Is Rafa in Decline?

[Mile]

Question is, who will be the lucky guy detroning Rafa in RG and entering tenis history.

 

[shawnbm]

Nobody is going to believe this, but my son (he just turned eleven and has sat at my side for the last three or four years watching big matches) said that he thinks fate will work for Roger Federer (of all people--that is my take, not his) and he will finally beat Rafa for once at the "Eiffel Tower tournament". He says it is not fair that Rafa wins that one all the time and that Roger loses to Nadal there all the time. He says he doesn't like Novak because he is all "stretchy" on the court and makes faces at the crowd. So, that is his pick. My pick--neither Roger nor Nole, but someone we don't see coming like Robin--wait for it--from SIX YEARS AGO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[mrzz]

You gotta give the guy credit for his honesty on the interview posted on another thread. Did someone also noticed that he mentioned "losing focus for four games"? I know there's a good chance that this is just a random number, but the coincidence is interesting anyway.

 

[Federberg]

^I think this is a similar issue that Roger seemed to face. Unaccountably losing focus at random times in a match. Bodo called it champions fatigue. Who knows? Too early to say with Rafa, could just simply be loss of confidence that more matches will fix. But not surprisingly the jury will be out now

 

[herios]

^I think this is a similar issue that Roger seemed to face. Unaccountably losing focus at random times in a match. Bodo called it champions fatigue. Who knows? Too early to say with Rafa, could just simply be loss of confidence that more matches will fix. But not surprisingly the jury will be out now

It is not too early for Rafa. Although much younger, he is in match play probably 2 years ahead of Roger in age. Remember, he turned pro at 14y age.
At one point, they start to be inconsistent, not just one match to the other, but also within a match from one game to the other. It is the mental fatigue, as well is pointed out in that article.

 

[Federberg]

^Yes but we have to wait for the results. There is nothing conclusive yet. This reminds me of people spending all their time trying to anticipate Federer's retirement when time would be better spent enjoying the show

 

[El Dude]

Rafa is the same age Roger was in mid-2010 - which is also the time that Roger's Slam results went down. I suspect that Rafa won't be able to maintain a late career plateau like Roger, though. He'll be more up and down.

He's also clearly had the worst start of a season in years, a decade really. So yeah, Rafa is clearly in decline. This is how it happens. But that doesn't mean he's done or won't win more Slams. The question is how many, though - and it is looking more and more like he doesn't have as many left as it seemed about a year ago. After 2014 Roland Garros it looked like he had a legit shot at 20, or at least surpassing Roger was a foregone conclusion. I'm not so sure now.

 

[herios]

^Yes but we have to wait for the results. There is nothing conclusive yet. This reminds me of people spending all their time trying to anticipate Federer's retirement when time would be better spent enjoying the show

Probably the Rafa show will be similar to Roger's. Several good results will be happening still, but with very limited slams addition to his total.

 

[Great Hands]

Do people think Rafa is the favourite for RG this year? I do. I know he ain't looked good, but I thought nOvak was teh favoruite for rg in both 2013 and 2014, and rafa won both times. so i have learnt my lesson. as far as i'm concerned, rafa is the favourite for rg, no matter what his form going in, unless and until he loses there.

 

[Federberg]

Rafa is the same age Roger was in mid-2010 - which is also the time that Roger's Slam results went down. I suspect that Rafa won't be able to maintain a late career plateau like Roger, though. He'll be more up and down.

He's also clearly had the worst start of a season in years, a decade really. So yeah, Rafa is clearly in decline. This is how it happens. But that doesn't mean he's done or won't win more Slams. The question is how many, though - and it is looking more and more like he doesn't have as many left as it seemed about a year ago. After 2014 Roland Garros it looked like he had a legit shot at 20, or at least surpassing Roger was a foregone conclusion. I'm not so sure now.

It's amazing isn't it? Expectations can just fall off a cliff. I still maintain it's a bit too early to confirm decline, but like everyone else I've been shocked by his win/loss ratio since he won RG. There's still a chance (albeit declining one) that he can get back on track. For me I need to see how this year plays out. At least until after the US Open..

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rafa is the same age Roger was in mid-2010 - which is also the time that Roger's Slam results went down. I suspect that Rafa won't be able to maintain a late career plateau like Roger, though. He'll be more up and down.

He's also clearly had the worst start of a season in years, a decade really. So yeah, Rafa is clearly in decline. This is how it happens. But that doesn't mean he's done or won't win more Slams. The question is how many, though - and it is looking more and more like he doesn't have as many left as it seemed about a year ago. After 2014 Roland Garros it looked like he had a legit shot at 20, or at least surpassing Roger was a foregone conclusion. I'm not so sure now.

It's amazing isn't it? Expectations can just fall off a cliff. I still maintain it's a bit too early to confirm decline, but like everyone else I've been shocked by his win/loss ratio since he won RG. There's still a chance (albeit declining one) that he can get back on track. For me I need to see how this year plays out. At least until after the US Open..

I only need to wait until RG. Come on if Rafa does not win RG, he is not going to win
anything important the rest of this year.

 

[Federberg]

^You're probably right, but how often do these all time greats turn the tables on our assumptions. If he doesn't win a slam this year then that's 6 slams since he won one. That is a relevant sample in my book. But clearly his odds of winning will drop drastically if he doesn't get RG, not least because of confidence issues... or dare I say it.. any injury that may have caused his not winning RG uzzled

 

[Denis]

Question is, who will be the lucky guy detroning Rafa in RG and entering tenis history.

If it's a mental thing (the Rafa decline thesis), I don't think he will suffer from it at RG. He will remember himself there.

That said there are around 5 guys I can see pulling it off if Rafa continues struggling. In order of likelyhood:

- Djokovic
- Nishikori (based on Madrid last year)
- Federer (wouldn't that be ironic)
- Milos
- Gulbis on an extremely good day (yeah not likely, considering where he is heading)

Maybe Murray, but that would require a near complete collapse of Rafa. Def not Stan, Ferrer or Almagro. Maybe one of those other spaniards or Mayer or Cuevas.

 

[Federberg]

^I think both Ferrer and Verdasco stand a chance too

 

[Riotbeard]

^I think both Ferrer and Verdasco stand a chance too

I would put Stan above Milos or Gulbis. The guy has a clay masters and a slam for crying out loud. Nobody is likely, but on a good day, he has a better shot than those two guys.

 

[Denis]

^I think both Ferrer and Verdasco stand a chance too

I would put Stan above Milos or Gulbis. The guy has a clay masters and a slam for crying out loud. Nobody is likely, but on a good day, he has a better shot than those two guys.

uzzled

Have you ever seen Stan play Rafa on clay?

 

[Riotbeard]

^I think both Ferrer and Verdasco stand a chance too

I would put Stan above Milos or Gulbis. The guy has a clay masters and a slam for crying out loud. Nobody is likely, but on a good day, he has a better shot than those two guys.

uzzled

Have you ever seen Stan play Rafa on clay?

Better shot does not mean good shot. The implication was that Rafa would be so bad milos or Ernie could win. Given that assumed level of play, I like stan's chances better.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Kirijax]

^I think both Ferrer and Verdasco stand a chance too

I would put Stan above Milos or Gulbis. The guy has a clay masters and a slam for crying out loud. Nobody is likely, but on a good day, he has a better shot than those two guys.

uzzled

Have you ever seen Stan play Rafa on clay?

Has anyone seen Stan play this month?

Me neither. :-/

 

[Mile]

^I think both Ferrer and Verdasco stand a chance too

Agree. Nadal got doomed with those in line defeats. They smell blood now, gonna go for it like wolfpack. The hunt.

 

[Denis]

I would put Stan above Milos or Gulbis. The guy has a clay masters and a slam for crying out loud. Nobody is likely, but on a good day, he has a better shot than those two guys.

uzzled

Have you ever seen Stan play Rafa on clay?

Better shot does not mean good shot. The implication was that Rafa would be so bad milos or Ernie could win. Given that assumed level of play, I like stan's chances better.

Rafa is a nightmare matchup for Stan. He will get bullied all over the court.

I've seen matches of Gulbis where he clearly showed to be able to dominate Rafa on clay. Stan does not even come close.

Milos has his serve. 3 tiebreaks is all it takes. Isner was close a couple of years ago.