"Leave" Wins

[GameSetAndMath]

BBC, ITV, and several others has projected that "leave" wins by narrow margin.

Some speculations are that PM might resign either immediately or announce his resignation effective from some date in the future. Also, there is speculation that Scotland might want a separate referendum now on leaving from UK as Scotland voted to "remain" with a thumping majority.

British Pound has already fallen about 15% compared to US$, with more expected when London market goes to business shortly.

Euro is also taking a hit.

Let the chaos begin.

 

[Kieran]

I live in Ireland, so we see the EU is all its guises. We benefitted with superior infrastructure, loans, investment, free movements around the EU states, etc, but we suffered terribly at its hands too, and I'm glad Britain has voted to leave. The EU began because (as one historian put it) the French were afraid of the Germans, and the Germans were afraid of the Germans!

It was initially a trading bloc, and was largely successful. But the nature of the beast was to try control the member states, and so they introduced the Euro, knowing it was doomed to fail, but intending that eventually it would require a more centralised form of EU government to run its members. Liberties were taken, freedoms lost, the unelected were dictating terms to people who were used to being free. Democracy died a death, and a terrible socialist bureaucratic tyranny replaced it. Which is a shame and a waste, because it was an opportunity destroyed. An unelected EU president recently told Austria they were lucky they elected the government they did, or else they'd pay a penalty.

Pause and think of the implications of that, for a minute.

I see on facebook and news media the usual nonsense about Brexit being a victory for racists and nazis, which is not only pathetic and foolish, but completely the opposite of the truth. You're right, GSM, there'll be chaos, and nobody can predict with certainty whether or not things will be better or worse, but things were getting out of control already and somebody needed to scream, Stop!

 

[GameSetAndMath]

1. Well, with the victory of "leave" being with such a low margin, I guess lots of people might be angry and upset also.

2. More importantly, it appears that it was received totally differently in different geographic regions. Scotland and London voting for "remain" almost unanimously and rural England voting for "leave". This would lead to lot of unstability than if the vote was kind of uniform all over the place.

3. Now do we expect more countries to opt out of EU one by one or will rest of EU remain united?

4. I agree that unelected people controlling things is a bad idea which you say was happening.

5. Now, do you thing UK will split?

6. In US it is being described as a "Trump moment" of UK? Do people feel that way?

 

[Kieran]

Good post!

1. Well, with the victory of "leave" being with such a low margin, I guess lots of people might be angry and upset also.

To put it mildly. My brother lives in London for twenty years and he was undecided until this week. It's been a bit like that, people unsure, a lot of scraremongering on both sides, a messy Civil War style debate, and then the aftermath leaves people "shocked and excited in equal measure", as my bro put it. Although I think the measure is maybe more like 52%-48%. :snicker

2. More importantly, it appears that it was received totally differently in different geographic regions. Scotland and London voting for "remain" almost unanimously and rural England voting for "leave". This would lead to lot of unstability than if the vote was kind of uniform all over the place.

The vote emphasised traditional fault lines, between working class and middle class in particular. The predominantly working class areas of the north of England, and Wales, voted to leave, and though these would be traditional stalking grounds of the socialist Labour Party, the Labour Party campaigned to Remain.

Basically, the nationalist element in Scotland voted to stay in the EU, and the moneyed element in London did likewise. The stock market took an initial headshot, but has begun recovering. The Scottish position is complex because as you know, they already held a referendum in 2014 about leaving the UK, but the vote was a narrow victory to remain.

Now they've voted to stay in the EU, whereas the Brexit vote was really about independence. It's kinda tangled up a bit there.

Rural England and older people generally voted to leave. They've been dismissed in some quarters as Little Englanders, but this maybe unfair, because they're also the traditional heartland.

Northern Ireland voted predominantly to Remain, so that also has to be analysed. I'm not sure yet what it means, because as you know, there was trouble there for decades between Nationalists who wish to join us in the South, and Loyalists, who remain faithful to the Crown (the Crown, it appears, wanted Brexit).

3. Now do we expect more countries to opt out of EU one by one or will rest of EU remain united?

Already the malcontents in France and Holland and Denmark and Italy are lining up. It's suddenly a debate that has to happen. Has the EU overstepped the mark? Has it failed? Should it reform? And is it acting in its members best interests?

Ireland has close historic ties with Britain, and a huge amount of trade there, so we should at least begin the process of discussing this, and my own conviction is that we should also hold a referendum. It's time for the EU to become introspective and analyse itself.

4. I agree that unelected people controlling things is a bad idea which you say was happening.

There are unelected leaders in the EU who make more money than the British PM. The main argument was about sovereignty. Should the EU have power over British borders? Should they have control over British lawmaking?

5. Now, do you thing UK will split?

The Brexit will take years. Firstly (and in my opinion, unfortunately) Cameron will resign in October, then the next PM will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which begins the two-year countdown to full exit. There are suggestions that there'll be a flurry of negotiations and renegotiations before they even trigger Article 50. So the actual Brexit might not occur until 2019, at the earliest.

In the meantime, they'll work very hard to ensure the UK doesn't collapse. Northern ireland is still majority Loyalist, and Wales voted to Leave, so the big sticking point is Scotland. Apparently, however, we would be hasty is seeing the Scottish vote in the referendum as being indicative of Scottish rebelliousness with regards to staying in the UK. in other words,the Scottish Nationalists might lose another referendum, regardless of this one.

I'm not sure of the process for triggering another Scottish referendum. Itwould seem unlikely that it could happen soon. The people up there have already voted to remain part of the UK.

6. In US it is being described as a "Trump moment" of UK? Do people feel that way?

I think the rhetoric is getting out of hand. Looking at some American media talk, they're mentioning racism, the Nazis, the usual stuff. It's probably a "Trump Moment" in this way: that it's a sign that voters are sick and tired of the Establishment. To me, the rise of Trump (and Bernie) is a symptom of something that's not working properly and people are angry. Similarly in this referendum, you had a huge turnout and the people voted against the PM, and the leader of the opposition, one of whom has resigned, effective in October, and the other (Jeremy Corbyn) faces a no-confidence vote in his own party. So the leaders were somewhat out of touch with the way people feel. In this sense, maybe Brexit can be compared with the rise of both Trump and Bernie in America.

But in terms of Trump's outrageousness, and his building walls and so forth, the Brexit concern with immigration was more about the feeling that Britain should control its own borders - which is reasonable. Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, and the other leaders of the Brexit campaign, are in favour of immigration, but that isn't reported so much.

This is my view of it, and it's caused a huge seismic tremor over here. But as you can tell from the vote, other people would hold opinions that are completely at odds with mine...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

A fragemented EU would surely make USA much stronger at least economically and at least in relative terms.

Now, if you couple a stronger USA with a demagogue like Trump as president, it might as well spell a doom to the whole world.

 

[Kieran]

A fragemented EU would surely make USA much stronger at least economically and at least in relative terms.

Now, if you couple a stronger USA with a demagogue like Trump as president, it might as well spell a doom to the whole world.

It's been decades since the USA had a decent president. I don't know what effect a fragmented EU would have on them. Remember, Brexit won't kick in until 2019 at the earliest. And Britain is still the fifth strongest economy in the world. The change - eventually - may still resemble a lot of what we have. For the EU to fragment, other nations need to first call a referendum, have the referendum, then vote to leave, then trigger Article 50, which then signals a 24 month countdown.

Trump (in the slim chance he's elected) will be ex-prez by then. I would be equally scared by a Clinton presidency. Either way, the USA needs to watch itself, regardless of what the EU does. Can you imagine, Obama recommended to Britain that they should live under conditions that no American could accept? This is the depth of desperation. The so-called "democracy" nations are receiving a lesson from their citizens: democracy is only noble if you can listen to the people...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I heard that there is lot of "buyer's remorse" from voters who voted to "leave". Apparently, many of them are saying, "we only wanted to teach the elite a lesson, but did not quite want to leave". Is that true?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

What happens now? Who will be the new PM? Another person from the same party or a person from a different party? or will there be election again after dissolving the parliament?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

"Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, and the other leaders of the Brexit campaign, are in favour of immigration, but that isn't reported so much"

They may be OK. But, what about this Nigel Farage character? He is Trumpish in nature right?

 

[Kieran]

I heard that there is lot of "buyer's remorse" from voters who voted to "leave". Apparently, many of them are saying, "we only wanted to teach the elite a lesson, but did not quite want to leave". Is that true?

It's possible, and quite natural, but like the markets, this will settle down once they get used to the idea. Bear in mind, "the elite" wouldn't learn. The EU's default setting is quite similar to that of an octopus in a small rowing boat. It puts its tentacles everywhere and they're nearly impossible to pry off. I've heard from people who voted Brexit that once Cameron failed to negotiate a decent settlement in February then they felt compelled to vote Leave, because they felt the EU backlash against Britain if they remained would be terrible.

What happens now? Who will be the new PM? Another person from the same party or a person from a different party? or will there be election again after dissolving the parliament?

It'll be a member of the Conservative Party, the same party, and the favourite is Boris Johnson. David Cameron's thinking being that Britain needs a leader from the Brexit wing to negotiate the departure from Europe. The conservatives hold an overall majority in parliament and are mandated to serve until 2020, so there's no need for an election.

"Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, and the other leaders of the Brexit campaign, are in favour of immigration, but that isn't reported so much"

They may be OK. But, what about this Nigel Farage character? He is Trumpish in nature right?

Farage isn't a member of parliament. He's a fringe character who lost his seat at the last election, in 2015. He's loud, but he's not a factor in British politics. His party thought that last year they'd make huge gains in parliament and they were decimated. They have a single seat. And bear in mind, that election was fought largely in the face of the coming referendum.

Nor was Farage a member of the official Leave campaign.

Whether he's "Trumpish in character" or not, he's certainly never going to have the influence Trump has. I think Farage has been portrayed as being some sort of throwback Brownshirt nazi, but he isn't. It's been very interesting for me reading American media reports on Brexit and how quickly they mention Farage, who was utterly marginalised in politics last year, and was an unhelpful distraction in the referendum, totally ignored by the official Leave campaign. And yet, assessing the Labour Party leader in the same way should be more pertinent: the leader of the opposition is a Marxist anti-Semite friend to Islamo-fascists and murderers, and he campaigned for Remain!

Farage is insignificant compared to the direction the Labour Party took in electing Corbyn.

The main campaigners for both Brexit and Remain were a mix of left and right wings, but on both sides. It was really extraordinary because you had Labour and Conservative MPs campaigning side by side against their own colleagues...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I understand that there was no need for Cameron to even have this referendum as it is not sponsored by some kind of grassroots movements to have a referendum on this. Cameron thought he can quieten the other people within his own party if he wins the referendum and it backfired.

Anyway, more interesting story that I hear today is that apparently there is a grass roots movement now and many people have signed a petition to have the "same referendum" again. They cite various reasons such as 1) low margin of victory 2) low voter turnout and 3) many simply wanted to send a message to elites but not really wanted to get out and so on. Apparently 2.1 million brits have signed such a petition. Will there be another referendum on the same issue? If so, and if remain wins, will Cameron take back his resignation?

This is getting weird. Why can't folks think before they vote?

 

[Kieran]

I understand that there was no need for Cameron to even have this referendum as it is not sponsored by some kind of grassroots movements to have a referendum on this. Cameron thought he can quieten the other people within his own party if he wins the referendum and it backfired.

Anyway, more interesting story that I hear today is that apparently there is a grass roots movement now and many people have signed a petition to have the "same referendum" again. They cite various reasons such as 1) low margin of victory 2) low voter turnout and 3) many simply wanted to send a message to elites but not really wanted to get out and so on. Apparently 2.1 million brits have signed such a petition. Will there be another referendum on the same issue? If so, and if remain wins, will Cameron take back his resignation?

This is getting weird. Why can't folks think before they vote?

Folks thought long and hard before they voted, and they voted to leave.

The petition is silly. Firstly, it's most likely being signed by people who voted Remain and who haven't respected the democratic process. It might also have been signed by cranks, mischief makers, spoofers, French people, etc. Online petitions are irrelevant, phenomenal though they might be.

There was a large turn out at the polls, the largest in over 20 years. And the rules of the game were: first past the post. The referendum is over and it won't be held again.

Cameron underestimated the people, but if you want a real villain in all this, then blame the EU. They knew the referendum would be divisive and gave Cameron little or nothing in the way of concessions when he went to renegotiate in February. So the EU basically told them, My way or the highway!

Another news item is that Junker, the unelected dictator from Luxembourg, has ordered Britain to trigger article 50 immediately and leave ASAP. Can you see from this why the Brits voted to leave? The decision on when to trigger Article 50 is the British governments alone and not the EU's, but even now the EU are trying to bully and dictate to them. The Brits will most likely trigger Article 50 sometime very late this year, or early next...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Now Labor Party leader in trouble, Folks want him out too.

 

[Kieran]

Now Labor Party leader in trouble, Folks want him out too.

Substantial blame for the defeat of the Remain vote lies with Corbyn. he refused to share a podium with Cameron, or to campaign with Tories (why? Who knows? Smacks of playing petty party politics on such a big issue) and he made zero impact or newsworthy contributions to the debate. He was basically anonymous, subdued, and way out of his depth, which has been his signature since he won the leadership. When the markets crashed on friday morning, his own advisers went looking for him at 6.30am and he was nowhere to be found.

The Leader of the Opposition went AWOL.

He has a huge Marxist background, anti-semitic tendencies, Islamo-fascist and hate-preacher friends, and he has made common cause with terrorists (the IRA). This is a bloke who is a throwback to the least appealing side of the Labour Party, and he's an example of the toxic form of Marxism. But his main problem has been that he's completely unsuited to leadership, unable to debate coherently, and is better suited to maybe constituency work.

To put it kindly.

But...removing him might not be straight-forward. He wasn't elected by the Labour Party parliamentary party, but by the trade unions too, whose members have a vote in Labour party leadership elections, once they've registered as Labour Party members. So it's a huge amount of people voting in this process, which may or may not be a good idea, but certainly means that the resignation of 7 members of his cabinet is small-fry when it comes to the big picture of who'll actually decide if he loses this vote of no confidence. He will most likely lose a vote of no confidence by the parliamentary party, but can re-enter the race at grassroots level and stay on as leader.

I might be open to correction on this, but I don't think so...

 

[Tennisman12345]

I heard that there is lot of "buyer's remorse" from voters who voted to "leave". Apparently, many of them are saying, "we only wanted to teach the elite a lesson, but did not quite want to leave". Is that true?

I voted leave and have no buyers remorse. I think some people wonder if they did the right thing voting out because of the media and how they described it as a catastrophe etc trying to play mind games with people who voted out. For me the best bit was Cameron resigning it really felt like a personal victory !

 

[Kieran]

Plus as well, I suspect there were a lot of people who really wanted to vote Leave but were scared into voting remain. The only safe thing we know is the poll result, but other than this, guessing that some people might have buyers remorse, and others voted differently to how they feel out of fear, is just media bias, or speculation.

I have been a little concerned about how much negative reporting there is about this result. I've seen the people who voted Leave variously described as nazis, racists, idiots who don't know what they're doing, old folks who are holding back the youth, and various other assaults on the democratic process, including threats of legal action to circumvent the people's wishes, online petitions (now thoroughly discredited), and other ways of denying a basic and important truth: a vote was given to the people, they've chosen, and it's up to everyone to accept the result. Otherwise, democracy itself is under threat (which it already is, from the EU itself).

I admired Merkel's reaction, which was respectful and suggested that she believes the landing not only will be softer than expected, but must be good for everybody, through cooperation and further partnership between Britain and the EU, albeit differently...

 

[Kieran]

Tennisman12345, who will be the next PM?

And who do you want to be the next PM?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Hard to think of it as not being anti-immigration.

 

[Kieran]

You get racists everywhere, but the argument was more about controlled immigration into Britain, and who should control it: Britain, or the EU?

Who do you think should control immigration into Britain?

And who do you think was controlling it?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I certainly think each country should be allowed to control their immigration policies. To be honest, I don't fully know the details of what EU controls once you become its member.