The Big 3 - Buying or Selling?

[Riotbeard]

Novak: Buy
Fed: Hold
Rafa: I am selling half of my shares, but might keep a few, in case they jump up again.

Big 3+1
Andy: Hold.

 

[britbox]

Not quite sure how this thing works... but if you're looking at points then Nadal is BUY BUY BUY. He's got half a year of points to get stuck into once you clear June. Shrewd investors would wait until after Roland Garros however.

 

[Riotbeard]

Not quite sure how this thing works... but if you're looking at points then Nadal is BUY BUY BUY. He's got half a year of points to get stuck into once you clear June. Shrewd investors would wait until after Roland Garros however.

Maybe, but rafa is not even doing particularly well in the year to date rankings, and this is usually his most successful part of the year. I mean if he wins RG, everything might change, so it might be prudent to wait, but I wouldn't favor him to be much of a factor in the second half of the season if he doesn't win in Paris...

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

 

[britbox]

Not quite sure how this thing works... but if you're looking at points then Nadal is BUY BUY BUY. He's got half a year of points to get stuck into once you clear June. Shrewd investors would wait until after Roland Garros however.

Maybe, but rafa is not even doing particularly well in the year to date rankings, and this is usually his most successful part of the year. I mean if he wins RG, everything might change, so it might be prudent to wait, but I wouldn't favor him to be much of a factor in the second half of the season if he doesn't win in Paris...

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

Clear June and I think he has zero points to defend for the rest of the year? Maybe somebody could confirm...

 

[Riotbeard]

Not quite sure how this thing works... but if you're looking at points then Nadal is BUY BUY BUY. He's got half a year of points to get stuck into once you clear June. Shrewd investors would wait until after Roland Garros however.

Maybe, but rafa is not even doing particularly well in the year to date rankings, and this is usually his most successful part of the year. I mean if he wins RG, everything might change, so it might be prudent to wait, but I wouldn't favor him to be much of a factor in the second half of the season if he doesn't win in Paris...

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

Clear June and I think he has zero points to defend for the rest of the year? Maybe somebody could confirm...

He played a few tournaments, but not much, but point being, if he doesn't win RG, he is not even top 5 Y2D during his best part of the season. He might rise above 7 again, but top 4, I doubt if he doesn't win RG.

 

[Kieran]

Not quite sure how this thing works... but if you're looking at points then Nadal is BUY BUY BUY. He's got half a year of points to get stuck into once you clear June. Shrewd investors would wait until after Roland Garros however.

This is my view as well. He's got about 3 points to defend between Wimbo and Oz, and they're points on his license from speeding around the Med on his mega yacht...

 

[britbox]

Maybe, but rafa is not even doing particularly well in the year to date rankings, and this is usually his most successful part of the year. I mean if he wins RG, everything might change, so it might be prudent to wait, but I wouldn't favor him to be much of a factor in the second half of the season if he doesn't win in Paris...

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

Clear June and I think he has zero points to defend for the rest of the year? Maybe somebody could confirm...

He played a few tournaments, but not much, but point being, if he doesn't win RG, he is not even top 5 Y2D during his best part of the season. He might rise above 7 again, but top 4, I doubt if he doesn't win RG.

If you were investing, you'd wait until after Roland Garros because he can only break even by winning the tournament. After that... he's got bugger all to defend.... You'd make a fortune if this was Forex Nadal.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Not quite sure how this thing works... but if you're looking at points then Nadal is BUY BUY BUY. He's got half a year of points to get stuck into once you clear June. Shrewd investors would wait until after Roland Garros however.

Maybe, but rafa is not even doing particularly well in the year to date rankings, and this is usually his most successful part of the year. I mean if he wins RG, everything might change, so it might be prudent to wait, but I wouldn't favor him to be much of a factor in the second half of the season if he doesn't win in Paris...

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

In terms of defending points, yes he has very less to defend after RG. But, I agree with RB that
if Rafa cannot win RG, he will not be a major factor for the rest of the year even though he may win more points than last year.

When you put all eggs in basket...............

 

[Riotbeard]

Clear June and I think he has zero points to defend for the rest of the year? Maybe somebody could confirm...

He played a few tournaments, but not much, but point being, if he doesn't win RG, he is not even top 5 Y2D during his best part of the season. He might rise above 7 again, but top 4, I doubt if he doesn't win RG.

If you were investing, you'd wait until after Roland Garros because he can only break even by winning the tournament. After that... he's got bugger all to defend.... You'd make a fortune if this was Forex Nadal.

Yes if we are going literal to point, Rafa is at a can't get much worse and has nothing to defend outside of RG, so buy, but if we are not being too literal to whole stock-market analogy, I would sell in terms of he won't be a competitor on a level we expect of rafa.

 

[Kieran]

^^ Ouch! :-/

Cut the bloke some slack. He's still not firing on all cylinders. If he still shows signs of this come autumn, then bin your stock, but his whole season doesn't end in June, unless we have a write-off like 2012 or last year, and nobody really wants that (well, most people don't)...

 

[nehmeth]

If he still shows signs of this come autumn, then bin your stock, but his whole season doesn't end in June, unless we have a write-off like 2012 or last year, and nobody really wants that.

Rafa's figured out ways to reinvent himself after each setback, whether injury or other obstacle. He has few points to defend after RG, so waiting to the end of the year is probably wise. I think he'll need some fortuitous placements within the draw at Wimbo to make it to the 2nd week, and he could catch fire from there. He's also been successful on the summer hard courts in the past. But he usually gains momentum during the European clay court season, and there's only two more weeks of that left.

 

[Front242]

Few points to defend after RG but he likely won't gain a whole lot of points either going by past seasons!

 

[Kieran]

If he still shows signs of this come autumn, then bin your stock, but his whole season doesn't end in June, unless we have a write-off like 2012 or last year, and nobody really wants that.

Rafa's figured out ways to reinvent himself after each setback, whether injury or other obstacle. He has few points to defend after RG, so waiting to the end of the year is probably wise. I think he'll need some fortuitous placements within the draw at Wimbo to make it to the 2nd week, and he could catch fire from there. He's also been successful on the summer hard courts in the past. But he usually gains momentum during the European clay court season, and there's only two more weeks of that left.

There's 3. Next week is practice, then he has two whole weeks in Paris...

 

[Riotbeard]

^^ Ouch! :-/

Cut the bloke some slack. He's still not firing on all cylinders. If he still shows signs of this come autumn, then bin your stock, but his whole season doesn't end in June, unless we have a write-off like 2012 or last year, and nobody really wants that (well, most people don't)...

Obviously, he might be able to put it together (I am not personally optimistic, unless he defends RG), but it's not a recent dip in form, it's been going on for a year and a half. He pulled it together for two weeks last years at RG, but I am not basing this on just this season.

 

[Kieran]

^^ Ouch! :-/

Cut the bloke some slack. He's still not firing on all cylinders. If he still shows signs of this come autumn, then bin your stock, but his whole season doesn't end in June, unless we have a write-off like 2012 or last year, and nobody really wants that (well, most people don't)...

Obviously, he might be able to put it together (I am not personally optimistic, unless he defends RG), but it's not a recent dip in form, it's been going on for a year and a half. He pulled it together for two weeks last years at RG, but I am not basing this on just this season.

No, that's true, but I'm going to cut him some slack. I never purchased the dopey propaganda written by some that Rafa always bounced back immediately from injury, springing with a leap to his best again. He never did, not even once. And this time, he's the same. Now, these things can happen, that he never gets it back, but that's why I'd wait. He may catch fire in Paris, or Wimbo, or late season, or he may just slump into permanent faded mediocrity.

I think - and hope - it's the former. That's why I'd speculate and buy...

 

[TennisFanatic7]

Can we make this a forum game? Give everyone 1000 TF Dollars to invest and put their fake money where their mouth is? I have seen similar things on other forums =)

Sent from my KFTHWI using Tapatalk

 

[Kieran]

Just to be clear, because some people get terribly dopey when it comes to Rafa (not you, buddy) but he seems physically to have recovered and he's moving well, and occasionally hitting well, but his confidence is low, and this seems the final piece for him. That, and the habit of victory. These may not come back, but I would be less surprised if they do. I remember one year, Pete had won nothing for more than 6 months, then he arrived at Wimbledon and it transformed him. Navratilova was the same, and Rafa is something similar in Paris.

But even if it doesn't happen there, I still think he's too great to be "finished..."

 

[herios]

It would be very odd to see Rafa playing better on HC in the second half od the season than on his "used to be beloved clay".
I am not saying is impossible, but I have hard time picturing it.

That is why for me is a SELL

 

[Riotbeard]

^^ Ouch! :-/

Cut the bloke some slack. He's still not firing on all cylinders. If he still shows signs of this come autumn, then bin your stock, but his whole season doesn't end in June, unless we have a write-off like 2012 or last year, and nobody really wants that (well, most people don't)...

Obviously, he might be able to put it together (I am not personally optimistic, unless he defends RG), but it's not a recent dip in form, it's been going on for a year and a half. He pulled it together for two weeks last years at RG, but I am not basing this on just this season.

No, that's true, but I'm going to cut him some slack. I never purchased the dopey propaganda written by some that Rafa always bounced back immediately from injury, springing with a leap to his best again. He never did, not even once. And this time, he's the same. Now, these things can happen, that he never gets it back, but that's why I'd wait. He may catch fire in Paris, or Wimbo, or late season, or he may just slump into permanent faded mediocrity.

I think - and hope - it's the former. That's why I'd speculate and buy...

I did say I was keeping half of my shares in Rafa just in case!

 

[Riotbeard]

Just to be clear, because some people get terribly dopey when it comes to Rafa (not you, buddy) but he seems physically to have recovered and he's moving well, and occasionally hitting well, but his confidence is low, and this seems the final piece for him. That, and the habit of victory. These may not come back, but I would be less surprised if they do. I remember one year, Pete had won nothing for more than 6 months, then he arrived at Wimbledon and it transformed him. Navratilova was the same, and Rafa is something similar in Paris.

But even if it doesn't happen there, I still think he's too great to be "finished..."

I don't think he's finished (probably has another slam in him), but I don't think he ever has another banner year, and at some point his body won't recover, as a result I find it less likely he makes a huge impact on the second half of the season