General Ruminations --- 2016 ATP Season.

[GameSetAndMath]

Now that, we got the "Specific Predictions" thread out separately, let us just talk generally about
the 2016 season and what it might bring.

Almost everyone expects Novak to remain at the top in 2016. He probably win at least 2 slams
and at least 4 masters and finish YE #1. So, let us talk about other aspects.

Federer despite the age is clearly playing good and winning once in a while against Novak, at least on fast court. Vamos has got his confidence back due to the incline and may make a serious push. Andy buoyed by his #2 ranking and the DC bounce (I am assuming UK wins) might play better. Stan has proved that he is not a one-trick pony. Despite being unpredictable, Stan has definitely matured as a top player and is holding on to his top 5 rankings. I expect fierce competition between these four (not necessarily in a direct manner) for the leftovers from Novak. In other words, the race between these four players might be very tight. The numbers #2 through #5 might be like a musical chair with these four occupying them in different order at different points of time in the season.

Unfortunately, no young players seem to make major mark and this might continue next year also.

 

[nehmeth]

Well, I am wondering if 2016 isn't the year the guys in their early to middle twenties begin to supplant the older folk now residing in the top 20.

I was pleased to see Tomic get his act together this year. He is still limited in his movement, and his fitness is lacking. It's my hope that he uses the down time to prepare for the coming year.

Benoit Paire. He's hugely talented and a very good athlete. Consistency needs work and I think he needs to add a couple pounds of muscle to his frame. He gained a lot of confidence in 2015, even in some of his losses he kept it competitive against some of the best.

Dominic Thiem is up there too and I can see him making a push forward.

Then there is Sock and Dimitrov. These two are question marks for me.

Sock has a lot of heart. He's got some solid shots, but his consistency and shot selection during a match is somewhat baffling. Can he make a run up the standings? Sure, but I'm not confident yet that he will.

Dimitrov has all the talent in the world, but doesn't seem to have the focus to get back to where he was. These different 'love interests' since Maria are a concern. Davin must be pulling his hair out. I am thinking he either stays where he is or he drops even more. :cover

Raonic, Nishi - two guys who I think will always have issues with injuries. Hopefully 2016 will be a better year for both.

And Goffin? The kid hits well, has fight, but he's so darn little. Would be nice if he had a little late growth spurt. Murray will crush him in the Davis Cup.

 

[Kieran]

Now that, we got the "Specific Predictions" thread out separately, let us just talk generally about
the 2016 season and what it might bring.

Almost everyone expects Novak to remain at the top in 2016. He probably win at least 2 slams
and at least 4 masters and finish YE #1. So, let us talk about other aspects.

Federer despite the age is clearly playing good and winning once in a while against Novak, at least on fast court. Vamos has got his confidence back due to the incline and may make a serious push. Andy buoyed by his #2 ranking and the DC bounce (I am assuming UK wins) might play better. Stan has proved that he is not a one-trick pony. Despite being unpredictable, Stan has definitely matured as a top player and is holding on to his top 5 rankings. I expect fierce competition between these four (not necessarily in a direct manner) for the leftovers from Novak. In other words, the race between these four players might be very tight. The numbers #2 through #5 might be like a musical chair with these four occupying them in different order at different points of time in the season.

Unfortunately, no young players seem to make major mark and this might continue next year also.

What's seldom is wonderful, but I agree..

I think of the younger kids, Coric might rise quickest and next year could see him make his mark at a slam. I like his temperament, which is the crucial part in making champs. Nick went AWOL and really needs to settle his brain, but his potential is massive. We can only hope. I think Tomic has maxed already, and even if he stays consistent, he's not a player I'd expect to see challenging for slams.

By the way, anybody hear remember a bloke called "JJ"? A moral tale, personified...

 

[herios]

I think Tomic has maxed already, and even if he stays consistent, he's not a player I'd expect to see challenging for slams.

By the way, anybody hear remember a bloke called "JJ"? A moral tale, personified...

These days, in tennis, players do not max out at Bernie's age (23). Therefore I agree with nehmeth and not with you.
Bernie needs to put in the physical training and that is doable. It is just a matter of will.

 

[Kieran]

I think Tomic has maxed already, and even if he stays consistent, he's not a player I'd expect to see challenging for slams.

By the way, anybody hear remember a bloke called "JJ"? A moral tale, personified...

These days, in tennis, players do not max out at Bernie's age (23). Therefore I agree with nehmeth and not with you.
Bernie needs to put in the physical training and that is doable. It is just a matter of will.

Players have maxed out even younger, and older. There's no law of Max, but when I look at Tomic, I don't see a bloke who's going to set the world alight. He's doing his very best now, and won't do much better.

Imho...

 

[herios]

I think Tomic has maxed already, and even if he stays consistent, he's not a player I'd expect to see challenging for slams.

By the way, anybody hear remember a bloke called "JJ"? A moral tale, personified...

These days, in tennis, players do not max out at Bernie's age (23). Therefore I agree with nehmeth and not with you.
Bernie needs to put in the physical training and that is doable. It is just a matter of will.

Players have maxed out even younger, and older. There's no law of Max, but when I look at Tomic, I don't see a bloke who's going to set the world alight. He's doing his very best now, and won't do much better.

Imho...

I agree that there is no written in stone age to when they do max out, but if we are looking at all the active players currently on tour who are 28+, you will have hard time giving me examples of players who have maxed out below let say 25. This is today's reality. I am not talking about the past.

 

[Kieran]

We'll see, nobody can really tell the future. I remember I felt that Djoker losing to melzer in Paris and Berdych at Wimbledon in 2010 showed only that his frailties were habitual and insurmountable. Duh. But with Tomic, I see nothing like the same potential. Plus, he's still associating with his crazy dad. Who can blame him? But it doesn't bode well. He's shown form now which I think is bound to be only a temporary thing...

 

[Mile]

No change of guards will happen, opposite. Three kings will rule on.

 

[Kirijax]

No change of guards will happen, opposite. Three kings will rule on.

There is only one king right now.

 

[nehmeth]

I think of the younger kids, Coric might rise quickest and next year could see him make his mark at a slam. I like his temperament, which is the crucial part in making champs. Nick went AWOL and really needs to settle his brain, but his potential is massive. We can only hope. I think Tomic has maxed already, and even if he stays consistent, he's not a player I'd expect to see challenging for slams.

By the way, anybody hear remember a bloke called "JJ"? A moral tale, personified...

JJ has no groundstrokes, no consistency. He lives and dies by his serve.

Tomic probably will not win a slam, but I don't think he's reached his potential yet. I believe he can become a top ten player, if he works on his footwork and conditioning. Cutting the cord with his father would probably help.

I've been encouraged to wait on Coric to see how he matures.

 

[El Dude]

Tomic seems in that group with Goffin and Sock as future #10-20 guys. Simon/Isner/Robredo types.

As for this notion of players peaking later, I think it is a bit premature to say that is the case. These things fluctuate over time. Some of it is changing styles of play, but a lot of it--the lion's share, I would hazard to speculate--is directly linked to the specific players on tour, and the rise and fall of different "talent waves." Right now the bulk of talent is in the 27-30 age group. It isn't that these players are just now peaking, but that they are an especially strong group of players with a very weak generation coming up behind.

 

[El Dude]

As for predictions (can't seem to find the thread mentioned in the OP), here are some:

*Novak wins 2 Slams. Not 3, certainly not 4, but 2. He has his overall third best year but drops noticeably from 2015 (how can he not?). 3-4 Masters, probably WTF and keeps the #1 ranking.
*One of Rafa or Roger wins a Slam. Not Andy.
*A new Slam champion! Hmm...maybe not.
*A new Masters champion! That sounds better.
*Coric and Zverev continue to rise, as does Pouille. Kyrgios stalls out, shows glimmers of Janowiczitis, struggles for another year or two then comes back stronger in his mid-20s, but as more of a second tier player. Chung and Kokkinakis move more slowly. Tomic, Sock and Goffin stabilize as fixtures in the 10-20 range, joined by Vesely. These guys start taking their share of 250s and 500s.
*Thiem starts head-hunting top 20 opponents. I don't know exactly what this means, but it sounds cool. By year's end he is the highest ranked Frenchman on tour (EDIT: If he were actually French, that is), ahead of Gasquet, Tsonga, and Monfils, all of whom decline. You heard it here first.
*Grigor's back! Really. Hmm. Maybe. I think he is his typical self for much of the year then later, maybe by mid-year, something clicks and he surges up the rankings and finishes back in or near the top 10, preparing for a strong 2017.
*Outside of the top 100, big risers among young guns include Edmund, Donaldson, Ymer, Fritz, Tiafoe, and Rublev - all of whom make it into the top 100, and then some.
*Possible retirees: Robredo, Haas, Stepanek, Youzhny. Ivo keeps going.
*Overall we see the beginnings of a noticeable "tidal shift" towards younger players. By year's end, the number of under 21 players in the top 100 doubles from this year (from 6 to a dozen or so). We also see some of the older top 20 regulars start to trickle out as they are replaced (or rather, pushed out) by younger players.

 

[herios]

*Thiem starts head-hunting top 20 opponents. I don't know exactly what this means, but it sounds cool. By year's end he is the highest ranked Frenchman on tour, ahead of Gasquet, Tsonga, and Monfils, all of whom decline. You heard it here first.
*

Is Thiem moving to France?

 

[El Dude]

Herios, for better or worse I can always rely on you to catch my errors. For some reason I thought Thiem was French - forgive me for offending your exacting sensibilities.

 

[herios]

Herios, for better or worse I can always rely on you to catch my errors. For some reason I thought Thiem was French - forgive me for offending your exacting sensibilities.

When I am going to apply for an auditor job, may I use you for reference?

Thiem should and I think will progress, but how far the next year is to be seen. He is the youngest player on tour to win an ATP event and that is a measuring stick for me.
Based on that he falls short for a future GS winner, unless he pulls the Wawrinka (late bloomer, who wins his first GS way past the average).
All the other 7 GS winners who are active on tour, from Hewitt to Cilic, have won a title, before turning 20. Thiem won it at 21. That is even later than Milos, who was 20.

 

[El Dude]

Haha, sure. "This guy follows me around on message boards, correcting my factual errors...hire him, he's good." ;-)

Anyhow, good stat about Thiem. I didn't even look at age of the first title. That would be an interesting criteria to add into a more exhaustive study....maybe I'll add it in.

That said, recent years might be deceptive because due to the dominance of the Big Four in the big tournaments, it may be that the second tier players have been more strongly active in 250s and 500s...I don't know this for certain, but it is a hunch. You have players like David Ferrer more active in those tournaments than he might have otherwise been if the big tournaments were more up for grabs.

 

[herios]

Anyhow, good stat about Thiem. I didn't even look at age of the first title. That would be an interesting criteria to add into a more exhaustive study....maybe I'll add it in.

That said, recent years might be deceptive because due to the dominance of the Big Four in the big tournaments, it may be that the second tier players have been more strongly active in 250s and 500s...I don't know this for certain, but it is a hunch. You have players like David Ferrer more active in those tournaments than he might have otherwise been if the big tournaments were more up for grabs.

I will also do more analysis on this subject, because I think an age shift has occurred.
On my criteria for future GS winners they usually win ATP events before turning 20, the only one in the "lost generation" to qualify is Kei Nishikori. He won in Delray Beach at 18.
And based on any criteria you may apply, Nishioka will not be as good player as Kei. Nishioka has turned 20 recently and he is yet to break into the top 120.

 

[herios]

As for predictions (can't seem to find the thread mentioned in the OP), here are some:

*Novak wins 2 Slams. Not 3, certainly not 4, but 2. He has his overall third best year but drops noticeably from 2015 (how can he not?). 3-4 Masters, probably WTF and keeps the #1 ranking.
*One of Rafa or Roger wins a Slam. Not Andy.
*A new Slam champion! Hmm...maybe not.

Based on the last 2 years results, and I do think those are more relevant than the previous years, I would give to Stan Wawrinka even chances to win another slam with Roger and Rafa.

 

[El Dude]

As for predictions (can't seem to find the thread mentioned in the OP), here are some:

*Novak wins 2 Slams. Not 3, certainly not 4, but 2. He has his overall third best year but drops noticeably from 2015 (how can he not?). 3-4 Masters, probably WTF and keeps the #1 ranking.
*One of Rafa or Roger wins a Slam. Not Andy.
*A new Slam champion! Hmm...maybe not.

Based on the last 2 years results, and I do think those are more relevant than the previous years, I would give to Stan Wawrinka even chances to win another slam with Roger and Rafa.

Yeah, I can agree with that. And in actuality, Andy probably is right there as well. I see a few groups with regards to those who have more than a "snowball's chance" of winning a Slam in 2016:

Probably: Novak
Maybe: Rafa, Roger, Stan, Andy
Probably not but it could happen!: Kei, Marin, Grigor, Milos, Kevin A, maybe one or two others
Almost definitely not, but could happen: Everyone else

After Novak, Rafa probably has the best chance of winning a Slam, if only because of Roland Garros. I'd say he's about 50-50 next year of winning at least one Slam. Everyone else has a less than even chance. Maybe Roger, Stan and Andy are all in the 20-30% range. Novak would be 80% or so - about as high as one could reasonably project. I'd probably say that Novak has a better chance of winning at least two Slams than any other specific player has of winning a single Slam.

 

[herios]

After Novak, Rafa probably has the best chance of winning a Slam, if only because of Roland Garros. I'd say he's about 50-50 next year of winning at least one Slam. Everyone else has a less than even chance. Maybe Roger, Stan and Andy are all in the 20-30% range. Novak would be 80% or so - about as high as one could reasonably project. I'd probably say that Novak has a better chance of winning at least two Slams than any other specific player has of winning a single Slam.

For Roland Garros, already the bets are having Novak first and Rafa second. They are not having even odds. Rafa will need to have wins over Novak leading into RG to have this tipped in his favor.