Who will be the best players of the next decade? (2025-35ish)

[El Dude]

Imagine we have a time travel device to go to 2035. Assuming the world hasn't collapsed in on itself (not a guarantee) or been mercifully destroyed by an asteroid strike, we can look back at at the previous decade or so and see who has had the best career on the ATP tour. Who do you think it will be, and how would you rank their careers up until that point?

I pick 2035 because that's far enough in the future that every player we know about will have reached and probably passed their peak level. Some of them won't be done and may still be winning big titles, but we should have a sense of how they might rank relative to each other, in terms of accomplishments. Oh, and I'm talking about now until then...not past accomplishments (sorry, Novak and Lost Gen II*).

This is purely speculative and just a bit of fun - so don't take it too seriously. But try to go beyond Sincaraz...I mean, it is easy to say they'll be the two best, but who next? While there are a few players outside of the top 100 that show some promise, I'm focusing only on guys who have entered the top 100. Meaning, no Federico Cina, Justin Engel, Darwin Blanch, and certainly no Cruz Hewitt, etc.

I'm also including a Likely Career Comp - not as a similar in terms of playing style, but the likely outcome for how good I see their career results to eventually be. This is obviously quite swingy, but I gave it a shot.

In rough order of future outcome:

1. CARLOS ALCARAZ - Even if he doesn't get any better, he's going to be winning 1-2 Slams a year and 2-3 Masters for years to come. But there is a chance of a truly incredible season: where he remains focused and just sweeps the field, winning 3+ Slams. For me, he's a more likely candidate to have a 3-Slam season than Sinner, just because of his dominance on clay and grass, and he's already won on hards (though before Sinner's breakout). Hey, he can still do it this year. That said, I can't see him having a long period of sustained "super-dominance"...Even if he finds another octave, he's likely to have down periods. Likely career comp: Pete Sampras (He could be the true heir to the Big Three, but I'm not ready to predict 20+ Slams for anyone at this point...Sampras is plenty good enough).
2. JANNIK SINNER - The Man, the Myth, the Machine. Jannik reminds me of Novak less in terms of his game (though there are obvious similarities) but more in terms of his extremely high floor. I'm not sure that Novak was, at his very best, a better player than Nadal and Federer at their very best; certainly Rafa on clay is the "context GOAT," and Federer in 2004-07 was the highest multi-year level of sustained dominance in Open Era history. But Novak was probably similarly brilliant to both at their respective bests, but with a more consistent high floor level across almost a decade and a half, with very little down periods - a more consistently great player than his two closest peers. I see Jannik in a similar mold. If Carlos is more likely to win 3 Slams in a year than Jannik and have a season for the ages, Jannik is more likely to win at least one Slam in each of the next 5+ years. Likely career comp: Ivan Lendl, but quite possibly with more Slams.
3. JOAO FONSECA - He's the only "guy with a name" that I believe can theoretically challenge the twin-crown hegemony of Sincaraz. Aside from unforeseen disaster, his floor is something like what we dreamed Tsitsipas might be back before it was clear he was a head-case: a clear "in-betweener" that bridges the true elite and the second tier. It is very rare that I feel so certain that an 18-year will eventually win a Slam - and likely multiple Slams. This isn't wishful thinking, and don't worry about the jinx - this kid has all-time great talent. I think the question is where on the spectrum of "almost great to true all-time great" he ends up. Barring injury, I think a worst-case scenario is that he becomes what Andy Murray** was in the Big Four Era (2008-16). Likely career comp: Boris Becker, with the potential for more.
4. JACK DRAPER - What have you done for me lately, Jack? After Indian Wells, you could say he's been a bit disappointing - a 4R exit at Roland Garros, 2R at Wimbledon; he's also only reached the QF or better at a Slam at the US Open last year (SF). But he's becoming one of the more consistently very good players on tour. It remains to be seen if he has another gear; I think he's close to his peak, but his rate of improvement over the last few years has been steady. I rank him here because he's probably the guy after Fonseca who I think has the best chance of winning a Slam - just edging out the next few guys. Likely career comp: Imagine Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but in a different era: maybe 3x as many Masters and a Slam or two. Or how about Michael Stich?
5. JAKUB MENSIK - While he's been rocky since, the level he showed at Miami was just too good to ignore. As I've said, by winning his first big title as a teenager, Mensik is in rare company. 75% of teenage big title winners go on to be all-time greats (nine of them, including Alcaraz); the rest range from Michael Chang to Holger Rune, Andrei Medvedev and Alberto Mancini. I suspect he'll be better than Medvedev/Mancini, but not an all-time great. Where he ends up relative to Chang remains to be seen. Likely career comp: Goran Ivansevic.
6. HOLGER RUNE - To quote Brokeback Mountain, "I can't quit you." Well, I'm quitting Holger as a future elite, but the talent is still there to be very good. Something is just not clicking, though - he probably needs a hard-ass coach like Ivan Lendl or Goran Ivanisevic. Likely career comp: Tomas Berdych, with the potential to be a higher floor Stan Wawrinka.
7. BEN SHELTON - He is still improving. He's top 10 now and I think remains a fixture for years to come, even dipping into the top 5. I don't see him as ever being #1, but he could sneak in a Slam or two and is likely to win some Masters before he's done. Likely career comp: Richard Krajicek if he manages to win a Slam, Berdych/Tsonga if he doesn't.
8. ARTHUR FILS - His stock has fluctuated a bit. He went from #251 in 2022 to #36 in 2023, then slowed down a bit to #19 in 2024 - but he not only consolidated his bonafides as a top 40 guy, but won a couple ATP 500s. He started 2025 a bit slow, but then reached three Masters QF in a row before dipping again, presumably due to an injury that is keeping him out of Wimbledon. My personal take is similar to Shelton: He's a solid bet to be a consistent second tier type - a fixture in the top 10 and Masters winner, but I don't see him as a regular in the top 5. Likely career comp: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is too easy and shows up again, but it works.
9. LORENZO MUSETTI - He's hard to rank. He's jumped a notch this year and at 23 years old, I think he's in his prime - meaning, he's unlikely to get much better. But I think he can be a consistent top 10 guy for the next half decade and win a Masters or three. He's a Slam dark-horse - chances are probably against him, but it isn't impossible. Likely career comp: I'm thinking something lke Richard Gasquet or Grigor Dimitrov, though unlikely as "longevitous" as either.
10. ALEX DE MINAUR - He's sort of a cuspy guy, in terms of both generation (born in 1999) and ability level (top 10, but more through consistency, with no big titles thus far). In my generations model, he's Gen Sincaraz (1999-2003), but he's been around for awhile. Likely career comp: A lesser version of Casper Ruud or David Ferrer, maybe Richard Gasquet or someone from back in the day like Harold Solomon or Jose Higueras, but without the handful of big titles that Solomon has.
11. LEARNER TIEN - I think he became a little overrated when he beat Medvedev at the AO. It wasn't clear yet just how much Daniil had slipped. But Tien still looks like a good player, but I see him as someone who might dip into the top 10, but settles more in the 10-20 range. Likely career comp: Gilles Simon or David Goffin.
12. ALEX MICHELSEN - To be honest, I don't have a read on this guy, so won't say much. But he's kind of snuck up on the top 40 (he's at #30 in the live rankings) and doesn't turn 21 until August, so he's the second highest ranked player who won't be legally drinking when the North America tour stars, but his ranking is entirely due to reaching the QF/SF of minor tournaments. Put a pin in him and we'll see. Likely career comp: Who knows. Let's stick with Americans and say somewhere between 'Foe and Fritz.

NOTES:
*A Note on Next Gen (or "Lost Gen II" ala @Fiero425). They seem to be, as a group, winding down. This is not to say that they won't win more big titles or even that a stray Slam or two can't be miraculously won by someone born in the 20th century, but the window is closing and, more to the point of this inquiry, we already know what all of them can do. None of them - whether the leading "Little Three" of Medvedev, Zverev, and Tsitsipas, or the next group of Rublev, Fritz, Ruud, Berrettini, Khachanov, Hurkacz, and the rest - are likely to have a significant jump in ability. So while it is possible that one or two of these guys wins more big titles going forward than a Tien or Michelsen does, I think their primes are winding down.

**As I've said before, I consider Andy Murray an all-time great. He "only" won 3 Slams, but appeared in 11 finals, won a ton of big titles - including a TF and two Olympics - and was the year-end #1 in 2016 -- all at a time when his usual opponent in a Slam final was one of the three greatest players of the Open Era (5 losses to Novak, 3 to Roger...and he beat Novak twice in finals). As a player, I think he belongs in the category of Wilander, Edberg, and Becker, even if his Slam count says otherwise. In my own all-time rankings, I place him after those three because results do matter, but he fills the same role in the all-time list as he did in his prime: worst of the best, best of the rest. After the 5+ Slam winners, he's the next best guy.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Imagine we have a time travel device to go to 2035. Assuming the world hasn't collapsed in on itself (not a guarantee) or been mercifully destroyed by an asteroid strike, we can look back at at the previous decade or so and see who has had the best career on the ATP tour. Who do you think it will be, and how would you rank their careers up until that point?

I pick 2035 because that's far enough in the future that every player we know about will have reached and probably passed their peak level. Some of them won't be done and may still be winning big titles, but we should have a sense of how they might rank relative to each other, in terms of accomplishments. Oh, and I'm talking about now until then...not past accomplishments (sorry, Novak and Lost Gen II*).

This is purely speculative and just a bit of fun - so don't take it too seriously. But try to go beyond Sincaraz...I mean, it is easy to say they'll be the two best, but who next? While there are a few players outside of the top 100 that show some promise, I'm focusing only on guys who have entered the top 100. Meaning, no Federico Cina, Justin Engel, Darwin Blanch, and certainly no Cruz Hewitt, etc.

I'm also including a Likely Career Comp - not as a similar in terms of playing style, but the likely outcome for how good I see their career results to eventually be. This is obviously quite swingy, but I gave it a shot.

In rough order of future outcome:

1. CARLOS ALCARAZ - Even if he doesn't get any better, he's going to be winning 1-2 Slams a year and 2-3 Masters for years to come. But there is a chance of a truly incredible season: where he remains focused and just sweeps the field, winning 3+ Slams. For me, he's a more likely candidate to have a 3-Slam season than Sinner, just because of his dominance on clay and grass, and he's already won on hards (though before Sinner's breakout). Hey, he can still do it this year. That said, I can't see him having a long period of sustained "super-dominance"...Even if he finds another octave, he's likely to have down periods. Likely career comp: Pete Sampras (He could be the true heir to the Big Three, but I'm not ready to predict 20+ Slams for anyone at this point...Sampras is plenty good enough).
2. JANNIK SINNER - The Man, the Myth, the Machine. Jannik reminds me of Novak less in terms of his game (though there are obvious similarities) but more in terms of his extremely high floor. I'm not sure that Novak was, at his very best, a better player than Nadal and Federer at their very best; certainly Rafa on clay is the "context GOAT," and Federer in 2004-07 was the highest multi-year level of sustained dominance in Open Era history. But Novak was probably similarly brilliant to both at their respective bests, but with a more consistent high floor level across almost a decade and a half, with very little down periods - a more consistently great player than his two closest peers. I see Jannik in a similar mold. If Carlos is more likely to win 3 Slams in a year than Jannik and have a season for the ages, Jannik is more likely to win at least one Slam in each of the next 5+ years. Likely career comp: Ivan Lendl, but quite possibly with more Slams.
3. JOAO FONSECA - He's the only "guy with a name" that I believe can theoretically challenge the twin-crown hegemony of Sincaraz. Aside from unforeseen disaster, his floor is something like what we dreamed Tsitsipas might be back before it was clear he was a head-case: a clear "in-betweener" that bridges the true elite and the second tier. It is very rare that I feel so certain that an 18-year will eventually win a Slam - and likely multiple Slams. This isn't wishful thinking, and don't worry about the jinx - this kid has all-time great talent. I think the question is where on the spectrum of "almost great to true all-time great" he ends up. Barring injury, I think a worst-case scenario is that he becomes what Andy Murray** was in the Big Four Era (2008-16). Likely career comp: Boris Becker, with the potential for more.
4. JACK DRAPER - What have you done for me lately, Jack? After Indian Wells, you could say he's been a bit disappointing - a 4R exit at Roland Garros, 2R at Wimbledon; he's also only reached the QF or better at a Slam at the US Open last year (SF). But he's becoming one of the more consistently very good players on tour. It remains to be seen if he has another gear; I think he's close to his peak, but his rate of improvement over the last few years has been steady. I rank him here because he's probably the guy after Fonseca who I think has the best chance of winning a Slam - just edging out the next few guys. Likely career comp: Imagine Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but in a different era: maybe 3x as many Masters and a Slam or two. Or how about Michael Stich?
5. JAKUB MENSIK - While he's been rocky since, the level he showed at Miami was just too good to ignore. As I've said, by winning his first big title as a teenager, Mensik is in rare company. 75% of teenage big title winners go on to be all-time greats (nine of them, including Alcaraz); the rest range from Michael Chang to Holger Rune, Andrei Medvedev and Alberto Mancini. I suspect he'll be better than Medvedev/Mancini, but not an all-time great. Where he ends up relative to Chang remains to be seen. Likely career comp: Goran Ivansevic.
6. HOLGER RUNE - To quote Brokeback Mountain, "I can't quit you." Well, I'm quitting Holger as a future elite, but the talent is still there to be very good. Something is just not clicking, though - he probably needs a hard-ass coach like Ivan Lendl or Goran Ivanisevic. Likely career comp: Tomas Berdych, with the potential to be a higher floor Stan Wawrinka.
7. BEN SHELTON - He is still improving. He's top 10 now and I think remains a fixture for years to come, even dipping into the top 5. I don't see him as ever being #1, but he could sneak in a Slam or two and is likely to win some Masters before he's done. Likely career comp: Richard Krajicek if he manages to win a Slam, Berdych/Tsonga if he doesn't.
8. ARTHUR FILS - His stock has fluctuated a bit. He went from #251 in 2022 to #36 in 2023, then slowed down a bit to #19 in 2024 - but he not only consolidated his bonafides as a top 40 guy, but won a couple ATP 500s. He started 2025 a bit slow, but then reached three Masters QF in a row before dipping again, presumably due to an injury that is keeping him out of Wimbledon. My personal take is similar to Shelton: He's a solid bet to be a consistent second tier type - a fixture in the top 10 and Masters winner, but I don't see him as a regular in the top 5. Likely career comp: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is too easy and shows up again, but it works.
9. LORENZO MUSETTI - He's hard to rank. He's jumped a notch this year and at 23 years old, I think he's in his prime - meaning, he's unlikely to get much better. But I think he can be a consistent top 10 guy for the next half decade and win a Masters or three. He's a Slam dark-horse - chances are probably against him, but it isn't impossible. Likely career comp: I'm thinking something lke Richard Gasquet or Grigor Dimitrov, though unlikely as "longevitous" as either.
10. ALEX DE MINAUR - He's sort of a cuspy guy, in terms of both generation (born in 1999) and ability level (top 10, but more through consistency, with no big titles thus far). In my generations model, he's Gen Sincaraz (1999-2003), but he's been around for awhile. Likely career comp: A lesser version of Casper Ruud or David Ferrer, maybe Richard Gasquet or someone from back in the day like Harold Solomon or Jose Higueras, but without the handful of big titles that Solomon has.
11. LEARNER TIEN - I think he became a little overrated when he beat Medvedev at the AO. It wasn't clear yet just how much Daniil had slipped. But Tien still looks like a good player, but I see him as someone who might dip into the top 10, but settles more in the 10-20 range. Likely career comp: Gilles Simon or David Goffin.
12. ALEX MICHELSEN - To be honest, I don't have a read on this guy, so won't say much. But he's kind of snuck up on the top 40 (he's at #30 in the live rankings) and doesn't turn 21 until August, so he's the second highest ranked player who won't be legally drinking when the North America tour stars, but his ranking is entirely due to reaching the QF/SF of minor tournaments. Put a pin in him and we'll see. Likely career comp: Who knows. Let's stick with Americans and say somewhere between 'Foe and Fritz.

NOTES:
*A Note on Next Gen (or "Lost Gen II" ala @Fiero425). They seem to be, as a group, winding down. This is not to say that they won't win more big titles or even that a stray Slam or two can't be miraculously won by someone born in the 20th century, but the window is closing and, more to the point of this inquiry, we already know what all of them can do. None of them - whether the leading "Little Three" of Medvedev, Zverev, and Tsitsipas, or the next group of Rublev, Fritz, Ruud, Berrettini, Khachanov, Hurkacz, and the rest - are likely to have a significant jump in ability. So while it is possible that one or two of these guys wins more big titles going forward than a Tien or Michelsen does, I think their primes are winding down.

**As I've said before, I consider Andy Murray an all-time great. He "only" won 3 Slams, but appeared in 11 finals, won a ton of big titles - including a TF and two Olympics - and was the year-end #1 in 2016 -- all at a time when his usual opponent in a Slam final was one of the three greatest players of the Open Era (5 losses to Novak, 3 to Roger...and he beat Novak twice in finals). As a player, I think he belongs in the category of Wilander, Edberg, and Becker, even if his Slam count says otherwise. In my own all-time rankings, I place him after those three because results do matter, but he fills the same role in the all-time list as he did in his prime: worst of the best, best of the rest. After the 5+ Slam winners, he's the next best guy.

So, El Dude, do you still think Alcaraz will have a higher chance of 3 slam season than Sinner?

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Sinner should be getting 3 slam seasons more often because the competition is much weaker now than in the Big 3 era. Even if Sinner wins the calendar slam, I value the multiple/3 grand slam seasons of Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal more because not only did they go up against each other, they also had to go up against great players in the next tier like Murray, Wawrinka, and del Potro.

Sinner lost to Bublik at Halle and struggled against Dmitrov at Wimbledon. Heck, he even lost to Medvedev at Wimbledon last year. Federer and Djokovic would have won the calendar slam if this was their competition, rather than facing each other, Nadal, Murray, Wawrinka, and del Potro.

 

[El Dude]

Sinner should be getting 3 slam seasons more often because the competition is much weaker now than in the Big 3 era. Even if Sinner wins the calendar slam, I value the multiple/3 grand slam seasons of Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal more because not only did they go up against each other, they also had to go up against great players in the next tier like Murray, Wawrinka, and del Potro.

Sinner lost to Bublik at Halle and struggled against Dmitrov at Wimbledon. Heck, he even lost to Medvedev at Wimbledon last year. Federer and Djokovic would have won the calendar slam if this was their competition, rather than facing each other, Nadal, Murray, Wawrinka, and del Potro.

Haha, well obviously not right now. But yeah, I hear you about the 3-Slam seasons - and of course, 3+1 with the fourth being a final. Or really, a 4-final season is amazing in any era, regardless of outcome.

As for Sinner, he was still a bit wobbly, so I don't think it is that big of a deal. Plus, one of the things that separates the greats is their ability to find a way, even when they're not firing on all cylinders.

But yeah, I think it is likely that Roger would have won the calendar Slam in 2006-07, if not for Rafa.

 

[shawnbm]

I think that Sinner and Alcaraz will each win more than 20 Masters events and more than 10 majors--how far above those numbers is hard to tell, as injury or personal events can change things. One or both could be like the great Swede and bow out after only five years or so--hell, the money they earn now dwarfs what Connors, McEnroe and Borg and Chrissie and Martina earned (makes it a lot easier to call it a day). But, if they play another 15 years? Hard to not see one or both of them not winning a major a year TBH.

 

[Front242]

Hopefully Henry Bernet will be in the mix.

 

[El Dude]

Hopefully Henry Bernet will be in the mix.

Yeah, I've got my eye on him. When I wrote this, I didn't know about him and like other young guys, wasn't in the top 100 so wasn't eligible. I think he's played all of four ATP tour matches, so let's see how it goes.