events (Indian Wells, Canada, Cincy) and US Open.
I don't even recall a man ever doing that.
I know Roddick won Canada, Cincy, US Open, but he didn't win Indian Wells that year.
And it came out of nowhere, because he won zero hardcourt masters shields/slams in 2011 and 2012.
So I wouldn't be surprised if Nadal again dominates hardcourts this year.
After all, 2013 began with him losing a claycourt final to a guy ranked 73.
No limits for Nadal.

Sigh.

 

[DarthFed]

Roger did it 2 straight years. 3 HC MS events in 2005 and 4 MS events on HC counting Madrid 2006, and he also won the YEC in 2006.

 

[Denis]

The really annoying thing about this is that we can't really know if Nadal is really in decline, because we will have to wait until the end of May to actually call it. Even if his claycourt season is as mediocre as it was last year, if he wins RG, he might be declining but who really cares. He's still good enough to win a Slam.

Leaves us stuck with speculation for another 3 months.

If he loses to Ferrer at RG, I'm calling it

 

[TennisFanatic7]

I think we are starting to see it, yes. However, if he stays clear of injuries and keeps getting the matches in I expect him to be at least second favourite again by the time we get to Garros.

 

[El Dude]

Nadal has been declining on clay since peaking in 2008, but hardcourt has no pattern for him, as he peaked in 2010, declined in 2011/2012 and peaked even higher in 2013.
In 2013 Nadal sustained his best hardcourt form ever when he won 3 masters events (Indian Wells, Canada, Cincy) and US Open.
I don't even recall a man ever doing that.
I know Roddick won Canada, Cincy, US Open, but he didn't win Indian Wells that year.
And it came out of nowhere, because he won zero hardcourt masters shields/slams in 2011 and 2012.
So I wouldn't be surprised if Nadal again dominates hardcourts this year.
After all, 2013 began with him losing a claycourt final to a guy ranked 73.
No limits for Nadal.

Rafa didn't decline in 2011 on hardcourt, it is just that he ran into a certain Serbian man who had found a higher level. In other words, the difference between Rafa in 2010 and 2011 is not Rafa, it is Novak. Consider that if you take out his matches against Novak, Rafa was 69-10 in 2010 (2-0 vs. Novak) and 69-9 in 2011 (0-6 vs. Novak). On hard courts against non-Novak opponents Rafa was 38-9 (81%) in 2010 and 33-8 in 2011 (80%). In other words, Rafa was essentially the same player in 2010 and 2011, it is just that Novak was so much better in 2011 than he had been in 2010.

The really annoying thing about this is that we can't really know if Nadal is really in decline, because we will have to wait until the end of May to actually call it. Even if his claycourt season is as mediocre as it was last year, if he wins RG, he might be declining but who really cares. He's still good enough to win a Slam.

Leaves us stuck with speculation for another 3 months.

I don't really agree with this. I've been saying that Indian Wells and Miami will be good barometers. I mean, sure, if Rafa loses at Roland Garros then it becomes a certainty. But I figure that by Indian Wells, certainly Miami, Rafa will have had enough time to work the kinks out, plus he'll be playing off his favored court type. If Rafa does really well at IW/Miami--say, wins one and is in the SF or Final in the other--then I think his fans can rest a bit easier and feel that Rafa is back, at least for the time being, and should do well in the clay court season. But if he struggles at IW/Miami then all bets are off.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

we don't have to wait till the French open to see if he's in decline..we can see it already,

he might win French open again but he can still win stuff and be in decline, (or not as consistently good as he used to be) just like Sampras and Federer did.

another thing is rafa and his injuries/illnesses have clouded the scene..folk like to imagine that he would've been awesome and unbeatable if he had been playing instead of missing in action.

 

[El Dude]

I think we are starting to see it, yes. However, if he stays clear of injuries and keeps getting the matches in I expect him to be at least second favourite again by the time we get to Garros.

I think as long as he's healthy then he's the favorite at Roland Garros until he actually, you know, loses a match there. Let's not forget that:

Rafa at Roland Garros = Best Player Ever (in a specific context)

 

[Kirijax]

Not sure about the other tournaments but the French Open is a whole different ballgame. Nadal could come waddling out with a cane, barely able to walk and then when the match starts, he proceeds to beat the crap out of whoever is masquerading as Count Dooku. Do not be deceived by the hobble, limps and groin grabs. His mojo is strong in Roland Garros.

[video=youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRd9PGmAQUE[/video]

 

[auto-pilot]

Roger did it 2 straight years. 3 HC MS events in 2005 and 4 MS events on HC counting Madrid 2006, and he also won the YEC in 2006.

As I said, Roddick won Canada, Cincy, US Open, but he didn't win Indian Wells that year.
Nadal may be the only man ever to win Indian Wells, Canada, Cincy, US Open.

 

[auto-pilot]

I think we are starting to see it, yes. However, if he stays clear of injuries and keeps getting the matches in I expect him to be at least second favourite again by the time we get to Garros.

We've seen Nadal decline on clay since peaking in 2008, and we saw Nadal decline on hardcourt since peaking in 2010 until he peaked even higher in 2013.
Let's face it, Nadal controls what we see, not 'father time'.

 

[DarthFed]

Roger did it 2 straight years. 3 HC MS events in 2005 and 4 MS events on HC counting Madrid 2006, and he also won the YEC in 2006.

As I said, Roddick won Canada, Cincy, US Open, but he didn't win Indian Wells that year.
Nadal may be the only man ever to win Indian Wells, Canada, Cincy, US Open.

Ah, in that case, who cares? Rafa's best ever HC run has been eclipsed a lot of times by just Federer and Nole anyways.

 

[isabelle]

I'ld be surprised to see Manacor's bull win RG this year...wait and see but even on clay, things become more and more complicated for him

 

[auto-pilot]

Ah, in that case, who cares? Rafa's best ever HC run has been eclipsed a lot of times by just Federer and Nole anyways.

Has Federer ever played as well as Nadal at the US Open?
Nadal's best level at the US Open is higher IMO.

 

[auto-pilot]

I'ld be surprised to see Manacor's bull win RG this year...wait and see but even on clay, things become more and more complicated for him

It was complicated last year when Nadal faced match point in the Rio semi-final to an unknown, lost in QF of Monte Carlo, lost in QF of Barcelona, almost lost Madrid final, lost Rome and defeated Djokovic at Roland Garros in 4.
The odds are Nadal will do better this year.