18-year old Big Title Winners - Alcaraz is in Good Company

[El Dude]

Hey all. I've been somewhat turned off by tennis since "Djokogate" at the AO, but with Alcaraz's victory it is hard not to be a bit excited by the emergence of a young superstar.

I thought I'd share this:

Players Who Won First Big Title At Age 18 or Younger
17y, 3m - Michael Chang - 1989 Roland Garros
17y, 7m - Boris Becker - 1985 Wimbledon
17y, 8m - Boris Becker - 1985 Cincinnati Masters
17y, 9m - Mats Wilander - 1982 Roland Garros
17y, 11m - Bjorn Borg - 1974 Rome Masters
17y, 11m - Bjorn Borg - 1974 Roland Garros
18y, 2m - Bjorn Borg - 1974 Boston Masters
18y, 5m - Michael Chang - 1990 Canada Masters
18y, 7m - Mats Wilander - 1983 Monte Carlo Masters
18y, 7m - Boris Becker - 1986 Wimbledon
18y, 8m - Boris Becker - 1986 Canada Masters
18y, 10m - Rafael Nadal - 2005 Monte Carlo Masters
18y, 10m - Carlos Alcaraz - 2022 Miami Masters
18y, 10m - Rafael Nadal - 2005 Rome Masters
18y, 11m - Rafael Nadal - 2005 Roland Garros
18y, 11m - Bjorn Borg - 1975 Roland Garros
18y, 11m - Mats Wilander - 1983 CIncinnati Masters

So it has been done 17 times by 6 players: Chang x2, Becker x4, Borg x4, Nadal x3, Wilander x3, Alcaraz x1.

Alcaraz turns 19 on May 5, so will have one more chance at a Masters to add to his tally (Monte-Carlo), but turns 19 at the Madrid Open and will be 19 when Roland Garros rolls around.

Still, that's very impressive company: One GOAT contender, three all-time greats, and Chang, who was very good but not an ATG.

The point being, 18-year olds who win big titles tend to become all-time greats. All of a sudden Alcaraz has jumped to the top of the queue of the "next dominant player," ahead of Sinner, Auger-Aliassime, and the rest.

 

[Jelenafan]

Hey all. I've been somewhat turned off by tennis since "Djokogate" at the AO, but with Alcaraz's victory it is hard not to be a bit excited by the emergence of a young superstar.

I thought I'd share this:

Players Who Won First Big Title At Age 18 or Younger
17y, 3m - Michael Chang - 1989 Roland Garros
17y, 7m - Boris Becker - 1985 Wimbledon
17y, 8m - Boris Becker - 1985 Cincinnati Masters
17y, 9m - Mats Wilander - 1982 Roland Garros
17y, 11m - Bjorn Borg - 1974 Rome Masters
17y, 11m - Bjorn Borg - 1974 Roland Garros
18y, 2m - Bjorn Borg - 1974 Boston Masters
18y, 5m - Michael Chang - 1990 Canada Masters
18y, 7m - Mats Wilander - 1983 Monte Carlo Masters
18y, 7m - Boris Becker - 1986 Wimbledon
18y, 8m - Boris Becker - 1986 Canada Masters
18y, 10m - Rafael Nadal - 2005 Monte Carlo Masters
18y, 10m - Carlos Alcaraz - 2022 Miami Masters
18y, 10m - Rafael Nadal - 2005 Rome Masters
18y, 11m - Rafael Nadal - 2005 Roland Garros
18y, 11m - Bjorn Borg - 1975 Roland Garros
18y, 11m - Mats Wilander - 1983 CIncinnati Masters

So it has been done 17 times by 6 players: Chang x2, Becker x4, Borg x4, Nadal x3, Wilander x3, Alcaraz x1.

Alcaraz turns 19 on May 5, so will have one more chance at a Masters to add to his tally (Monte-Carlo), but turns 19 at the Madrid Open and will be 19 when Roland Garros rolls around.

Still, that's very impressive company: One GOAT contender, three all-time greats, and Chang, who was very good but not an ATG.

The point being, 18-year olds who win big titles tend to become all-time greats. All of a sudden Alcaraz has jumped to the top of the queue of the "next dominant player," ahead of Sinner, Auger-Aliassime, and the rest.

Great stats, El Dude

Here's another interesting one, how many Majors did these prodigies win past the age of 24?

Chang (0) only 1 at age 17
Wilander (0) last won age 23
Borg (1) Won the French Open at age 25 years and 1 day
Becker (1) 28 years old when he won the AO after a 5 year drought
Rafa (12) Again, he's truly a FREAK

 

[El Dude]

Great stats, El Dude

Here's another interesting one, how many Majors did these prodigies win past the age of 24?

Chang (0) only 1 at age 17
Wilander (0) last won age 23
Borg (1) Won the French Open at age 25 years and 1 day
Becker (1) 28 years old when he won the AO after a 5 year drought
Rafa (12) Again, he's truly a FREAK

Truly, but...here we have a chance to talk about someone other than the Holy Trinity and we come back to Nadal?

Let's turn it back to Alcaraz: notice how most of those 17-18 year old titles were between 1974-89, then nothing for 16 years before Nadal's flurry. Meaning, from 1990 on, it was only Nadal. And now Alcaraz. That points to how unusual it is for a player to be this good, this young. Nadal is in a different category than all but two other players in Open Era history, and now we have a guy doing something that only Nadal has done for the last three decades.

Anyhow, if I were to guess who would have the best careers from this point out among Next Gen and the "Millenial Babies," it would be Alcaraz first, then Sinner, Medvedev, and Auger-Aliassime in some order.

After that, I can't decide, with Zverev and Tsitsipas still in the mix, Rublev and Ruud outsiders but in the discussion, plenty of others. I'm looking to see Holger Rune start making some noise, too.

But where Alcaraz stands out: He's the only young guy who had the steep rise of the true all-time greats, without getting stalled out in one way or another. All the other young guys of the last fifteen years or so--going back to Novak--got stuck somewhere. Alcaraz hasn't yet.

 

[Jelenafan]

Truly, but...here we have a chance to talk about someone other than the Holy Trinity and we come back to Nadal?

Let's turn it back to Alcaraz: notice how most of those 17-18 year old titles were between 1974-89, then nothing for 16 years before Nadal's flurry. Meaning, from 1990 on, it was only Nadal. And now Alcaraz. That points to how unusual it is for a player to be this good, this young. Nadal is in a different category than all but two other players in Open Era history, and now we have a guy doing something that only Nadal has done for the last three decades.

Anyhow, if I were to guess who would have the best careers from this point out among Next Gen and the "Millenial Babies," it would be Alcaraz first, then Sinner, Medvedev, and Auger-Aliassime in some order.

After that, I can't decide, with Zverev and Tsitsipas still in the mix, Rublev and Ruud outsiders but in the discussion, plenty of others. I'm looking to see Holger Rune start making some noise, too.

But where Alcaraz stands out: He's the only young guy who had the steep rise of the true all-time greats, without getting stalled out in one way or another. All the other young guys of the last fifteen years or so--going back to Novak--got stuck somewhere. Alcaraz hasn't yet.

The other thing I would add on Alcaraz, how many top 25 ranked opponent wins he already has so early in his career. It's not as if he's had an easy draw and got a nice break to win a tourney this year.

I've seen Rune and I like what I've seen so far and it's going to be interesting to watch him potentially improve and of course I still have hope at least on clay with Mussetti.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

El Dude good to see you back and thanks for the post on Alcaraz.

Alcaraz to me has no glaring holes in his all court game.If any, I think he can improve his first serve,which of course he has time to improve.He has put on muscle since last year and given his age and a male,he could still have a growth in his height.
My question to you is at this stage which surface do you think suits him the best,he has won on clay and now the biggest title so far in his career a Masters 1000 title.,or should we just wait and see how he evolves?

 

[Moxie]

Good to see you back, Dude! I was wondering how long you would resist, with a new star on the horizon. I know the Nadal comparisons get frustrating, (including, I think for Alcaraz,) but he does seem to be our first great teenager since. He's got 4 chances at a Major to be the first man to win won as a teenager since 2005. Some think he will. He's got great variety, a cool head, and seemingly a terrific support team. I like his chances for staying-power.

 

[El Dude]

El Dude good to see you back and thanks for the post on Alcaraz.

Alcaraz to me has no glaring holes in his all court game.If any, I think he can improve his first serve,which of course he has time to improve.He has put on muscle since last year and given his age and a male,he could still have a growth in his height.
My question to you is at this stage which surface do you think suits him the best,he has won on clay and now the biggest title so far in his career a Masters 1000 title.,or should we just wait and see how he evolves?

I haven't watched him enough, but I think he'll be elite on clay and hards...not sure about grass, yet. My impulse is to say that he'll be similarly great on clay and hards, enough so that he won't be seen as a specialist.

Plus, he isn't exactly bad looking - which matters, as far as celebrity factor.

 

[El Dude]

Good to see you back, Dude! I was wondering how long you would resist, with a new star on the horizon. I know the Nadal comparisons get frustrating, (including, I think for Alcaraz,) but he does seem to be our first great teenager since. He's got 4 chances at a Major to be the first man to win won as a teenager since 2005. Some think he will. He's got great variety, a cool head, and seemingly a terrific support team. I like his chances for staying-power.

Hey, Moxie! Yeah, I get the comparison - both Spanish, of course, plus, didn't he play at Rafa's tennis school?

Anyhow, I'm rooting for him - as I am the other young guys. I've also liked FA's progress this year, with his first title and three QFs or better in a row at Slams. Strangely enough, Sinner seems to be the guy who is plateauing - after reaching the top 10 last November he's holding steady but hasn't taken that next step forward yet. But I'm sure he will.

 

[Moxie]

Hey, Moxie! Yeah, I get the comparison - both Spanish, of course, plus, didn't he play at Rafa's tennis school?

Anyhow, I'm rooting for him - as I am the other young guys. I've also liked FA's progress this year, with his first title and three QFs or better in a row at Slams. Strangely enough, Sinner seems to be the guy who is plateauing - after reaching the top 10 last November he's holding steady but hasn't taken that next step forward yet. But I'm sure he will.

The Spanish thing is the most superficial part, but sure, everyone jumps to it. No, he hasn't been at Rafa's Academy, I don't think. JC Ferrero has an academy, and I think that's where he's been. The real comparisons are "youngest to..." and mindset, I'd say.

Anyway, hoping the best for him. As you say to Margaret above, both HC and clay should be good for him, but I can see where he could transfer to grass, if he improves the serve, especially. He's got soft hands at the net and is not afraid of his north/south game.

Yes, FAA making positive progress. Not worried about Sinner yet. He has the most to improve on in all-around game, of the 3, IMO, but he has a good head and I think he'll keep improving.

 

[Carol]

Alcaraz is lucky because until now he has not beaten a player with many fanatics like Nadal did at his age and that why he got so many antis

 

[rafanoy1992]

Hey, Moxie! Yeah, I get the comparison - both Spanish, of course, plus, didn't he play at Rafa's tennis school?

Anyhow, I'm rooting for him - as I am the other young guys. I've also liked FA's progress this year, with his first title and three QFs or better in a row at Slams. Strangely enough, Sinner seems to be the guy who is plateauing - after reaching the top 10 last November he's holding steady but hasn't taken that next step forward yet. But I'm sure he will.

To be fair to Sinner, he reached his 2nd ever Slam QF this year at AO after only reaching 4R last year at the Slams.

Also unfortunately for him, he got an illness (potentially COVID) right after AO, so he did not play until IW. Then, at IW, he withdrew due illness again. In Miami, he reached the QF, but suffered blisters on his foot and was forced to retire during the match.

So, Sinner's progress has been steady just bit unlucky with the illness and blisters. Hopefully, he is able to do well during the Clay season.

 

[rafanoy1992]

The Spanish thing is the most superficial part, but sure, everyone jumps to it. No, he hasn't been at Rafa's Academy, I don't think. JC Ferrero has an academy, and I think that's where he's been. The real comparisons are "youngest to..." and mindset, I'd say.

Anyway, hoping the best for him. As you say to Margaret above, both HC and clay should be good for him, but I can see where he could transfer to grass, if he improves the serve, especially. He's got soft hands at the net and is not afraid of his north/south game.

Yes, FAA making positive progress. Not worried about Sinner yet. He has the most to improve on in all-around game, of the 3, IMO, but he has a good head and I think he'll keep improving.

Sinner also hired a new coach, so it will take some time to get in sync. I am with you, I believe that Sinner will figured it out soon...

 

[Moxie]

Sinner also hired a new coach, so it will take some time to get in sync. I am with you, I believe that Sinner will figured it out soon...

Actually, this hasn't been discussed, because Sinner is not big 3, nor is Piatti a top coach, but I do wonder about this. Hopefully, a smart move.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Sinner had been with Piatti for a long time,Sinner probably needed a new voice,they do need time to sync.Lets see what results Sinner has in the up coming clay season.

 

[Jelenafan]

One stat that is often overlooked is Bjorn Borg’s Davis Cup debut in 1972 at the ripe old age of FIFTEEN in Swedens tie with New Zealand. In a Five set rubber he bested the Kiwi Onny Parun, was was a good player , was a quarter finalist at Wimbledon that same year and was the 1973 AO finalist.

So while others won ATP matches at the tender age of 15, I’m guessing that Borg is the youngest player to beat a top 25 player in the Open era, which Parun was.

 

[Kieran]

Anyhow, if I were to guess who would have the best careers from this point out among Next Gen and the "Millenial Babies," it would be Alcaraz first, then Sinner, Medvedev, and Auger-Aliassime in some order.

After that, I can't decide, with Zverev and Tsitsipas still in the mix, Rublev and Ruud outsiders but in the discussion, plenty of others. I'm looking to see Holger Rune start making some noise, too.

Good to see you, Dude. But let’s just go back to what you said about Rafa there

It’s going to be interesting to see how the younger plays react to Alcaraz sudden, decisive move towards the top. Sinner, Felix, etc. Guys who know they’re not expected to win big yet, while they still develop. But now Alcaraz has raised the stakes. I look at the older generation (already!) of Tsitsipas etc, and already see them feeling threatened, they’re almost running out of track.

Alcaraz has the sense and attitude of a competitor. He’s going to stir up the game, hopefully, and just at a time when we thought teenagers were a thing of the past…

 

[rafanoy1992]

Brother Kieran made a great point about now that Alcaraz has won a BIG title in his career, I am wondering how it will affect the other young players (FAA, Sinner, Musetti and etc..) expectations and preparations.

Here's my opinion at least with one of my favorite players: Jannik Sinner. I think he will still do his learning progress in his own way and not rush the journey even if he watched Alcaraz win Miami Open. Yes, he will still want to be a great player and become number 1 player in the world, but he will take his own time. I sensed it when I watched him practice in person right after he played an official match at IW. His whole demeanor did not changed in both in match and in practice. In a way, he will be like a Medvedev that he will slowly but surely will win bigger titles, step by step. Let's just hope his body will cooperate with his determination to become a great tennis player.

As for FAA, while he has made strides in the last couple of months (3 straight Slam QFs and 1st career ATP Title), his consecutive losses at both IW and Miami have made me "cautious" about his future at least for now.

 

[El Dude]

Good to see you, Dude. But let’s just go back to what you said about Rafa there

It’s going to be interesting to see how the younger plays react to Alcaraz sudden, decisive move towards the top. Sinner, Felix, etc. Guys who know they’re not expected to win big yet, while they still develop. But now Alcaraz has raised the stakes. I look at the older generation (already!) of Tsitsipas etc, and already see them feeling threatened, they’re almost running out of track.

Alcaraz has the sense and attitude of a competitor. He’s going to stir up the game, hopefully, and just at a time when we thought teenagers were a thing of the past…

Hey Kieran. I was thinking something similar, or rather that it might inspire the other young guys, in particular Sinner and FAA.

Tsitsipas seems a lost cause, at least as far as being a multi-Slam winner, and I wouldn't be surprised if he never wins a single Slam - although clearly it is too soon to write him totally off. But he's kind of slipped behind the Medvedev-Zverev duo to be more with Rublev, Berritini, Ruud, Hurkacz...darkhorses, but not favorites.

 

[El Dude]

It will be interesting to see how quickly Alcaraz wins his first Slam - if he has a quick turnaround like Rafa (I think within a month or two), or more of a slower ascendancy like Roger, with Novak in-between. Let's look:

PLAYER: first title, first big title, first Slam

NADAL: Sopot 9/04 (18) > Monte Carlo 4/05 (18) > Roland Garros 6/05 (19)
FEDERER: Milan 1/01 (19) > Hamburg 5/02 (20) > Wimbledon 6/03 (21)
DJOKOVIC: Amersfoot 7/06 (19) > Miami 3/07 (19) > Australian Open 1/08 (20)

MEDVEDEV: Sydney 1/18 (21) > Cincinnati 8/19 (23) > US Open 8/21 (25)
ZVEREV: St Petersberg 9/16 (19) > Rome 5/17 (20) > ???
TSITSIPAS: Stockholm 10/18 (20) > WTF 11/19 (21) > ???
ALCARAZ: Umag 7/21 (18) > Miami 4/22 (18) > ???
FAA: Rotterdam 2/22 (21) > ??? > ???
SINNER: Sofia 11/20 (19) > ??? > ???

It took Rafa less than two months after his first big title, Roger about a year, and Novak a bit less than a year. It took Daniil about two years.

 

[Jelenafan]

Hey Kieran. I was thinking something similar, or rather that it might inspire the other young guys, in particular Sinner and FAA.

Tsitsipas seems a lost cause, at least as far as being a multi-Slam winner, and I wouldn't be surprised if he never wins a single Slam - although clearly it is too soon to write him totally off. But he's kind of slipped behind the Medvedev-Zverev duo to be more with Rublev, Berritini, Ruud, Hurkacz...darkhorses, but not favorites.

Just curious, what makes you think Zverev still has it in him? He's been a crown prince far longer than Tsitsipas, who while I concede is a streaky player with technical deficiencies (poor return game, vulnerable BH)I just feel has more inner belief.

Many years ago, Ted Tinling, the departed Tennis designer,/guru once said of Martina N: "She goes from arrogance to panic with nothing in between," and dang if I don't think that applies to Zverev. For someone with such a solid base game, (good groundies, intimidating serve when on, good movement, etc,) he can look practically "deer in the headlights" in a match when it's not going his way.

Plus the serving yips that he has. Novak, Murray and Rafa all had relative serving issues throughout the early part of their careers, but non of them by age 25 (Zverev's birthday is 2 weeks away) were serving DF's like candy the way Zverev still does when he gets off track. I'm sorry but that's a big mental issue for someone with his game.