How will Rafa and Novak age?

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

|^^naah. federers 2012 is up there. so that breaks up your 2010 till now bubble.

 

[El Dude]

|^^naah. federers 2012 is up there. so that breaks up your 2010 till now bubble.

2012 was the magical Year of the Big Four - the year that they were the most balanced, with each winning a Slam. That said, in terms of overall trends and performance, Roger has been a step behind Rafa and/or Novak since 2010.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

^^over the whole 4years yes I agree..but 2012 roger is on a par.

 

[El Dude]

^^over the whole 4years yes I agree..but 2012 roger is on a par.

Agreed!

 

[DarthFed]

Who in the world would argue Roger is playing better in 2014 than 2012? 2014 is still his 2nd worst year out of the last 12 no?

This continues to be off-topic, but I will say that the way you say this overstates 2014 as being poor. If you compare it to 2011, for instance, the only difference is that in 2011 he went out in a Slam QF vs. a Slam 4R, and he won the WTF. That's one round difference at a Slam--otherwise the same results (2 SFs, one F) and to be honest, I prefer this year's results overall because the 4R was at Roland Garros vs. the QF at Wimbledon. Also, his Masters results have been better this year - both years he had one win, but this year he's been to three other finals, whereas in 2011 he only made the one final that he won.

He also still has a chance at two more Masters and of course the WTF is still to be determined, so I'd say that if Roger wins the WTF this year--or even another Masters--then he's had a better year overall than 2011.

Yes but when you dig further into the stats it shows that Rafa just always owned him on clay. It took until 2008 for Rafa to make serious inroads off of it and after that it's been cake as Roger really hasn't put up much of a fight at a slam since 2009 AO (and even that was not much when we factor in Roger's level and the 5th set).

Yes, true. 2008 was also the year that Rafa became a more well-rounded player. As I've said before, Roger was the dominant player from 2004-07, but they were co-dominators in 2008-09, before it became Nadal and Djokovic as the two best from 2010 on.

I will agree that 2014 and 2011 are kind of neck and neck but I think Roger at the slams was quite a bit stronger in 2011 even if the results don't show it. In 2011 he played a solid semi against an otherworldly Nole while this year he just got blown out by Rafa. In 2011 he ended Nole's streak at RG and then was a point away from the USO final while this year he got blown out in straights by Cilic. if Roger wins the YEC then it's really about dead even, possibly slight edge to 2014 because his results aside from slams have clearly been better this year.

 

[brokenshoelace]

One thing is for sure, Nadal's 3rd best AO ever was 2014 :clap
And Nadal's 2014 French Open was better than his 2013 and 2011 French Opens :clap
And Nadal's 2014 Wimbledon was better than his 2013 and 2012 Wimbledons :clap

Oh dear lord...

 

[brokenshoelace]

As far as level is concerned, I'd say Roger was a bit better at the slams in 2011 than 2014, with the exception of maybe Wimbledon.

On the other hand, I wouldn't call Roger's decline "rapid" by any stretch of the imagination. I don't care to argue, because I'll never be convinced.

 

[lacatch]

RE: RAFA: He is clearly in the plateau stage with increasing frequency of injuries. I personally think that, while real, he "extends" his time outs from injuries to rest up for the clay season when he makes a killing, and then is iffy for the rest of the year. On another thread someone mentioned that he missed RG in 2004 I think it was--but other than that has NEVER had an injury time off during the clay season (right after it, yes).

RE: NOVAK: I don't think he's declining physically--I think he's distracted with wedding/baby. And while certainly a tough competitor, he doesn't have the ability to block out what else is going on in his life. He's a more emotional player than either Fed or Rafa. I personally don't think he'll be "back", i.e., resume his winning ways, before AO 2015.

 

[Moxie]

As to Rafa and Novak aging, I don't necessarily agree with the point that they'll hit rapid decline. Rafa has already gotten a tad slower, indicating incremental decline. And as you've shown us in other comparative graphs, Dude, he has an odd career arc, due to injury absences. I think Novak's strict stretching regime (which I believe has been life-long) will help off-set the physicality of his game.

If, at 31-32, Rafa starts getting diminishing returns for his effort, he might start thinking about that fishing boat. Novak, who hasn't really made a secret of chasing the Fedal records, could stay healthy and find the motivation in that. Or, he may answer the double-Siren call of family and the career that surely awaits him in front of the camera, but without a racquet in his hand.

 

[El Dude]

Moxie, good stuff - I think you are right. One thing this all brings to mind is that a player might have the ability to play at a high level deep into their 30s, but not the motivation - especially when family starts taking greater primacy. Maybe Cali is right, and aging alone isn't as large a factor as motivation, drive, etc.

Novak will make a great commentator. Maybe he can replace Johnny Mac.

 

[Moxie]

Moxie, good stuff - I think you are right. One thing this all brings to mind is that a player might have the ability to play at a high level deep into their 30s, but not the motivation - especially when family starts taking greater primacy. Maybe Cali is right, and aging alone isn't as large a factor as motivation, drive, etc.

Novak will make a great commentator. Maybe he can replace Johnny Mac.

For guys (and the gals, like Serena) who have achieved so much, one of the great mysteries is what keeps them training hard and traveling the globe, chasing the fuzzy yellow ball, and the elusive hardware at the end of the rainbow. I will bring Roger back in here: it's astonishing that he still enjoys it and is willing to drag the whole clan and entourage around. He clearly loves his job. Rafa is more of a home-body, I think, but he's built for competition, and will play as long as he feels competitive. We'll see how Novak adjusts to fatherhood, as he's an emotional guy. He's used to having Jelena with him, and that probably won't be possible at least until Bercy, etc. But, in the new year, they may have a jet-setting baby, too, and he just carries on as usual.

I'm not sure if Cali is right, because I really don't understand what he's trying to say about age not being the issue. Surely, it's not the ONLY issue, as players lose a bit physically. However, they do gain a lot in maturity, which helps in tennis. But, for the top achieving players, the question does become motivation. What are you still playing for?

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

they just enjoy playing tennis..at least Federer has said so enough times.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here is a complete proof by numbers of Roger's "decline" from 2013.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

^^saw that on atp site, v interesting..esp the over 30yrs players with most wins.

 

[El Dude]

Here is a complete proof by numbers of Roger's "decline" from 2013.

Again, in 2013 it looked like he was falling apart but it became clear that this was due to lingering injury, and a resulting loss of confidence, than actual age-related decline. I think that, overall, Roger has been in plateau mode from about 2010 to the present, with some fluctuations (e.g. most of 2012).

 

[Riotbeard]

Novak will ascend into the heavens at age 30. Rapid decline by raptured ascension.

In reality, no clue. As much as I hate to agree with Kieran. I think Novak will decline when he can no longer find bursts of interest. Not sure when that will be.

In 2-3 or years rafa's injures will catch up to him, and his style will become untenable. Rafa's has the talent to step in the court not play so physical, but I don't see him being able to make the mental change to play that way and stem his decline.

 

[Bounce It !!]

RE: RAFA: He is clearly in the plateau stage with increasing frequency of injuries. I personally think that, while real, he "extends" his time outs from injuries to rest up for the clay season when he makes a killing, and then is iffy for the rest of the year. On another thread someone mentioned that he missed RG in 2004 I think it was--but other than that has NEVER had an injury time off during the clay season (right after it, yes).

RE: NOVAK: I don't think he's declining physically--I think he's distracted with wedding/baby. And while certainly a tough competitor, he doesn't have the ability to block out what else is going on in his life. He's a more emotional player than either Fed or Rafa. I personally don't think he'll be "back", i.e., resume his winning ways, before AO 2015.

I agree as to Novak, any decline in the last two years in his performances, ie #of GS, MS titles, have been of the non-physical type, distractions, mental block etc. However, given his all out physical game, and his Gumby like attributes, HC sliding open stance with power off both wings, his game will eventually run into Mr. Bill, aka Father Time, and the results will suffer, missing shots, 1-2 steps late, etc even with the good fortune to having avoided any major injury. I think the physical decline will start to show at 28-29. His results/ranking will suffer, as it is his Gimby like attributes that allows him to excel. Further, the decline might be more troublesome if his non-physical blocks kick in when his body won't let him be Gumby anymore.