Is Nadal declining ?

[isabelle]

I guess he's declining on clay since he "only" won RG and Madrid and on grass ....no comments !! Let's see if he can defend his titles this summer but I can't imagine him win the 2 MS + USO, I guess the new married man and the young guns (Dimitrov, Gulbis) 'll stop him to win them all.
Your opinions dear members ?

 

[TsarMatt]

I guess he's declining on clay since he "only" won RG and Madrid

Yeah, he only won one of the four majors of the year. He's definitely declining.

Honestly, I think it is a bit too early to tell. I think we'll see after the season ends.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

He declines for about a month after RG, picks it back up during Canada and sustains it until after the Open, declines again during the fall somewhat, picks it up during AO and through Miami and IW, peaks during the clay court season up to RG...

And the wheel on the bus goes round and round....

 

[Riotbeard]

Is he declining (as in has played consistently better, and will never get back to his absolute peak in terms of consistency and quality)? In my opinion, yes. Doesn't mean isn't still insanely good and very close to his highest level, but if careers and athletic physicality have a peak and then some sort of decline from that, then he if definitely not as good as his absolute best years, and I don't see him having another 2010 or even quite 2013 again. 2 out of 3 majors competed in and 5 masters won't happen again, IMO. He could still win two majors in one year though although next year would be his last really good shot at it.

 

[Moxie]

Is he declining (as in has played consistently better, and will never get back to his absolute peak in terms of consistency and quality)? In my opinion, yes. Doesn't mean isn't still insanely good and very close to his highest level, but if careers and athletic physicality have a peak and then some sort of decline from that, then he if definitely not as good as his absolute best years, and I don't see him having another 2010 or even quite 2013 again. 2 out of 3 majors competed in and 5 masters won't happen again, IMO. He could still win two majors in one year though although next year would be his last really good shot at it.

He could still win 2 majors THIS year, and yes, probably next year would be his last to do it. El Dude gives us statistics for when players peak, plateau and decline. Statistically, Nadal should be in plateau years. Which implies no more than flashes of the former brilliance, but a solid level, and still capable of beating anyone. Which is what we saw, essentially, from Federer at 28. So the diminishment of results seems not surprising, but anyone who thinks he's in a steep decline, (yes, I'm looking at you, isabelle,) is probably fooling themselves.

 

[Fiero425]

Is he declining (as in has played consistently better, and will never get back to his absolute peak in terms of consistency and quality)? In my opinion, yes. Doesn't mean isn't still insanely good and very close to his highest level, but if careers and athletic physicality have a peak and then some sort of decline from that, then he if definitely not as good as his absolute best years, and I don't see him having another 2010 or even quite 2013 again. 2 out of 3 majors competed in and 5 masters won't happen again, IMO. He could still win two majors in one year though although next year would be his last really good shot at it.

He could still win 2 majors THIS year, and yes, probably next year would be his last to do it. El Dude gives us statistics for when players peak, plateau and decline. Statistically, Nadal should be in plateau years. Which implies no more than flashes of the former brilliance, but a solid level, and still capable of beating anyone. Which is what we saw, essentially, from Federer at 28. So the diminishment of results seems not surprising, but anyone who thinks he's in a steep decline, (yes, I'm looking at you, isabelle,) is probably fooling themselves.

Nadal's without a doubt the strangest top player I've ever seen! He goes up, plateaus, then breaks down where he has to take extended time away! He then resurrects himself back to the top only to fall back to the pack after having a career season! It's just bizarre; happening several times! I guess you can say Serena's going through the same thing; just not as extreme! :nono uzzled :angel:

 

[El Dude]

I didn't vote because I disagree with the yes/no duality. Declined from his absolute peak? Sure. He'll still have his moments and tournaments, but chances are he'll never have another 2010 or 2008 or 2013.

But is he significantly worse than he was at his peak? No, at least not on clay or hard courts. He seemingly can't hang on grass any more, which speaks of some decline. And I honestly wonder how he's going to do in hard courts this year, but he is still one of two truly great players right now and better than everyone else - including Roger, Andy, and the rest.

As Moxie pointed out, I've done research that shows that the vast majority of players peak from around 21-26, then plateau from around 27-31, with a steep decline at 32 and after. I don't expect Rafa to be any different, although given his physical style of play wouldn't be surprised if his decline occurs a year or two earlier. But even so, we've got 2-3 years left of plateau, so that's a lot of good tennis left.

 

[Moxie]

Is he declining (as in has played consistently better, and will never get back to his absolute peak in terms of consistency and quality)? In my opinion, yes. Doesn't mean isn't still insanely good and very close to his highest level, but if careers and athletic physicality have a peak and then some sort of decline from that, then he if definitely not as good as his absolute best years, and I don't see him having another 2010 or even quite 2013 again. 2 out of 3 majors competed in and 5 masters won't happen again, IMO. He could still win two majors in one year though although next year would be his last really good shot at it.

He could still win 2 majors THIS year, and yes, probably next year would be his last to do it. El Dude gives us statistics for when players peak, plateau and decline. Statistically, Nadal should be in plateau years. Which implies no more than flashes of the former brilliance, but a solid level, and still capable of beating anyone. Which is what we saw, essentially, from Federer at 28. So the diminishment of results seems not surprising, but anyone who thinks he's in a steep decline, (yes, I'm looking at you, isabelle,) is probably fooling themselves.

Nadal's without a doubt the strangest top player I've ever seen! He goes up, plateaus, then breaks down where he has to take extended time away! He then resurrects himself back to the top only to fall back to the pack after having a career season! It's just bizarre; happening several times! I guess you can say Serena's going through the same thing; just not as extreme! :nono uzzled :angel:

I would refer you to El Dude's blog post:

http://www.tennisfrontier.com/blogs/el-dude/the-big-four-by-winning-percentage/

Nadal is not as inconsistent as you would think. However, I think the Serena comparison is not wrong: sometimes they seem a bit out of the conversation, and then suddenly they're completely back in the game. #don'tcountgreatplayersout.

 

[Fiero425]

Is he declining (as in has played consistently better, and will never get back to his absolute peak in terms of consistency and quality)? In my opinion, yes. Doesn't mean isn't still insanely good and very close to his highest level, but if careers and athletic physicality have a peak and then some sort of decline from that, then he if definitely not as good as his absolute best years, and I don't see him having another 2010 or even quite 2013 again. 2 out of 3 majors competed in and 5 masters won't happen again, IMO. He could still win two majors in one year though although next year would be his last really good shot at it.

He could still win 2 majors THIS year, and yes, probably next year would be his last to do it. El Dude gives us statistics for when players peak, plateau and decline. Statistically, Nadal should be in plateau years. Which implies no more than flashes of the former brilliance, but a solid level, and still capable of beating anyone. Which is what we saw, essentially, from Federer at 28. So the diminishment of results seems not surprising, but anyone who thinks he's in a steep decline, (yes, I'm looking at you, isabelle,) is probably fooling themselves.

Nadal's without a doubt the strangest top player I've ever seen! He goes up, plateaus, then breaks down where he has to take extended time away! He then resurrects himself back to the top only to fall back to the pack after having a career season! It's just bizarre; happening several times! I guess you can say Serena's going through the same thing; just not as extreme! :nono uzzled :angel:

I would refer you to El Dude's blog post:

http://www.tennisfrontier.com/blogs/el-dude/the-big-four-by-winning-percentage/

Nadal is not as inconsistent as you would think. However, I think the Serena comparison is not wrong: sometimes they seem a bit out of the conversation, and then suddenly they're completely back in the game. #don'tcountgreatplayersout.

Well everyone needs to get off the "Big 4" stuff; esp. since Murray has dropped to #10 in the world! He lost a lot of points and if he doesn't do well this HC season, he might fall out of the top 20! :nono :snigger :angel: That's what happens to players who have a nice spurt of wins, but can't defend the titles! I can't imagine anyone thinking he could keep it up; esp. since Lendl dropped out as the coach! :angel:

 

[Moxie]

Is he declining (as in has played consistently better, and will never get back to his absolute peak in terms of consistency and quality)? In my opinion, yes. Doesn't mean isn't still insanely good and very close to his highest level, but if careers and athletic physicality have a peak and then some sort of decline from that, then he if definitely not as good as his absolute best years, and I don't see him having another 2010 or even quite 2013 again. 2 out of 3 majors competed in and 5 masters won't happen again, IMO. He could still win two majors in one year though although next year would be his last really good shot at it.

He could still win 2 majors THIS year, and yes, probably next year would be his last to do it. El Dude gives us statistics for when players peak, plateau and decline. Statistically, Nadal should be in plateau years. Which implies no more than flashes of the former brilliance, but a solid level, and still capable of beating anyone. Which is what we saw, essentially, from Federer at 28. So the diminishment of results seems not surprising, but anyone who thinks he's in a steep decline, (yes, I'm looking at you, isabelle,) is probably fooling themselves.

Nadal's without a doubt the strangest top player I've ever seen! He goes up, plateaus, then breaks down where he has to take extended time away! He then resurrects himself back to the top only to fall back to the pack after having a career season! It's just bizarre; happening several times! I guess you can say Serena's going through the same thing; just not as extreme! :nono uzzled :angel:

I would refer you to El Dude's blog post:

http://www.tennisfrontier.com/blogs/el-dude/the-big-four-by-winning-percentage/

Nadal is not as inconsistent as you would think. However, I think the Serena comparison is not wrong: sometimes they seem a bit out of the conversation, and then suddenly they're completely back in the game. #don'tcountgreatplayersout.

Well everyone needs to get off the "Big 4" stuff; esp. since Murray has dropped to #10 in the world! He lost a lot of points and if he doesn't do well this HC season, he might fall out of the top 20! :nono :snigger :angel: That's what happens to players who have a nice spurt of wins, but can't defend the titles! I can't imagine anyone thinking he could keep it up; esp. since Lendl dropped out as the coach! :angel:

"Spurt of wins?!" Give me a break. Murray has been consistent for at least 5 years. A rankings drop because of injury is not that shocking, or without precedent. It's the "also-rans" that come up with a "spurt of wins." Or, worse, a big upset, and then no follow up. Until someone makes a big and consistent name for himself, I'm going to still talk about the Big 4, if you don't mind.

 

[Mile]

too early to judge. He was written off two years ago because of injury, next year he made to top and win a lot. Will be more clear to the end of this season.

 

[Fiero425]

He could still win 2 majors THIS year, and yes, probably next year would be his last to do it. El Dude gives us statistics for when players peak, plateau and decline. Statistically, Nadal should be in plateau years. Which implies no more than flashes of the former brilliance, but a solid level, and still capable of beating anyone. Which is what we saw, essentially, from Federer at 28. So the diminishment of results seems not surprising, but anyone who thinks he's in a steep decline, (yes, I'm looking at you, isabelle,) is probably fooling themselves.

Nadal's without a doubt the strangest top player I've ever seen! He goes up, plateaus, then breaks down where he has to take extended time away! He then resurrects himself back to the top only to fall back to the pack after having a career season! It's just bizarre; happening several times! I guess you can say Serena's going through the same thing; just not as extreme! :nono uzzled :angel:

I would refer you to El Dude's blog post:

http://www.tennisfrontier.com/blogs/el-dude/the-big-four-by-winning-percentage/

Nadal is not as inconsistent as you would think. However, I think the Serena comparison is not wrong: sometimes they seem a bit out of the conversation, and then suddenly they're completely back in the game. #don'tcountgreatplayersout.

Well everyone needs to get off the "Big 4" stuff; esp. since Murray has dropped to #10 in the world! He lost a lot of points and if he doesn't do well this HC season, he might fall out of the top 20! :nono :snigger :angel: That's what happens to players who have a nice spurt of wins, but can't defend the titles! I can't imagine anyone thinking he could keep it up; esp. since Lendl dropped out as the coach! :angel:

"Spurt of wins?!" Give me a break. Murray has been consistent for at least 5 years. A rankings drop because of injury is not that shocking, or without precedent. It's the "also-rans" that come up with a "spurt of wins." Or, worse, a big upset, and then no follow up. Until someone makes a big and consistent name for himself, I'm going to still talk about the Big 4, if you don't mind.

"Spurt" of major wins genius; an Olympic medal, a USO, ending in Wimbledon! All that happened in a year's time! That's called a spurt! uzzled :nono :angel: When will you learn I know what I'm talking about? It was the spurt of wins that propelled Roger back to #1, but even Murray never came close, so how consistent was he that he's dropped to 10? Nadal never fell below 5 and was gone longer! HELLO; wake up! :clap Snap out of it! :lolz: :laydownlaughing :snigger :angel:

 

[Riotbeard]

Nadal's without a doubt the strangest top player I've ever seen! He goes up, plateaus, then breaks down where he has to take extended time away! He then resurrects himself back to the top only to fall back to the pack after having a career season! It's just bizarre; happening several times! I guess you can say Serena's going through the same thing; just not as extreme! :nono uzzled :angel:

I would refer you to El Dude's blog post:

http://www.tennisfrontier.com/blogs/el-dude/the-big-four-by-winning-percentage/

Nadal is not as inconsistent as you would think. However, I think the Serena comparison is not wrong: sometimes they seem a bit out of the conversation, and then suddenly they're completely back in the game. #don'tcountgreatplayersout.

Well everyone needs to get off the "Big 4" stuff; esp. since Murray has dropped to #10 in the world! He lost a lot of points and if he doesn't do well this HC season, he might fall out of the top 20! :nono :snigger :angel: That's what happens to players who have a nice spurt of wins, but can't defend the titles! I can't imagine anyone thinking he could keep it up; esp. since Lendl dropped out as the coach! :angel:

"Spurt of wins?!" Give me a break. Murray has been consistent for at least 5 years. A rankings drop because of injury is not that shocking, or without precedent. It's the "also-rans" that come up with a "spurt of wins." Or, worse, a big upset, and then no follow up. Until someone makes a big and consistent name for himself, I'm going to still talk about the Big 4, if you don't mind.

"Spurt" of major wins genius; an Olympic medal, a USO, ending in Wimbledon! All that happened in a year's time! That's called a spurt! uzzled :nono :angel: When will you learn I know what I'm talking about? It was the spurt of wins that propelled Roger back to #1, but even Murray never came close, so how consistent was he that he's dropped to 10? Nadal never fell below 5 and was gone longer! HELLO; wake up! :clap Snap out of it! :lolz: :laydownlaughing :snigger :angel:

With the amount of emoticons, you would think moxie had proposed that Andy Murray could fly or something. Andy is still trying to find himself since coming back from surgery, both mentally and physically. He has been seriously in the mix for five or six years and to propose that he is merely a flash in the pan is just silly.

It is nice to see some parity though. Finally a nadal thread derailed by someone agenda about another player :snigger.

 

[Fiero425]

I would refer you to El Dude's blog post:

http://www.tennisfrontier.com/blogs/el-dude/the-big-four-by-winning-percentage/

Nadal is not as inconsistent as you would think. However, I think the Serena comparison is not wrong: sometimes they seem a bit out of the conversation, and then suddenly they're completely back in the game. #don'tcountgreatplayersout.

Well everyone needs to get off the "Big 4" stuff; esp. since Murray has dropped to #10 in the world! He lost a lot of points and if he doesn't do well this HC season, he might fall out of the top 20! :nono :snigger :angel: That's what happens to players who have a nice spurt of wins, but can't defend the titles! I can't imagine anyone thinking he could keep it up; esp. since Lendl dropped out as the coach! :angel:

"Spurt of wins?!" Give me a break. Murray has been consistent for at least 5 years. A rankings drop because of injury is not that shocking, or without precedent. It's the "also-rans" that come up with a "spurt of wins." Or, worse, a big upset, and then no follow up. Until someone makes a big and consistent name for himself, I'm going to still talk about the Big 4, if you don't mind.

"Spurt" of major wins genius; an Olympic medal, a USO, ending in Wimbledon! All that happened in a year's time! That's called a spurt! uzzled :nono :angel: When will you learn I know what I'm talking about? It was the spurt of wins that propelled Roger back to #1, but even Murray never came close, so how consistent was he that he's dropped to 10? Nadal never fell below 5 and was gone longer! HELLO; wake up! :clap Snap out of it! :lolz: :laydownlaughing :snigger :angel:

With the amount of emoticons, you would think moxie had proposed that Andy Murray could fly or something. Andy is still trying to find himself since coming back from surgery, both mentally and physically. He has been seriously in the mix for five or six years and to propose that he is merely a flash in the pan is just silly.

It is nice to see some parity though. Finally a nadal thread derailed by someone agenda about another player :snigger.

I never thought Murray was a "flash in the pan," but it did promote my past theory of the ATP being kind of gutless; unable to knock off even one of these guys! It took surgery to significantly make a change in the top echelon so they still can't take a bow! Wawrinka's the first one to break through the glass ceiling of the big 4 since the last decade! Delpo has to be thought of as an "also ran" because he hasn't backed up his USO from '09 even with Nadal and Murray out for extended periods! (Ferrer was just a placeholder at #4 before others try to correct me again)

 

[nehmeth]

Is he declining (as in has played consistently better, and will never get back to his absolute peak in terms of consistency and quality)? In my opinion, yes. Doesn't mean isn't still insanely good and very close to his highest level, but if careers and athletic physicality have a peak and then some sort of decline from that, then he if definitely not as good as his absolute best years, and I don't see him having another 2010 or even quite 2013 again. 2 out of 3 majors competed in and 5 masters won't happen again, IMO. He could still win two majors in one year though although next year would be his last really good shot at it.

He could still win 2 majors THIS year, and yes, probably next year would be his last to do it. El Dude gives us statistics for when players peak, plateau and decline. Statistically, Nadal should be in plateau years. Which implies no more than flashes of the former brilliance, but a solid level, and still capable of beating anyone. Which is what we saw, essentially, from Federer at 28. So the diminishment of results seems not surprising, but anyone who thinks he's in a steep decline, (yes, I'm looking at you, isabelle,) is probably fooling themselves.

I checked the OP and there was no comment of a precipitous drop. :nono Still, plateaued is a better word than 'in decline'.

With the time off between now and the U.S. hard court season, I think he will fix what is missing in his serve, and make a good run at the U.S. Open. It will be difficult for him to repeat last year's results, but if anyone can do it, Rafa can.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Is he declining (as in has played consistently better, and will never get back to his absolute peak in terms of consistency and quality)? In my opinion, yes. Doesn't mean isn't still insanely good and very close to his highest level, but if careers and athletic physicality have a peak and then some sort of decline from that, then he if definitely not as good as his absolute best years, and I don't see him having another 2010 or even quite 2013 again. 2 out of 3 majors competed in and 5 masters won't happen again, IMO. He could still win two majors in one year though although next year would be his last really good shot at it.

He could still win 2 majors THIS year, and yes, probably next year would be his last to do it. El Dude gives us statistics for when players peak, plateau and decline. Statistically, Nadal should be in plateau years. Which implies no more than flashes of the former brilliance, but a solid level, and still capable of beating anyone. Which is what we saw, essentially, from Federer at 28. So the diminishment of results seems not surprising, but anyone who thinks he's in a steep decline, (yes, I'm looking at you, isabelle,) is probably fooling themselves.

I checked the OP and there was no comment of a precipitous drop. :nono Still, plateaued is a better word than in decline.

With the time off between now and the U.S. hard court season, I think he will fix what is missing in his serve, and make a good run at the U.S. Open. It will be difficult for him to repeat last year's results, but if anyone can do it, Rafa can.

You should not use clichés like that. Rafa has never defended any title away from clay
in his entire career. So, it best to say, if any one cannot defend, it will be Rafa.

 

[TennisFanatic7]

Slightly, yes, but there was no way he was ever going to emulate what he managed last year. Nobody could be expected to, realistically.

The decline has begun. Many people think that, due to the physical nature of his game, it will hit him harder than someone with a less brutal style of play, and on paper, I agree with them. However, this is Rafael Nadal we're talking about so I'll believe it when I see it.

I still expect him to go into all of the slams this year and next as one of the favourites. After that, we'll see how it goes.

 

[nehmeth]

I checked the OP and there was no comment of a precipitous drop. :nono Still, plateaued is a better word than in decline.

With the time off between now and the U.S. hard court season, I think he will fix what is missing in his serve, and make a good run at the U.S. Open. It will be difficult for him to repeat last year's results, but if anyone can do it, Rafa can.

You should not use clichés like that. Rafa has never defended any title away from clay
in his entire career. So, it best to say, if any one cannot defend, it will be Rafa.

:-/ Ouch.

 

[Moxie]

I checked the OP and there was no comment of a precipitous drop. :nono Still, plateaued is a better word than in decline.

With the time off between now and the U.S. hard court season, I think he will fix what is missing in his serve, and make a good run at the U.S. Open. It will be difficult for him to repeat last year's results, but if anyone can do it, Rafa can.

You should not use clichés like that. Rafa has never defended any title away from clay
in his entire career. So, it best to say, if any one cannot defend, it will be Rafa.

:-/ Ouch.

Oh, don't mind GSM, nehmeth. While the letter of what he said is true, the spirit of what you said is true, too. You recently took us through the litany of the things that Novak had "never" done against Rafa, until he did them. Both are great champions, and one counts them out at their peril. Now, I agree it is virtually impossible for Nadal to repeat the Canada-Cincy-USO trifecta, I'm hoping for some quality results, and of course, the defense of the US Open title. Far from impossible.

 

[Kieran]

You should not use clichés like that. Rafa has never defended any title away from clay
in his entire career. So, it best to say, if any one cannot defend, it will be Rafa.

The only horrible thing I can say in reply to this is, it's true! :lolz: :clap :laydownlaughing

But let's not write young Ralph off too quickly, folks. I'm seeing a lot of silliness above, akin to bandwagonism. We tend to be kneejerk on this forum: an unknown kid has a good tourney and we run polls on how many slams they'll get. I'm still getting giggles outta JJ.

The great Nadal has a slow year, and we get all the naysayers out, certain that his best is behind him.

His best may yet to be. I certainly don't see anything to fear for him, going forward, if his body holds up...