[Bodo] Grigor Dimitrov is living up to his potential

El Dude

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A nicely optimistic view on Grigor's year. Good to keep the big picture in mind: Grigor took a huge step forward this year, rising as high as #8 and finishing at #11 with a 50-18 record. Only seven players won more matches. His 73.5% winning percentage was good for 6th and he won 3 titles - only a handful of players won more.

A good year and, as Bodo said, it may be a platform for even greater things to come. I suspect that 2015 will see Grigor slide into the top 10 and stay there, barring injury, for years to come.
 

Luxilon Borg

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I bought dimitrov's stock and I believe he is top 5 bound.

But...some things have to change.

-his court positioning. Standing back in Monfilsville will yield no further advancement in his career.

-shot selection must improve

-more efficiency

-incorporate smartly timed S&V

He is almost there physically...another 15%
 

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El Dude said:
A nicely optimistic view on Grigor's year. Good to keep the big picture in mind: Grigor took a huge step forward this year, rising as high as #8 and finishing at #11 with a 50-18 record. Only seven players won more matches. His 73.5% winning percentage was good for 6th and he won 3 titles - only a handful of players won more.

A good year and, as Bodo said, it may be a platform for even greater things to come. I suspect that 2015 will see Grigor slide into the top 10 and stay there, barring injury, for years to come.

This reminded me of your November 2, 2013, blog post about Dimitrov, "The Curious Case of Grigor Dimitrov: Is “Baby Federer” (Finally) Growing Up?"

Especially this part:

"2014 Prediction: I think Grigor will continue his upward trend and is a good bet for an ATP 500 title, and a dark horse candidate for an ATP 1000. Where in 2012 he established himself as a Top 50 player and in 2013 he ended on the cusp of the Top 20, in 2014 he’ll establish himself as a perennial Top 20 player – and on the upper half of that range, even with a chance to challenge for the “soft bottom” of the Top 10, the spots that players like Tipsarevic, Gasquet, and Wawrinka vie for – and which he, Janowicz, Raonic, and Nishikori will fight for in 2014. He won’t yet challenge the near elites for a spot in the Top 8 – that will come in 2015.

In the long-term, I like Grigor’s chances of winning a Slam some day. I don’t see it in 2014, and probably not 2015, but come 2016 – the year Nadal turns 30 and Djokovic and Murray 29, while Dimitrov will be in his prime at 24-25 – anything is possible."

Let's see how you did:

"... a good bet for an ATP 500 title ..." -- He won two.

"... in 2014 he’ll establish himself as a perennial Top 20 player – and on the upper half of that range ..." -- Spent the entire second half of the year ranked between No. 8 and No. 11.

"He won’t yet challenge the near elites for a spot in the Top 8" -- He did reach No. 8, but only for four weeks before falling again, so I'm giving this one to you.

"I like Grigor’s chances of winning a Slam some day. I don’t see it in 2014 ..." -- OK, the easiest of the predictions given the domination of a few guys for many years now, but two out of the four champions in 2014 were first-time winners, and Grigor wasn't one of them.

Well done. :clap
 

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Yeah, the Dude has been a seer with the coming youngsters, giving a heads up on Nick before most us knew much about him. I think there was a huge vacuum in tennis this year - Nole took his foot off the gas, Rafa was absent since Wimbledon, more or less - and a Grigor-shaped hole formed, which he didn't fill. It was a great opportunity - and Cilic took it. Grigor was knocked out of Flushing Meadows by Le Monf, which isn't good.

In straights.

Which is worse.

So I think he's done what was predicted by the Dude, and it was a great prediction, but we also saw something important about Grigor too, because when the nettle was there in front of him, he didn't have the manliness and the game to grasp it. He's going to have to make even greater leaps next season, just to stand still. I'm not completely gone off him yet, but his stock rose in the first seven months, then plummeted, for me...
 

El Dude

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Thanks, tented - yeah, I got that pretty good. I probably should quit while I'm ahead, but if I was to make a prediction for him next year, I'd say that he'll make small gains but not a huge leap. He'll win some tournaments and is a top choice - along with Nishikori - to be a new Masters winner, but I'm not banking on it yet.

Take a look at his rankings over his career:

493, 288, 106, 76, 48, 23, 11,

That's a solid percentile jump each year. If the trend were to continue, he'd finish 2015 somewhere in the 4-9 range. I'll go with that, although where really depends. But I'd think the upper end of that range more likely.
 

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Kieran said:
Yeah, the Dude has been a seer with the coming youngsters, giving a heads up on Nick before most us knew much about him. I think there was a huge vacuum in tennis this year - Nole took his foot off the gas, Rafa was absent since Wimbledon, more or less - and a Grigor-shaped hole formed, which he didn't fill. It was a great opportunity - and Cilic took it. Grigor was knocked out of Flushing Meadows by Le Monf, which isn't good.

In straights.

Which is worse.

So I think he's done what was predicted by the Dude, and it was a great prediction, but we also saw something important about Grigor too, because when the nettle was there in front of him, he didn't have the manliness and the game to grasp it. He's going to have to make even greater leaps next season, just to stand still. I'm not completely gone off him yet, but his stock rose in the first seven months, then plummeted, for me...

Nole closed the season pretty strong. Continuing his indoor winning streak. That being said, I think there will be at least one "outside" slam winner, but Novak and Rafa will still be top dogs.
 

herios

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tented said:
El Dude said:
A nicely optimistic view on Grigor's year. Good to keep the big picture in mind: Grigor took a huge step forward this year, rising as high as #8 and finishing at #11 with a 50-18 record. Only seven players won more matches. His 73.5% winning percentage was good for 6th and he won 3 titles - only a handful of players won more.

A good year and, as Bodo said, it may be a platform for even greater things to come. I suspect that 2015 will see Grigor slide into the top 10 and stay there, barring injury, for years to come.

This reminded me of your November 2, 2013, blog post about Dimitrov, "The Curious Case of Grigor Dimitrov: Is “Baby Federer” (Finally) Growing Up?"

Especially this part:

"2014 Prediction: I think Grigor will continue his upward trend and is a good bet for an ATP 500 title, and a dark horse candidate for an ATP 1000. Where in 2012 he established himself as a Top 50 player and in 2013 he ended on the cusp of the Top 20, in 2014 he’ll establish himself as a perennial Top 20 player – and on the upper half of that range, even with a chance to challenge for the “soft bottom” of the Top 10, the spots that players like Tipsarevic, Gasquet, and Wawrinka vie for – and which he, Janowicz, Raonic, and Nishikori will fight for in 2014. He won’t yet challenge the near elites for a spot in the Top 8 – that will come in 2015.

In the long-term, I like Grigor’s chances of winning a Slam some day. I don’t see it in 2014, and probably not 2015, but come 2016 – the year Nadal turns 30 and Djokovic and Murray 29, while Dimitrov will be in his prime at 24-25 – anything is possible."

Let's see how you did:

"... a good bet for an ATP 500 title ..." -- He won two.

He won only one 500 title, Acapulco
 

tented

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herios said:
He won only one 500 title, Acapulco

And Queen's Club, which is also a 500:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Tournaments/London-Queens-Club.aspx


EDIT: Queen's Club doesn't become a 500 until next year, so technically Dimitrov won it when it was still a 250.
 

El Dude

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herios said:
He won only one 500 title, Acapulco

So you're saying I'm even more brilliant--or at least prescient--than previously implied? :snigger
 

herios

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El Dude said:
herios said:
He won only one 500 title, Acapulco

So you're saying I'm even more brilliant--or at least prescient--than previously implied? :snigger

In general, yes, you are darn good:clap

But, sometimes your subjectivity is affecting your predictions. For example, for next year why Nishikori and Dimitrov are the top choices for first time masters winners?
I have a problem with the fact that you left Raonic out of the equation. While you might say that I am the subjective one this time around, but the facts are on my side.
Raonic is ahead of Grigor, look what happened ion Paris.
I am sure both have yet to reach their full potential and they will develop further inc2015, but I would not give better chances at this time to Grigor to win his first master than to Milos.
Milos confirmed in 2014 something, that he can live up to his expectations going deep (SF or F) in masters or a slam and he was able to take down by now 2 of the Big 4 on bigger stages Murray and Federer both in masters.
I am sure he will conquer new milestones in his career, like defeating other top players on the bigger stages. And if he does that, he could be a winner of a Masters title, sooner rather than later.
 

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The issue I see with Dimitrov is that he does a lot of things very well, but does nothing truly great. His movement is excellent, but is it as great as Novak, Rafa, Andy, or Roger's movement? His forehand is nice, but not in the class of Roger, Rafa, or Novak. Same with the serve--it's good but not on a super elite level.

I still enjoy watching the guy play. I'm just not sure what his real ceiling is.
 

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bobvance said:
The issue I see with Dimitrov is that he does a lot of things very well, but does nothing truly great. His movement is excellent, but is it as great as Novak, Rafa, Andy, or Roger's movement? His forehand is nice, but not in the class of Roger, Rafa, or Novak. Same with the serve--it's good but not on a super elite level.

I still enjoy watching the guy play. I'm just not sure what his real ceiling is.

Yea. I thought that was pretty much in evidence when he played Roger and Novak this year. There groundstrokes were hurting him, and his weren't hurting them. When you are young and in your prime physical shape, you better be overpowering the older guys at some level.

Normally this is supposed to always be the case. Like watching young Sampras vs Lendl. The older guy had much more guile and savvy and he frequently outsmarted Pete, but Lendl's problem was that Sampras was faster, more powerful and in any neutral rally would gain an upperhand due to his heavier weight of stroke.

We just aren't seeing that at all with the younger guys, and its a worry that Dimitrov might not ever really have quite enough firepower to be a consistent slam winner.
 

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While he is obviously extremely talented, I do think his touch and "genius" moments sometimes cloud people's judgment as far as the rest of his game goes.
 

El Dude

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Haelfix said:
bobvance said:
The issue I see with Dimitrov is that he does a lot of things very well, but does nothing truly great. His movement is excellent, but is it as great as Novak, Rafa, Andy, or Roger's movement? His forehand is nice, but not in the class of Roger, Rafa, or Novak. Same with the serve--it's good but not on a super elite level.

I still enjoy watching the guy play. I'm just not sure what his real ceiling is.

Yea. I thought that was pretty much in evidence when he played Roger and Novak this year. There groundstrokes were hurting him, and his weren't hurting them. When you are young and in your prime physical shape, you better be overpowering the older guys at some level.

Normally this is supposed to always be the case. Like watching young Sampras vs Lendl. The older guy had much more guile and savvy and he frequently outsmarted Pete, but Lendl's problem was that Sampras was faster, more powerful and in any neutral rally would gain an upperhand due to his heavier weight of stroke.

We just aren't seeing that at all with the younger guys, and its a worry that Dimitrov might not ever really have quite enough firepower to be a consistent slam winner.

Great stuff. I think what you write is why players like Nick Kyrgios and Borna Coric might have higher upside than Grigor - they seem to have more firepower, more of that capacity to be overpowering (although I'd like to see more of Borna before stating that definitively).

Unless Grigor shows more firepower--and fire--in 2015, I'm thinking he's going to be more of a second tier guy in the #5-10 range. No shame in that, but I'd still like to see a bit more from him.
 

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I've heard both Federer and Serena Williams say they hate losing, more than they love winning. Grigor could use more of that attitude.
 

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tented said:
I've heard both Federer and Serena Williams say they hate losing, more than they love winning. Grigor could use more of that attitude.

Actually I've heard Federer say that he loves winning more than he hates losing. He was speculating that perhaps his motivations are different to others. And he was trying to explain why he's able to recover from tough losses relatively quickly. All part of his 'love of the game' narrative
 

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I think Grigor had a remarkably very good first half of the year (especially at the Australian & Wimbledon). The tools are there it's the head & fighting spirit that needs to go up a notch & at times shot selection. Finally got to see him play at the US Open & he is very impressive. I'd watch him on a tennis court any day of the week over Milos or Kei and I will throw in Murray as well.
 

tented

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federberg said:
tented said:
I've heard both Federer and Serena Williams say they hate losing, more than they love winning. Grigor could use more of that attitude.

Actually I've heard Federer say that he loves winning more than he hates losing. He was speculating that perhaps his motivations are different to others. And he was trying to explain why he's able to recover from tough losses relatively quickly. All part of his 'love of the game' narrative

I suspect he said one quote after winning, and the other after losing. (I'm serious, too, because I vividly remember him making that comment.)
 

Federberg

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tented said:
federberg said:
tented said:
I've heard both Federer and Serena Williams say they hate losing, more than they love winning. Grigor could use more of that attitude.

Actually I've heard Federer say that he loves winning more than he hates losing. He was speculating that perhaps his motivations are different to others. And he was trying to explain why he's able to recover from tough losses relatively quickly. All part of his 'love of the game' narrative

I suspect he said one quote after winning, and the other after losing. (I'm serious, too, because I vividly remember him making that comment.)

Perhaps... but I do recall him being asked the question about his motivations, and he specifically references loving winning as opposed to hating losing to explain his mentality. I'm not going to have an argument about it. Just wanted you to know :blush:
 

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federberg said:
tented said:
federberg said:
Actually I've heard Federer say that he loves winning more than he hates losing. He was speculating that perhaps his motivations are different to others. And he was trying to explain why he's able to recover from tough losses relatively quickly. All part of his 'love of the game' narrative

I suspect he said one quote after winning, and the other after losing. (I'm serious, too, because I vividly remember him making that comment.)

Perhaps... but I do recall him being asked the question about his motivations, and he specifically references loving winning as opposed to hating losing to explain his mentality. I'm not going to have an argument about it. Just wanted you to know :blush:

It's also something that could change with age. 33 year old Federer probably has more perspective than when he was on top of the world.