Great Hands
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Kieran said:Now he barely wins games against a Federer who's getting older, and Novak dismisses him like he's a rookie.
This is part of what I'm trying to address. You talk about Fed getting older, refusing to acknowledge facts like he's had the best serving stats this year that he's ever had. And he's playing in a newly aggressive style which is nightmare for Andy. And as I say, Fed played less well in the 2012 WD final than he did in the WD SF this year, and still beat the Andy who had Lendl in his corner. So the idea that 2012 Murray could step onto court against the beast that was Federer in that WD SF this year and beat him is completely illogical.
Novak does not always 'dismiss him like he's a rookie'. He didn't in the Montreal Masters final this year. And that Montreal final is a perfect example to illustrate what I'm talking about.
Novak underperformed in that match. He was a little injured, apparently, he said. And no one can deny that Novak didn't play anywhere near his best in that match.
Andy, on the other hand, played great. He did everything you say he did under Lendl. He was aggressive, and strong in the clutch. See this analysis of the match here: http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/brain-game-montreal-final-2015-murray
And he still only just squeaked to the win, by the skin of his teeth...
So what does this tell us? That even when Andy plays really well, really aggressively, and is mentally strong - i.e. all the things you say he did better under Lendl - he still needs Novak to underperform for him to win. This is what that otherwise excellent article referenced above does not acknowledge.
So if Novak plays well, he will beat Andy. So we shouldn't be surprised when Novak beats Andy.
Novak beat Andy at this year's AO.
But Novak beat Andy at both AOs when he was with Lendl, too.
Novak beat Andy in the Miami final this year.
But Novak beat Andy in the Miami final under Lendl, too!
etc
Murray's wins over Novak under Lendl: 2 on grass - Olympics and WD, 2 on faster hards - Dubai and USO - the former very fast hards, the latter in extremely windy conditions.
2015 Murray did not play Novak on grass, fast hards, or in extreme wind. So there's no way of knowing what would have happened there. 2015 Murray only played Novak on clay and, all the others on medium-slower hards, which is Novak's forte, and a surface which is really bad for Murray in the Djokovic-Murray matchup. It is also, unfortunately for those of us who would like some more faster surfaces, the most common surface on the ATP tour.
So where's the evidence that the Andy under Lendl would have done better against 2015 Novak or 2015 Fed than 2015 Andy?
There is none.