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Who do you think will be a future #1? Here's how I see it:
GROUP A: A Good Chance
Alexander Zverev: I don't think he'll be a dominant #1, but he'll be consistent enough to grab it once the Big Four fade enough - maybe as soon as 2020ish.
Denis Shapovalov: To me he is the most promising young player on tour, with the possible exception of his fellow countryman, Felix Auger-Aliassime. But we need to see more of Aliassime first.
GROUP B: Maybe - If Things Go Right
Nick Kyrgios: He has the talent, but we haven't seen the consistency. I have a feeling that he's going to have at least one 365-day period that he has been the best player in the game, so will reach #1.
Felix Augur-Aliassime: At 17 it is just too soon to tell, and his heart condition is worrisome. I'm putting him here and in Group D, but of that group he really stands out as promising, in my opinion.
GROUP C: Probably Not, But You Never Know
Grigor Dimitrov: The oldest player on this list. The only way he becomes #1 is if the Big Four fade soon and the younger guys aren't yet at their peak. So it would have to be in the 2018-20 window, and maybe on 2019. During those years we could imagine an era like the late 90s-early 00s, when a number of non-great players become #1 for short spells (Rios, Moya, Kafelnikov, Ferrero, etc), before Roger emerged. We could see the same thing happening before Sascha and Shapo take over sometime in 2020-22. But Grigor would have to up it another notch. Probably not going to happen, but he deserves mentioning.
Dominic Thiem: I see him as even less likely. He's a top 5 clay player, but more of a top 20 hard/grass player. The only way he becomes #1 is if Rafa fades and Dominic sweeps the clay season, and improves on hards/grass. So it could happen, but is unlikely.
Andrey Rublev: I love his forehand and passion, but his game is too rough and not quite multi-dimensional enough to be #1. Still, if he fleshes it out he could be very dangerous.
GROUP D: Too Soon To Tell (But there's a chance!)
Felix Augur Aliassime, Frances Tiafoe, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Corentin Moutet, Nicola Kuhn
Who knows with these guys. I talked about Aliassime already. Tiafoe is due for a breakout, but has been stagnating in the low top 100. Tsitsipas has risen quickly of late and should continue to rise, but I don't quite see him as a future #1. Similarly with Moutet and de Minaur. These three will definitely reach the top 20 and maybe top 10, but #1 is another thing. Way too soon to tell on Kuhn - I only mention him because he's the second highest ranked player born in 2000, after Aliassime, but I haven't seen him play and we'll need to see him jump to the 100-150 range this year for him to have good trajectory.
I was tempted to put Juan Martin del Potro in Group C, but I just don't see it happening. It would be nice, though...
GROUP A: A Good Chance
Alexander Zverev: I don't think he'll be a dominant #1, but he'll be consistent enough to grab it once the Big Four fade enough - maybe as soon as 2020ish.
Denis Shapovalov: To me he is the most promising young player on tour, with the possible exception of his fellow countryman, Felix Auger-Aliassime. But we need to see more of Aliassime first.
GROUP B: Maybe - If Things Go Right
Nick Kyrgios: He has the talent, but we haven't seen the consistency. I have a feeling that he's going to have at least one 365-day period that he has been the best player in the game, so will reach #1.
Felix Augur-Aliassime: At 17 it is just too soon to tell, and his heart condition is worrisome. I'm putting him here and in Group D, but of that group he really stands out as promising, in my opinion.
GROUP C: Probably Not, But You Never Know
Grigor Dimitrov: The oldest player on this list. The only way he becomes #1 is if the Big Four fade soon and the younger guys aren't yet at their peak. So it would have to be in the 2018-20 window, and maybe on 2019. During those years we could imagine an era like the late 90s-early 00s, when a number of non-great players become #1 for short spells (Rios, Moya, Kafelnikov, Ferrero, etc), before Roger emerged. We could see the same thing happening before Sascha and Shapo take over sometime in 2020-22. But Grigor would have to up it another notch. Probably not going to happen, but he deserves mentioning.
Dominic Thiem: I see him as even less likely. He's a top 5 clay player, but more of a top 20 hard/grass player. The only way he becomes #1 is if Rafa fades and Dominic sweeps the clay season, and improves on hards/grass. So it could happen, but is unlikely.
Andrey Rublev: I love his forehand and passion, but his game is too rough and not quite multi-dimensional enough to be #1. Still, if he fleshes it out he could be very dangerous.
GROUP D: Too Soon To Tell (But there's a chance!)
Felix Augur Aliassime, Frances Tiafoe, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Corentin Moutet, Nicola Kuhn
Who knows with these guys. I talked about Aliassime already. Tiafoe is due for a breakout, but has been stagnating in the low top 100. Tsitsipas has risen quickly of late and should continue to rise, but I don't quite see him as a future #1. Similarly with Moutet and de Minaur. These three will definitely reach the top 20 and maybe top 10, but #1 is another thing. Way too soon to tell on Kuhn - I only mention him because he's the second highest ranked player born in 2000, after Aliassime, but I haven't seen him play and we'll need to see him jump to the 100-150 range this year for him to have good trajectory.
I was tempted to put Juan Martin del Potro in Group C, but I just don't see it happening. It would be nice, though...
