French Open Betting Odds

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the odds for outright winning by the top 5 contenders as of May 16th.

Rafael Nadal 5/4
Novak Djokovic 9/4
Stan Wawrinka 8
Roger Federer 18
David Ferrer 22

This approximately translates to 44% chance for Nadal, 31% chance for Novak,
11% chance for Stan, 5% chance for Fed, 4% chance for Ferrer (and 5% chance for
the rest of the field)

p.s. As a quick reminder, this means, for example, if you place $100 bet on Roger and
if he wins FO, you will get your $100 back and get a profit of $1800. If Roger does not
win, you lose the $100 you bet on him.

 

[Front242]

I really don't agree with Stan's odds being that much higher than Federer's to be honest. He was very poor again here this week. Expected Haas to beat him and he did. Shame poor Tommy has ongoing shoulder issues all year so far. So many retirements already. Just hope the career retirement isn't on the cards just yet 'cos when fully fit he's still a major force. If Stan should be placed ahead of Federer (and I don't think he should), then Fed should be 9 or 10 but not 8 v 18. We'll see soon enough who does better at RG.

Birth of kids isn't ideal timing but I still think in best of 5 Federer will play his way into more concentrated form. After all he won the first set 6-1 against Chardy.

 

[Kieran]

Rafa's odds seem very short, considering how vulnerable he's been...

 

[Riotbeard]

Seems about right to me. I honestly think Stan has a solid edge over rog in best of five on clay, but who knows.

 

[Front242]

I'll go on record for saying I believe Roger will do better at RG than Stan.

 

[Tennis Miller]

I'll go on record for saying I believe Roger will do better at RG than Stan.

I'll go on record with the opposite.

Cheers
TM

 

[Front242]

Stan's been about as consistent as Li Na this year. One or two good tournaments and the rest a complete disappointment. I like watching him when he's playing well but I see more inconsistency from him all year with the usual puzzled stares at his box when things don't go his way at many more tournaments.

 

[Denis]

Making Rafa the favorite is strange. The guy is nowhere near his normal level. Djokovic, Dimitrov, Nishikori, and Ferrer should all have better odds. Not sure about Stan. I don't think he can handle the pressure of being a 'favorite'. Hope Im wrong though.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Making Rafa the favorite is strange. The guy is nowhere near his normal level. Djokovic, Dimitrov, Nishikori, and Ferrer should all have better odds. Not sure about Stan. I don't think he can handle the pressure of being a 'favorite'. Hope Im wrong though.

So who would you put as the favorite?

Plus, the odds-makers do this on purpose. If you actually reduce Nadal's odds, you'll have a lot of people throwing money on him, and then what happens if he wins (which is still a big possibility)? It wouldn't exactly be a smart move by the oddsmakers.

Meanwhile, they'll give you low odds on Nishikori or Dimitrov so that you're tempted to throw money on them, and then you're out of luck because they're not winning the whole thing. That's how it works.

There's a difference between tennis talk and how the oddsmakers look at things. They have different variables to take into account, including making money (ESPECIALLY making money).

 

[Denis]

^It hasnt been this open for a long time. I wrote this during the first set of the Murray match when Nadal probably hit rock bottom.

And yeah, the bookies know what they are doing usually, so Im taking them seriously enough.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Denis, I have to ask, when you said that Nishikori, Ferrer, Dimitrov and Wawrinka should have better odds...did you mean compared to the odds they have now, or did you mean better odds than Nadal? Because it's the latter, and I really don't mean to come off like an asshole here, but it would be the most ridiculous statement I've read on these boards this year.

 

[Kieran]

Denis, I have to ask, when you said that Nishikori, Ferrer, Dimitrov and Wawrinka should have better odds...did you mean compared to the odds they have now, or did you mean better odds than Nadal? Because it's the latter, and I really don't mean to come off like an asshole here, but it would be the most ridiculous statement I've read on these boards this year.

That's how I understood it but now you ask the question, I read it again and I'm open to correction.

I wonder on what basis anyone else could be the favourite ahead of Rafa...

 

[TsarMatt]

Rafa's odds seem very short, considering how vulnerable he's been...

Judging from my experience, a lot of betters don't follow the circuit too closely (i.e., Master 1000, 500, 250 tournaments). They see RG is coming up, they see that Nadal is playing, they see that he has 9 French Open titles in his bag, and they put money on him.

I still think he is the clear favourite, to me, anyway. Nadal might be playing some so-so tennis on the dirt (dropping sets here and there), but this is best-of-5 tennis. Such a daunting task, honestly.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the odds for outright winning by the top 5 contenders after the fall of Rafa in Rome.

Rafael Nadal 6/4
Novak Djokovic 7/4
Stan Wawrinka 8
Roger Federer 20
David Ferrer 22

 

[herios]

Seems about right to me. I honestly think Stan has a solid edge over rog in best of five on clay, but who knows.

He may, considering Stan is not a model of consistency either. But Roger's poor odds, you are surprised by (and they never been so poor in the last 2 years, since I am surveying them) are due to his subpar performances in slams post 2012 Wimbledon.
In the last 6 attempts, he has had only 2 SF showings, no finals.
Stan had been besting his results gradually recently and probably that direct win in MC contributed also to this gap between the 2 of them.
And at the end of the day, odds do not mean much, but they just reflect the general opinion of a segment of sport betters, who like to make cash this way.
Heck, there are betting houses where Roger has equal odds to Ferrer...
I know you and Darthfed will be delighted to hear this:laydownlaughing

 

[isabelle]

Making Rafa the favorite is strange. The guy is nowhere near his normal level. Djokovic, Dimitrov, Nishikori, and Ferrer should all have better odds. Not sure about Stan. I don't think he can handle the pressure of being a 'favorite'. Hope Im wrong though.

Espêcially after Nole won Roma, for me the great Serbinator is the fav in RG, not Nadal

 

[Kieran]

Isabelle, you maybe right, but bear in mind a few things. Rafa played poor - and still got close.

And over the years, they've played 6 times over 5 sets on clay - Nole has won a total of 3 sets.

Now, this doesn't mean that it's set in stone, but Rafa has so far been the best player this year - according to the Race to London rankings - even though he's off form.

And he's been the best on clay so far, too, even though he's having his worst year since 2004.

Food for thought...

 

[isabelle]

Isabelle, you maybe right, but bear in mind a few things. Rafa played poor - and still got close.

And over the years, they've played 6 times over 5 sets on clay - Nole has won a total of 3 sets.

Now, this doesn't mean that it's set in stone, but Rafa has so far been the best player this year - according to the Race to London rankings - even though he's off form.

And he's been the best on clay so far, too, even though he's having his worst year since 2004.

Food for thought...

Let's see what happen in Paris but I have the feeling that it's different this year. Nadal isn't as sharp as before and Nole seems to have a great level. This RG is mouthwatering anyway. Hope you'll enjoy the tourney, can't wait to be in front of my TV, screaming and swearing like a nuts woman

 

[herios]

Isabelle, you maybe right, but bear in mind a few things. Rafa played poor - and still got close.

And over the years, they've played 6 times over 5 sets on clay - Nole has won a total of 3 sets.

Now, this doesn't mean that it's set in stone, but Rafa has so far been the best player this year - according to the Race to London rankings - even though he's off form.

And he's been the best on clay so far, too, even though he's having his worst year since 2004.

Food for thought...

I thought about what you just said here, now here is the counterargument:
1. Rafa leads in the WTF race, because he played 8 events this year, Nole only 6.
2. This win 2 days ago of Nole over Rafa was the first win on clay, when Nole managed to overcome a set deficit ON CLAY. You may say Rafa kept it close, but in fact it looks a lot worse, when you consider he lead with 1-0 the proceedings (like seeing the glass half full, instead of empty...)
3. The odds from 2 days ago are slightly changed already, after some of the betters had time to digest what just happened, there are betting houses where Rafa and Nole are with even odds, there is even one where Nole has a slightly better one.
4, If they will face each other in the final, I have doubts Rafa will be so confident, knowing that he is now on a running 0-4 streak against Nole.

 

[Front242]

Yeah, good point on the race to London. 2 whole tournaments difference is a lot so it's a pointless argument.