US Politics Thread

[brokenshoelace]

You make interesting points, but I don't think we can only read Trump's choices via the lens of Russia. I don't think he really has one coherent plan. We talk about him making choices to distract Americans from his poor polling numbers, and the economy, and ICE, etc. But we also have to remember that he, himself, is easily distractible. He ping pongs around the globe, alighting to fixate on something briefly, then caroms off to something else. And we know he's surrounded himself with sycophants, not statesmen, so it really is all about Trump, and which shiny objected he's distracted by at any given moment.

As to Venezuela, I think it's less about Putin than it is about Cuba, IMO. He's starving them into submission. And here, I do think Rubio has his ear.

As to Iran, Trump had the ability to illuminate for Congress and the American people what he was hoping to do in Iran, and passed on the opportunity. As many have said, no one is sad that Khamenei is dead. But there is no opposition organization to fill the void. Reza Pahlavi is gaming for the slot. I'm curious to know what @brokenshoelace thinks about all of this.

My view is the only view that anyone should have after a century of empirical evidence: Stop bombing people to death.

 

[Federberg]

this is a great listen, not least Applebaum's point about Europeans adjusting to the realities of the transatlantic relationship post the Greenland fiasco. I already mentioned concerns about dollar hegemony in payment systems. This is not about Trump anymore, the world has taken note of America. If you could vote this man in again.. then America cannot be trusted. You could vote Reagan back in, or Clinton or HW Bush.. it wouldn't matter. Because you can always elect another one... and frankly Vance is worse!

 

[britbox]

My view is the only view that anyone should have after a century of empirical evidence: Stop bombing people to death.

I wish you good fortune in the times ahead. Something tells me this is going to escalate way beyond the mid-east.

 

[Federberg]

I wish you good fortune in the times ahead. Something tells me this is going to escalate way beyond the mid-east.

I honestly can't see how this doesn't get out of Trump's control. With more US soldiers dying, and the polls already showing American voters hate this war, I can't see how this gets better. The Senate might actually end up being in play now. It's going to be very interesting to see how incumbent GOP legislators behave once primary season is over. They might actually turn on Trump... hard

 

[Federberg]

PS,, my nightmare scenario is that in this iteration of "history doesn't repeat itself".. what if the Ayatollah is the Archduke Ferdinand of this cycle?

 

[britbox]

I honestly can't see how this doesn't get out of Trump's control. With more US soldiers dying, and the polls already showing American voters hate this war, I can't see how this gets better. The Senate might actually end up being in play now. It's going to be very interesting to see how incumbent GOP legislators behave once primary season is over. They might actually turn on Trump... hard

You know my take on politics mate... it's wrestling in suits. Trump won't have sat down and planned any of this himself. He's a front man. Taking down Iran has been on the Imperial agenda for years.

 

[Federberg]

You know my take on politics mate... it's wrestling in suits. Trump won't have sat down and planned any of this himself. He's a front man. Taking down Iran has been on the Imperial agenda for years.

I think it's tragically more simple than that. Netanyahu has been pushing for this for ages. And from a tactical perspective, Iran might never be as weak as it is right now. Given his unpopularity at home, I think it became an easy sell for the orange one to get on board. I think he thought this was going to be another Venezuela, with no US military deaths. Something that might take Epstein off the front page and rally the base. But it seems like the base is truly fractured now. A lot of those folks truly believed in no more foreign entanglements, and America First. There's still a chance this works out for him, but if this keeps on expanding even if the Iranian people get the leadership they want, it might not be enough to save him domestically

 

[britbox]

I don't think this will be like a Venezuela, Iraq or Libya. Those western interventions were largely contained within each state's borders (for the most part). Iran is something else altogether. Iran is not some fictitious state drawn up by European cartographers (see the map of Africa) - it's an ancient civilisation. It's reach extends far beyond it's own borders - and if credible intelligence assessments are to be believed - there are sleeper cells in place throughout western civilisation.

 

[Federberg]

I don't think this will be like a Venezuela, Iraq or Libya. Those western interventions were largely contained within each state's borders (for the most part). Iran is something else altogether. Iran is not some fictitious state drawn up by European cartographers (see the map of Africa) - it's an ancient civilisation. It's reach extends far beyond it's own borders - and if credible intelligence assessments are to be believed - there are sleeper cells in place throughout western civilisation.

Agreed. You know it, I know it, most sensible people know it. But listen to Trump and he seems to have hoped at least at the start that it would go something like Venezuela did. I'm sure the Joint Chiefs would have strenuously advised him that wasn't the case. But he's the smartest guy in the room

 

[Federberg]

For you @britbox

 

[Moxie]

For you @britbox

Interesting to one of that goofballs points is that Trump is getting no patriotic bump from this invasion of Iran here. The messaging from Trump and Rubio is conflicting and incoherent, and soldiers are dead.

There is an argument that this and Venezuela have to do with choking oil for China, I have heard. BTW. I mean if we're wondering why it doesn't fit the narrative of his favoring Putin.

As to fiddling elections, apparently that has begun. This is such a complicated story, but let me see if I can lay it out for you. Last night, as the election results in Texas were starting to come in, it was announced that, due to a lot of confusion about where to vote, some areas of Dallas and El Paso would be held open past the closing time, as ordered by a judge. These were democratic polling places, as the republicans had decided not to hold common elections with democrats. So, separate sites. Then, Ken Paxton, who is running in the GOP primary, who also happens to be the AG of Texas currently, and therefore in charge of elections, called in the TX supreme court and they over ruled the order, and ordered every vote by a person not in line at 7pm to be held aside as provisional. For no reason that benefits him, just clear vote suppression.

Why the confusion about where to vote? When Texas changed its voting districts late last year, because Trump asked them to, they neglected to change the map on the state info page, so it was wrong. So when people went to the wrong places, they tried the local website, and crashed it, because so many people were confused, and being turned away. Another thing that factored in is that most of Texas allows you to vote anywhere within your precinct, usually. (A reason for that would be the great distances that a lot of people travel for work in a big state, and say also traffic in Dallas.) However, Republicans refused to allow that for the Dallas area this time. So people didn't realize they had to go to their exact polling place. Now, Dallas is urban and bluer, of course, and has many more black voters than a lot of Texas, so was supposed to be an area for Crockett to pick up a lot of votes.

I think you can see some of the groundwork being laid for complaining about how poorly run and unreliable elections are in blue cities. No one really expected it to start so soon, but you can see how this might play out, right? Change the rules, confuse the voters in districts that tend blue, and then declare their results to be unreliable and therefore not valuable. Suppress the vote.

In the end, the Dems declare Talarico the winner in the Democratic primary, because I think the provisional ballots weren't enough to push Crockett over his lead. Which is probably good, in the end, because there is a clear winner, whereas the Republicans are going to a runoff.

Sorry for the long, convoluted post, but this is how you fiddle elections. I hope you can get the flavor of what the concerns are here for the midterms.

 

[Moxie]

Enjoy the Hillbilly Redneck take on the Iran War.

 

[Kieran]

The only people surprised that Mamdani’s missus hates Jews is nobody. They knew what they were voting for…

 

[Federberg]

So hard to know if this is real…

 

[Moxie]

So hard to know if this is real…

That seems an easy fake...it's just audio. The internet seems to think it's AI.

 

[Moxie]

The only people surprised that Mamdani’s missus hates Jews is nobody. They knew what they were voting for…

Apparently she gave some likes to posts that supported Palestinian liberation, and yes, on October 7th. I don't know why you still can't distinguish support for Palestine and hatred of Jews. You also seem not able to distinguish support for the Palestinian people and support for Hamas, or dislike of Netanyahu from anti-Semitism.

 

[Kieran]

Apparently she gave some likes to posts that supported Palestinian liberation, and yes, on October 7th. I don't know why you still can't distinguish support for Palestine and hatred of Jews. You also seem not able to distinguish support for the Palestinian people and support for Hamas, or dislike of Netanyahu from anti-Semitism.

She liked posts denying the rapes of Jewish women. Support for Hamas in their attack on peace party people is indistinguishable from support for Palestine, which in real practical terms is non existent in these street cloggers masquerading as compassionate “protesters”. You saw that in your city when the fools rampaged on the streets and through the campuses screaming for the destruction of Israel, to the smug satisfaction of their tutors and (since disgraced) uni presidents.

Somehow these noble cowardly halfwits found that the Jews alone in the whole world were worth their time to complain about..

 

[Federberg]

That seems an easy fake...it's just audio. The internet seems to think it's AI.

I'm assuming it's AI, but who can really discount the possibility that it's real? I mean.. is there anything he said there that seems unreal? I guess the part about war.. that's the only thing that makes it far-fetched. I can imagine Netanyahu yanking his insecure tough guy persona to egg him into the operation. I find it harder to believe he would reflexively use war as a deflection option

 

[Moxie]

I'm assuming it's AI, but who can really discount the possibility that it's real? I mean.. is there anything he said there that seems unreal? I guess the part about war.. that's the only thing that makes it far-fetched. I can imagine Netanyahu yanking his insecure tough guy persona to egg him into the operation. I find it harder to believe he would reflexively use war as a deflection option

Personally, I think he's perfectly capable of having said all of that. Because he says crazy stuff off the top of his head all the time. But I think it's a fake for a few reasons. One, if he said it, and someone recorded it, then they leaked it. Some reporter out there has looked into a source, and no one in MSM has reported it, that I have seen. Then there's the ambient noise. It sounds like he's he does when he's shouting over chopper noise. I do not believe he would have said this out in the open, however foolish and impulsive he is. He'd have said it in a meeting. It would sound totally different. Now, let's say he did say it, shouting at his people on his way to his helicopter. Who recorded it? Secret service? Chopper pilot? I don't think it was anyone in the inner circle that he would have been speaking to.

As to whether or not he started a war to distract from the Epstein business...you certainly have seemed willing to attribute a lot of his other outrageous and dangerous behaviors to "distraction." But, like you here, I do think it's more about getting yanked around by Netanyahu, though it could be on his list of reasons that he's also hoping for distraction. With some thought to the midterms, though I'm not sure why he would think this could help him there.

 

[Federberg]

Personally, I think he's perfectly capable of having said all of that. Because he says crazy stuff off the top of his head all the time. But I think it's a fake for a few reasons. One, if he said it, and someone recorded it, then they leaked it. Some reporter out there has looked into a source, and no one in MSM has reported it, that I have seen. Then there's the ambient noise. It sounds like he's he does when he's shouting over chopper noise. I do not believe he would have said this out in the open, however foolish and impulsive he is. He'd have said it in a meeting. It would sound totally different. Now, let's say he did say it, shouting at his people on his way to his helicopter. Who recorded it? Secret service? Chopper pilot? I don't think it was anyone in the inner circle that he would have been speaking to.

As to whether or not he started a war to distract from the Epstein business...you certainly have seemed willing to attribute a lot of his other outrageous and dangerous behaviors to "distraction." But, like you here, I do think it's more about getting yanked around by Netanyahu, though it could be on his list of reasons that he's also hoping for distraction. With some thought to the midterms, though I'm not sure why he would think this could help him there.

Agreed.

Also I’m hearing that Trump thinks this Iran thing is popular