US Open Betting Odds

[Fiero425]

Here are the latest odds three hours after the announcement by Rafa. Finally,
the oddsmakers have come to senses and recognize that Fed is the second favorite.


Novak Djokovic 13/10 ------------ 43%
Roger Federer 15/4 --------------- 31%
Andy Murray 9/2 ------------------ 18%
Stan Wawrinka 16 ---------------- 6%
Grigor Dimitrov 18 --------------- 5%

Note that the percentages do not add up to 100. This is because, as I explained in
the previous post, the data for each player is coming from different betting houses.

That's if he hasn't worn himself out winning that last Masters tournament! He went 3 sets a lot and being over 30 doesn't help! I wouldn't mind him winning, but I wouldn't put any money on him making the final; even with Rafa out of the USO! :nono uzzled :angel:

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The world had a full days time to digest Rafa's announcement and after that here are the odds.

Novak Djokovic 7/5 -------- 42%
Roger Federer 7/2 --------- 22%
Andy Murray 9/2 ----------- 18%
Stan Wawrinka 16 ----------- 6%
Grigor Dimitrov 20 ----------- 5%

Roger's odds have slightly improved. I made a typo in the previous post for Roger's %.
It should be 21% in that post and not 31%. Fixed it now.

 

[DarthFed]

Murray's odds are ridiculously high IMO. Stan's odds aren't so bad, he could quietly be a threat here though another early exit wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Federberg]

High as in expensive? i.e., no value in it? He's after all the 2nd to last winner, so some legacy effects there. I agree I wouldn't punt on him. For a betting man, it would have been better to see Rafa in the draw, as it might have cheapened Roger's odds. The beauty would be that Rafa is unlikely (given his lack of match practice) to have reached the semi-final stage, so he would served to make the Federer outright winner odds more attractive

 

[DarthFed]

Yea, betting on Murray at that payout looks really bad right now. I know he is still Andy Murray but you can't ignore the year he has had and then you factor in a couple more shaky hardcourt tournaments leading up to USO and his odds seem a lot worse to me than what they are giving him.

 

[herios]

Murray's odds are ridiculously high IMO. Stan's odds aren't so bad, he could quietly be a threat here though another early exit wouldn't surprise me.

It went down a little, now at 5. Also Stan's is down from 16 to 18.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here is one last update on odds before the draw comes out.

Novak Djokovic 7/5 ----------- 42%
Roger Federer 7/2 ----------- 22%
Andy Murray 5 ----------- 17%
Stan Wawrinka 18 ---------- 5%
Grigor Dimitrov 20 ---------- 5%

Basically, it remains the same for Novak and Fed. However, for everybody else the
odds have worsened.

 

[Federberg]

I think there's definitely value in punting on Dimitrov. I could see him making quarters or semis. So make the bet, and lay it off when it tightens later. It could leave you with an 8/1 free bet. Not bad..

 

[TennisFanatic7]

I don't know how the odds have changed since the draw but none of those really look attractive to me.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the latest odds, a couple of hours after the draw is out.

Novak Djokovic 6/4 ---- 40%
Roger Federer 3 -------- 25%
Andy Murray 7 ---------- 12.5%
Stan Wawrinka 15 ------- 6.25%
Grigor Dimitrov 16 ------- 5.88%

Needles to say, Fed's odds have come down and Andy's odds have gone up.
But, Andy manages to keep his third spot with a good margin.

 

[Billie]

This is a funny story: a Nole fan, who is very disappointed at Nole's performances in Toronto and Cinci, said that he doesn't understand why the odds makers make him a favourite to win the USO. He wrote that "they either didn't watch his pathetic performances from these two tournaments or they asked Billie" :laydownlaughing:lolz:

 

[Kieran]

In fairness, I think he's favourite, if he raises his game a little. It's to be expected that straight after the biggest day of his life - with Jelena - that the MS tourneys wouldn't matter too much. I expect more from him at Flushing Meadows, and remember that at Wimbledon he showed nothing before the final to suggest that he'd beat Federer, but he did. If he faces Federer in the final this time, a lot will depend on how hard Nole makes it for himself to get there...

 

[isabelle]

According to l'Equipe John Mc Enroe voted for Nole as USO's winner

 

[herios]

In fairness, I think he's favourite, if he raises his game a little. It's to be expected that straight after the biggest day of his life - with Jelena - that the MS tourneys wouldn't matter too much. I expect more from him at Flushing Meadows, and remember that at Wimbledon he showed nothing before the final to suggest that he'd beat Federer, but he did. If he faces Federer in the final this time, a lot will depend on how hard Nole makes it for himself to get there...

The last article on ATP site mentions Nole saying he was "emotionally flat and a bit slow in getting back in competition mode" in Toronto and Cincinnati.
Also he says he is "extremely motivated and inspired" to get his 2014 campaign back on track and emerge victorious in New York.

I hope he does.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

This will be the last update before the first serve is struck.


Novak Djokovic 8/5 ---- 38%
Roger Federer 11/4 ---- 27%
Andy Murray 8 ---------- 11%
Stan Wawrinka 16 ------- 6%
Grigor Dimitrov 20 ------- 5%

Basically, Novak's and Andy's odds have increased a little bit (lower chances of
winning the tourney), while Fed's odds have decreased a little bit (higher chances of winning the
tourney). Not much change in the rest.

 

[TennisFanatic7]

That is now about how I'd put it. Andy should still be ahead of guys like Stan and Grigor but a distance behind Roger and Nole.

 

[DarthFed]

More reasonable now. Murray's projected path is brutal right now. Roger seems like a decent bet there. With that draw he should have more than 50% chance to reach the final IMO and if it's Nole he would be a slight underdog, anyone else he'd be the clear favorite.

With Nole I'd wait a few matches to see where his game is at. If he looks strong the first few then I'd say that looks like a good bet too. Murray and Stan are the only ones that should trouble him and they are question marks going into this tourney too.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

With 4 men standing, here are the current odds.

Novak Djokovic 1/2 -------- 66.67%
Roger Federer 13/5 -------- 27.78%
Marin Cilic 18 ----------------- 5.26%
Kei Nishikori 24 -------------- 4.00%

 

[TennisFanatic7]

According to Sky Bet, Nishikori was 280/1 before the tournament and Cilic 180/1.

I believe that equates to 0.035% for Kei and 0.55% for Cilic.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The bookies slightly favor Kei over Cilic.