Is Rafa in Decline?

[Kirijax]

uzzled

Have you ever seen Stan play Rafa on clay?

Better shot does not mean good shot. The implication was that Rafa would be so bad milos or Ernie could win. Given that assumed level of play, I like stan's chances better.

Rafa is a nightmare matchup for Stan. He will get bullied all over the court.

I've seen matches of Gulbis where he clearly showed to be able to dominate Rafa on clay. Stan does not even come close.

Milos has his serve. 3 tiebreaks is all it takes. Isner was close a couple of years ago.

Funny you say that. I bet Nadal wakes up screaming sometimes after dreaming about the '14 AO final again. :laydownlaughing

 

[El Dude]

I only need to wait until RG. Come on if Rafa does not win RG, he is not going to win
anything important the rest of this year.

I don't know, I can imagine this scenario: Rafa loses at Roland Garros, has a career crisis, and then comes storming back, winning Wimbledon AND the US Open. I know, it is unlikely, but we've seen him use hardship to fuel a monster run before.

I suppose this situation is different in that usually his "fuelled monster run" has already started by this point. Maybe that's the difference when you get into your late 20s, and as many have said Rafa's "apparent age" is more a couple years older.

On a side note, your signature continues to confuse me - I always think it is part of your post.

 

[Federberg]

I only need to wait until RG. Come on if Rafa does not win RG, he is not going to win
anything important the rest of this year.

I don't know, I can imagine this scenario: Rafa loses at Roland Garros, has a career crisis, and then comes storming back, winning Wimbledon AND the US Open. I know, it is unlikely, but we've seen him use hardship to fuel a monster run before.

I suppose this situation is different in that usually his "fuelled monster run" has already started by this point. Maybe that's the difference when you get into your late 20s, and as many have said Rafa's "apparent age" is more a couple years older.

On a side note, your signature continues to confuse me - I always think it is part of your post.

I agree with this. That's why I'm withholding judgement until after the US Open. It's a big mistake to underestimate a champion of Rafa's calibre

 

[Denis]

Better shot does not mean good shot. The implication was that Rafa would be so bad milos or Ernie could win. Given that assumed level of play, I like stan's chances better.

Rafa is a nightmare matchup for Stan. He will get bullied all over the court.

I've seen matches of Gulbis where he clearly showed to be able to dominate Rafa on clay. Stan does not even come close.

Milos has his serve. 3 tiebreaks is all it takes. Isner was close a couple of years ago.

Funny you say that. I bet Nadal wakes up screaming sometimes after dreaming about the '14 AO final again. :laydownlaughing

The discussion was on clay, not hards. I give Stan more chance there (on hards), although paradoxically clay is his better surfarce.

 

[Denis]

I only need to wait until RG. Come on if Rafa does not win RG, he is not going to win
anything important the rest of this year.

I don't know, I can imagine this scenario: Rafa loses at Roland Garros, has a career crisis, and then comes storming back, winning Wimbledon AND the US Open. I know, it is unlikely, but we've seen him use hardship to fuel a monster run before.

I suppose this situation is different in that usually his "fuelled monster run" has already started by this point. Maybe that's the difference when you get into your late 20s, and as many have said Rafa's "apparent age" is more a couple years older.

On a side note, your signature continues to confuse me - I always think it is part of your post.

I agree with this. That's why I'm withholding judgement until after the US Open. It's a big mistake to underestimate a champion of Rafa's calibre

Well said.

I'll be assessing the situation after RG though.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rafa puts so much emphasis on the clay season and the RG that doing so poorly in that
part of the year will basically spell doom for him. It will destroy his confidence completely.

We only have 2009 to go by to see what happens to Rafa after an RG defeat. In that year he
withdrew from Wimby and made a comeback in Canada to lose to JMDP in QF. Then he lost
to JMDP again at USO in SF. Then he lost all three RR matches in WTF and that too all in straight sets.
Finally, he showed semblance of life when we won two matches (one of them is a dead rubber)
in the DC finals.

Rafa may or may not win RG. But, if he does not win RG, he for sure will not win anything
Big (ATP 1000 or GS or WTF) this year.

Having said that, I am not writing off Rafa for good. I am writing off Rafa for this year,
if he does not manage to win.

 

[Moxie]

Question is, who will be the lucky guy detroning Rafa in RG and entering tenis history.

If it's a mental thing (the Rafa decline thesis), I don't think he will suffer from it at RG. He will remember himself there.

That said there are around 5 guys I can see pulling it off if Rafa continues struggling. In order of likelyhood:

- Djokovic
- Nishikori (based on Madrid last year)
- Federer (wouldn't that be ironic)
- Milos
- Gulbis on an extremely good day (yeah not likely, considering where he is heading)

Maybe Murray, but that would require a near complete collapse of Rafa. Def not Stan, Ferrer or Almagro. Maybe one of those other spaniards or Mayer or Cuevas.

^I think both Ferrer and Verdasco stand a chance too

^I think both Ferrer and Verdasco stand a chance too

I would put Stan above Milos or Gulbis. The guy has a clay masters and a slam for crying out loud. Nobody is likely, but on a good day, he has a better shot than those two guys.

I would put Stan above Milos or Gulbis. The guy has a clay masters and a slam for crying out loud. Nobody is likely, but on a good day, he has a better shot than those two guys.

uzzled

Have you ever seen Stan play Rafa on clay?

Better shot does not mean good shot. The implication was that Rafa would be so bad milos or Ernie could win. Given that assumed level of play, I like stan's chances better.




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Rafa is a nightmare matchup for Stan. He will get bullied all over the court.

I've seen matches of Gulbis where he clearly showed to be able to dominate Rafa on clay. Stan does not even come close.

Milos has his serve. 3 tiebreaks is all it takes. Isner was close a couple of years ago.

Funny you say that. I bet Nadal wakes up screaming sometimes after dreaming about the '14 AO final again. :laydownlaughing

The discussion was on clay, not hards. I give Stan more chance there (on hards), although paradoxically clay is his better surfarce.

I quoted all of the above to join the thoughts on who might win RG if Rafa does not. Denisovich posited some possibilities. I think some of the options after were rather more about who might take Rafa out, not who might win the French, out-right. The other elephant in that room is Djokovic. Most of those others *might* spoil Rafa, but what are the chances that somebody takes Novak out before the final, as well? Pretty slim. If Rafa goes out before the final, I'd say Federer or Nishikori are the only ones with a shot if they meet Novak in the final, and that depends on the draw, in the case of Kei. Wawrinka, maybe, but a very long shot. Ferrer would have to see Rafa, Nole and Roger out. Milos would also need a huge attrition before he got to a final, and Gulbis hasn't a prayer.

 

[Moxie]

Rafa puts so much emphasis on the clay season and the RG that doing so poorly in that
part of the year will basically spell doom for him. It will destroy his confidence completely.

We only have 2009 to go by to see what happens to Rafa after an RG defeat. In that year he
withdrew from Wimby and made a comeback in Canada to lose to JMDP in QF. Then he lost
to JMDP again at USO in SF. Then he lost all three RR matches in WTF and that too all in straight sets.
Finally, he showed semblance of life when we won two matches (one of them is a dead rubber)
in the DC finals.

Rafa may or may not win RG. But, if he does not win RG, he for sure will not win anything
Big (ATP 1000 or GS or WTF) this year.

Having said that, I am not writing off Rafa for good. I am writing off Rafa for this year,
if he does not manage to win.

I don't know why you, as opposed to anyone else, have the bead on Rafa's patterns, which have been pretty unpredictable in the last few years. As a fan, I agree that a miserable clay season will feel like a harbinger of doom. However, Nadal has pulled off loads of things that no one would have predicted, although none of them happened in the last year.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

wouldn't it be a laugh if in the event of rafa not winning French open that djokovic 'forgets' to win it also.

..oh how we would snort n guffaw n chortle. that would be like in 2008 if Federer wasn't winning Wimbledon that nadal 'forgot' to win as well.

 

[Moxie]

wouldn't it be a laugh if in the event of rafa not winning French open that djokovic 'forgets' to win it also.

..oh how we would snort n guffaw n chortle. that would be like in 2008 if Federer wasn't winning Wimbledon that nadal 'forgot' to win as well.

Or if Federer 'forgot' to win RG in 2009 when Rafa didn't.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

wouldn't it be a laugh if in the event of rafa not winning French open that djokovic 'forgets' to win it also.

..oh how we would snort n guffaw n chortle. that would be like in 2008 if Federer wasn't winning Wimbledon that nadal 'forgot' to win as well.

Or if Federer 'forgot' to win RG in 2009 when Rafa didn't.

yes.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I think Rafa will win two of the four clay warm-up events giving his fans some hope and leading posters like "Autopilot" and/or "Nadal2005RG" to say "look, he is already playing better than
last year and therefore is sure to win RG again", before losing in RG.

Also, Rafa will probably never face Novak during the warm-up tourneys. He will win Barcelona (where Novak is not playing) and one other tourney where Novak is upset early.

Not playing Novak will give rise to a lot of uncertainty for Rafa as he would not know where his game stands up with respect to the elite on clay.

 

[Federberg]

^I think you're assuming a lot there. For him not to face Novak implies that one or both doesn't make the semis or finals? Hard to believe. If we don't have one or both of those guys in each of MC and Rome semis/ finals I'll be amazed..

 

[MartyB]

I would think that rankings & draws in which they will both be in the same tournaments will have a lot to say about them meeting up on the clay.

 

[Riotbeard]

^I think you're assuming a lot there. For him not to face Novak implies that one or both doesn't make the semis or finals? Hard to believe. If we don't have one or both of those guys in each of MC and Rome semis/ finals I'll be amazed..

To be fair, he's not assuming, he's making a prediction. It could be wrong, but all predictions create outcomes that are not guaranteed. It's been a long time since Rafa and Novak not met at least once during the clay court swing, so to me, it's a bit of a stretch too.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

^I think you're assuming a lot there. For him not to face Novak implies that one or both doesn't make the semis or finals? Hard to believe. If we don't have one or both of those guys in each of MC and Rome semis/ finals I'll be amazed..

It is not as difficult as you think. They are playing together only in 3 toruneys MC, Madrid and Rome. It is conceivable that Novak loses early in one, Rafa loses early in other and both lose
early in the third one.....

 

[herios]

It is not as difficult as you think. They are playing together only in 3 toruneys MC, Madrid and Rome. It is conceivable that Novak loses early in one, Rafa loses early in other and both lose
early in the third one.....

Well, I don't like this scenario. How about Rafa loses early in all 3 and does not get to Nole
:devil

 

[Federberg]

http://www.tennisworldusa.org/Toni-Nadal-This-is-the-first-time-Rafael-has-had-a-problem-of-this-type-articolo23166.html

 

[Kieran]

I thought we had a law around here, that nobody gets panicked over Rafa until I've arrived in person and said, stick a fork in him, si?

Rafa's going through a troubling and worrying cycle of breakage and recovery over the last four seasons, and every time he tries to reassemble himself to play top class tennis, it's taking longer to figger where all the bits go. Despite silly rumours to the contrary he's never returned quickly from injury and shot back to the top. This is just nasty propaganda. In 2009, he was so slow locating his banjo, it took him until clay in 2010 before he a) won a tourney, and b) beat a top tenner.

In 2013 he was similarly slow, so slow in fact that he was actually ready to return to training in 2012 but pulled the plug on a date in Oz.

Last season he had new and varied things happen, and this year he's been similarly slow to come back, but this doesn't mean he won't be back. He's obviously older, slower, not so sure, losing to bums and half-bums, but the game is also weak, to the extent that although Nole rules, he doesn't do so with the swagger and intensity he had in 2011. Hell, he's even lost two of his hast three to a 33 year old. :cover

Rafa will be back, don't worry about that. He's putting in the yards and he's heading to clay. It won't happen immediately but incrementally, he'll show. And when he does, who knows how long it'll take before he's all the way back? :clap

 

[El Dude]

Kieran's back! Missed you, buddy.