2013 French Open QF: Federer vs. Tsonga

[tented]

After today, it's a little trickier to pick this one. But here is all the relevant H2H information:

Fed leads the H2H 9-3

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=F324&oId=T786

Roger has won five of the last six meetings, including the most recent a QF at this year's AO. Roger has won the only clay meeting in the 2nd round of the 2011 Rome Masters.

vs.

 

[Front242]

Agreed and very much depends on which Tsonga and indeed which Fed show up. If Tsonga wins I see him coming out flat as a pancake playing all passive and then losing set 1 and then storming ahead from there and never letting go. Whatever about Fed being cheered for more than Simon, Tsonga is a serious crowd pleaser and the crowd will likely fire Tsonga up like they did against Djokovic last year. The rest is in Tsonga's hands. Still, Fed had it easy up to now and maybe today will be just what he needed. It wasn't physically very demanding for a 5 setter but at least made him more match tough. I didn't vote 'cos I just don't know who'll win.

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

before today, i was a worried about the match-up. Tsonga is playing really well, and for what it's worth, could've beaten Fed at AO. so after this, i'm quite confident about picking Tsonga. in 5, just because he's still a bit of a headcase and, like Muzzah at the AO, won't know how to finish it quicker.

on a more balanced note, it's tough to call, because Simon really is nothing like Tsonga. and for the Tsonga matchup, you don't know who exactly shows up on either side of the net; either way, Fed can count himself lucky that the match wasn't all that long for a five setter (i couldn't watch - did he exert a lot of energy, or was it just energy-conserving shanks mostly?).

 

[Front242]

before today, i was a worried about the match-up. Tsonga is playing really well, and for what it's worth, could've beaten Fed at AO. so after this, i'm quite confident about picking Tsonga. in 5, just because he's still a bit of a headcase and, like Muzzah at the AO, won't know how to finish it quicker.

on a more balanced note, it's tough to call, because Simon really is nothing like Tsonga. and for the Tsonga matchup, you don't know who exactly shows up on either side of the net; either way, Fed can count himself lucky that the match wasn't all that long for a five setter (i couldn't watch - did he exert a lot of energy, or was it just energy-conserving shanks mostly?).

Energy conserving shanks mostly, along with inspired play from Simon.

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

oh well. another good-ish takeaway from the match is that Fed trailed and turned it around. i think it's *almost* the first time he's done that this year. pretty sure he didn't at the AO (never trailed v Tsonga). *checked while typing - Fed won from behind once in 2013 - against Tunisia's Malek Jaziri. so i guess he hasn't turned a match around against a player ranked above #150 this year.

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*reading up on recaps of the match v Simon - Fed took a fall to the ground right before the game that he was first broken and the worst patch? and left the court after the third? coincidence, or were there any signs of him being affected?

 

[Front242]

Well, a point to note in how short it was for a 5 set match:

Nadal's 3 set win over Fognini lasted 2 hours and 45 minutes. Fed's 5 set win today took 2 hours 59 mins. So it won't have drained Fed in the slightest.

 

[justapasserby]

as much as i don't like this result, i pick tsonga to win in 4... today says everything about where both of them are in their games...

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

Well, a point to note in how short it was for a 5 set match:

Nadal's 3 set win over Fognini lasted 2 hours and 45 minutes. Fed's 5 set win today took 2 hours 59 mins. So it won't have drained Fed in the slightest.

wow, that's quite something, albeit not 100% surprising i reckon Simon plays a good pace himself as well (between points).

fun fact regarding the matchup with JW: they've played just once on clay before, in Rome 2011 - in the 2nd Round! Roger won in straights. Tsonga was unseeded (after his injury in the second half of '10, and a bad start to the season), hence the early meet.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Well, a point to note in how short it was for a 5 set match:

Nadal's 3 set win over Fognini lasted 2 hours and 45 minutes. Fed's 5 set win today took 2 hours 59 mins. So it won't have drained Fed in the slightest.

Yes and no. A five setter is always going to be more draining than a 3 setter (at least, almost always), just because of the extra effort (mental and physical) you're putting in every point since there's a real chance of losing. Likewise, unlike Rafa, Federer is no longer 27.

But yeah, I think physically, he'll be fine against Tsonga.

 

[crystalfire]

wow really glad fed got through his 36th QF. i consider this match basically a semi. whoever wins this imo is going to the final. if fed wins i dont see ferrer or robredo troubling him at all. same with tsonga. i would say tsonga is playing better right now and if i really had to put money on it i would go with him. however im also confident in fed and hope he can win this. it all basically depends on how well fed serves and the playing conditions. i went fed in 5. just cos i cant go against my guy unless its rafa on the other side.

 

[DarthFed]

Recent history has shown that once Federer struggles in a GS tournament he doesn't turn his form around. Roger was cruising up until the QF at AO, played rather poorly, luckily escaped and then was badly outplayed by Murray. Similar situation at Olympics last year and RG too. Wimbledon was the exception with bad form early and then suddenly turned it around starting in the QF.

3 hours for a 5 setter shouldn't take much out of him physically but it's a cumulative effect as well. If the Tsonga match goes 5 then this Simon match might be a factor. Tsonga looked good but Roger is still a nightmare matchup when he is playing like he can. The question after today is whether we will see more of the Roger from sets 2 and 3 today or the one from sets 1 and 4.

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wow really glad fed got through his 36th QF. i consider this match basically a semi. whoever wins this imo is going to the final. if fed wins i dont see ferrer or robredo troubling him at all. same with tsonga. i would say tsonga is playing better right now and if i really had to put money on it i would go with him. however im also confident in fed and hope he can win this. it all basically depends on how well fed serves and the playing conditions. i went fed in 5. just cos i cant go against my guy unless its rafa on the other side.

I just am not seeing Tsonga beating Ferrer let alone be a sure win as some seem to think. Also, if Fed goes 5 to beat Tsonga then Ferrer has a real chance vs. Roger in the semi if he can make it physical. Fed playing anywhere near average will take Ferrer out no question but at slams there is the cumulative effect of long matches and that's why a match like today is never a good thing for Roger at slams. Winning in straights is a big difference compared to 5 for an old player.

 

[Denis]

Tsonga in five. More concerned about the semis against Ferrer. Both are very focussed this tournament, I hope Tsonga can overpower Ferrer.

 

[DarthFed]

The situation reminds me a bit of their 2011 USO quarterfinal. Roger came in on the heels of a terrible loss to Tsonga at Wimbledon and had been having a very poor year in general. I called it a status match with Roger trying to show he was still elite and Tsonga trying to take the next step in becoming an elite player. I knew Roger would win easily as he is too good on fast hards for Tsonga and that was two years ago.

Fast forward to now and it is a similar feeling; Roger has mostly been invisible since winning Wimbledon last year and he is going on 32. Slams are pretty much the only thing he cares about at this point. Again, Roger wants to show he is still elite and Tsonga is still trying to take the next step in becoming a true contender at slams. Unlike the 2011 USO this is a much tougher match to call. Roger struggles more and more with big hitters and I have a sneaking suspicion clay will make matters worse as he has trouble getting them out of position and even though it plays slow the big serve of Tsonga will still earn him a ton of free points.

Fed also knows this is a golden opportunity to get to the final with a serious possibility that it won't be Nadal on the other side of the net. Roger's dream is Nole and Rafa destroying each other with Nole winning and coming in tired. This is actually a realistic possibility. Regardless, this is a final Federer "should" reach and if he doesn't there will be more and more "inquiries" in the media about his downfall. Fed in 4 or Tsonga in 5.

 

[El Dude]

No idea. I will say that if Tsonga beats Federer I'm hoping to see him win the tournament. I love Federer, but I'd almost like to see Tsonga win Roland-Garros more. Either way I'm hoping Novak can take out Rafa so that we have an interesting final. Rafa would demolish Roger, Jo-Wilfried - or Ferrer or Robredo, for that matter. But I think a Federer-Djokovic or Tsonga-Djokovic final could be interesting.

 

[Front242]

No idea. I will say that if Tsonga beats Federer I'm hoping to see him win the tournament. I love Federer, but I'd almost like to see Tsonga win Roland-Garros more. Either way I'm hoping Novak can take out Rafa so that we have an interesting final. Rafa would demolish Roger, Jo-Wilfried - or Ferrer or Robredo, for that matter. But I think a Federer-Djokovic or Tsonga-Djokovic final could be interesting.

Likewise. I'd love to see Tsonga win a slam anywhere but at home would be a dream for him and agree that Nadal being out of the equation makes for the most exciting final. That said for many the Nadal v Djokovic impending semi is the most exciting match on paper if they both get there and both play well. The latter is the important part as I felt much of last year's final was a load of toss. Djokovic doublefaulting away set 1 and basically playing crap for 2 sets, in fact both of them played poorly first two sets imo. So hopefully it'll be a lot more entertaining than that was.

 

[coban]

My heart says Federer, but my head says Tsonga.

 

[the AntiPusher]

JoWillieTs will beat Fed this time. Tsonga is playing with a lot of confidence and playing very aggressively.. Fed is Fed, you can never count him out but I like JowillieTs in this encounter.. He had the same opportunity last year against Djoker but could close out the match. It should be a good match if Tsonga is on his game.

 

[Srini]

Voted for Fed in 4, I think he will find a way to win. He needs to take care of his second serve though.

 

[Moxie]

My heart says Federer, but my head says Tsonga.

I'm the opposite: my heart says Tsonga, but my head says Fed.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Even if Roger wins, he cannot afford to overexert himself. This is the business end of the tournament and this is where he has lost his edge recently. Even a close four setter against Tsonga after the five setter against Simon could be costly for the semi, and the final.
i think JWT has a good shot at this. I will give the edge to Roger and say he wins in 4, but I will not be surprised at all if JWT wins this. He has been playing well.