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Make your predictions. Who will win their first big title in 2018 and, if you're more daring, 2019 and beyond?
For reference, here are first-time big title winners by year:
2017: 3 - Zverev, Dimitrov, Sock
2016: 0
2015: 0
2014: 2 - Wawrinka, Cilic
2013: 0
2012: 1 - Ferrer
2011: 0
2010: 2 - Soderling, Ljubicic
2009: 1 - del Potro
2008: 2 - Murray, Tsonga
2007: 1 - Djokovic
2006: 1 - Robredo
2005: 2 - Nadal, Berdych
2004: 2 - Gaudio, Massu
2003: 4 - Roddick, Coria, Mantilla, Henman
2002: 2 - Federer, Canas
2001: 6 - Hewitt, Portas, Ferrero, Pavel, Haas, Grosjean
2000: 3 - Safin, Pioline, Norman
1999: 2 - Phillipoussis, Johansson
1998: 3 - Moya, Costa, Rusedski
1997: 6 - Kuerten, Rafter, Rios, Corretja, Woodruff, Korda
1996: 5 - Kafelnikov, Krajicek, Carratero, Ferreira, Enqvist
1995: 0
1994: 1 - Medvedev
1993: 1 - Pernfors
1992: 2 - Ivanisevic, Rosset
1991: 6 - Stich, Courier, Bruguera, Novacek, Sanchez, Forget
1990: 3 - Sampras, Muster, Chesnokov
I'm hoping that's accurate. Anyhow, a couple things to consider.
One, with three new big title winners in 2017, it is the most in a year since 2003.
From 2011-17, most years (four out of seven) saw no new big title winners. Compare that to 1990-2010, in which there was only one year (1995) with no new big title winner. This clearly speaks to Big Four hegemony.
OK, now for predictions. Who knows who will actually be new big title winners, but here are my most likely candidates:
2018: Kyrgios, Thiem, Goffin, Raonic/Nishikori (I pair these guys because time may be passing them by, but they are over-due)
2019: Rublev, Khachanov, Medvedev
2020: Shapovalov, Tiafoe, Tsitsipas
2021: Aliassime, Moutet
Or something like that. Again, I'm not necessarily saying those players will win big titles in those years, just that those are the years I think they become serious candidates.
For reference, here are first-time big title winners by year:
2017: 3 - Zverev, Dimitrov, Sock
2016: 0
2015: 0
2014: 2 - Wawrinka, Cilic
2013: 0
2012: 1 - Ferrer
2011: 0
2010: 2 - Soderling, Ljubicic
2009: 1 - del Potro
2008: 2 - Murray, Tsonga
2007: 1 - Djokovic
2006: 1 - Robredo
2005: 2 - Nadal, Berdych
2004: 2 - Gaudio, Massu
2003: 4 - Roddick, Coria, Mantilla, Henman
2002: 2 - Federer, Canas
2001: 6 - Hewitt, Portas, Ferrero, Pavel, Haas, Grosjean
2000: 3 - Safin, Pioline, Norman
1999: 2 - Phillipoussis, Johansson
1998: 3 - Moya, Costa, Rusedski
1997: 6 - Kuerten, Rafter, Rios, Corretja, Woodruff, Korda
1996: 5 - Kafelnikov, Krajicek, Carratero, Ferreira, Enqvist
1995: 0
1994: 1 - Medvedev
1993: 1 - Pernfors
1992: 2 - Ivanisevic, Rosset
1991: 6 - Stich, Courier, Bruguera, Novacek, Sanchez, Forget
1990: 3 - Sampras, Muster, Chesnokov
I'm hoping that's accurate. Anyhow, a couple things to consider.
One, with three new big title winners in 2017, it is the most in a year since 2003.
From 2011-17, most years (four out of seven) saw no new big title winners. Compare that to 1990-2010, in which there was only one year (1995) with no new big title winner. This clearly speaks to Big Four hegemony.
OK, now for predictions. Who knows who will actually be new big title winners, but here are my most likely candidates:
2018: Kyrgios, Thiem, Goffin, Raonic/Nishikori (I pair these guys because time may be passing them by, but they are over-due)
2019: Rublev, Khachanov, Medvedev
2020: Shapovalov, Tiafoe, Tsitsipas
2021: Aliassime, Moutet
Or something like that. Again, I'm not necessarily saying those players will win big titles in those years, just that those are the years I think they become serious candidates.