Generational Shifts (Past and Present - with pretty charts!)

[El Dude]

In this thread I'm going to share a series of charts that depicts generational changes, both historically and in recent years. With the year-end rankings set, I updated several charts.

To begin, here's one that depicts the shifting of generations via rankings over the last 25 years or so. I'll elaborate on this in later posts.

This chart spans the entire career of Roger Federer, from his first ATP appearance in 1998 to retiring in 2022 (though not playing). The chart is mostly self-explanatory, but notice the color-coding of the year line near the top: those are the year spans in which the middle year of a generation was 21-25; that is, when they should be dominating the tour, or at least starting to.

It is also interesting to note the "straggler effect" - when a player or two of a given generation hangs on past the rest of his cohort. For instance, in 2009-13 you see the last two of the "Wild West" generation, Tommy Haas and Radek Stepanek, hanging on, both born the last year of that gen (1978). And of course Roger, the lone member of his generation still ranked in the top 50 in 2021-22. Or you can see Andre Agassi remaining in the top 10 as late as 2005, four years past Sampras. And so forth.

But of particular recent relevance, take a look at Lost Gen: a slow rise, and not until the years that they should already be peaking - and then a later and lower peak in the 2014-20 range, with a steep decline, especially in 2022. Consider that 2022 is to Lost Gen what 2017 was to the Novak-Nadal gen. Furthermore, Lost Gen was the first and only generation since Arthur Ashe's (born 1939-43) to not have a year-end #1 or #2.

Lots of other things to note. More charts to come.

 

[El Dude]

Alright, another chart. This isn't specific to generations, but looks at the same span in terms of ages. The colors are the age a player was (or will be) at the end of the year. It is coded so that a "young" player (age 17-23) is in shades of green, players in typical prime years (age 24-29) are in white-grey, and older players (age 30+) are in shades of pink to purple.

The most striking thing is the dominance of green (younger players early on, shifting to pink later. A strong visual illustration of what we all know: That older generations have dominated the tour deep into their dotage, and younger generations (especially Lost Gen) were comparatively weak.

What is still unclear is how much of this is due to the greatness of the Big Three relative to the weakness of Lost Gen, or if players are just lasting longer - or a combination of both.

The recent rise of the Millenials seems to imply that "Older Peak Theory" isn't as strong as it was a few years ago. Alcaraz and Rune, in particular, are reaching elite level at ages commensurate with older generations. Meaning, it is seeming more the case that the two generations that should be dominating the tour--Lost and Next Gen--are both just historically weak, especially Lost Gen. Next Gen seems to be more of a garden variety weaker generation, ala the "Wild West" generation born in the latter half of the 70s, who peaked around the turn of the century.

 

[Moxie]

In this thread I'm going to share a series of charts that depicts generational changes, both historically and in recent years. With the year-end rankings set, I updated several charts.

To begin, here's one that depicts the shifting of generations via rankings over the last 25 years or so. I'll elaborate on this in later posts.

View attachment 7347

This chart spans the entire career of Roger Federer, from his first ATP appearance in 1998 to retiring in 2022 (though not playing). The chart is mostly self-explanatory, but notice the color-coding of the year line near the top: those are the year spans in which the middle year of a generation was 21-25; that is, when they should be dominating the tour, or at least starting to.

It is also interesting to note the "straggler effect" - when a player or two of a given generation hangs on past the rest of his cohort. For instance, in 2009-13 you see the last two of the "Wild West" generation, Tommy Haas and Radek Stepanek, hanging on, both born the last year of that gen (1978). And of course Roger, the lone member of his generation still ranked in the top 50 in 2021-22. Or you can see Andre Agassi remaining in the top 10 as late as 2005, four years past Sampras. And so forth.

But of particular recent relevance, take a look at Lost Gen: a slow rise, and not until the years that they should already be peaking - and then a later and lower peak in the 2014-20 range, with a steep decline, especially in 2022. Consider that 2022 is to Lost Gen what 2017 was to the Novak-Nadal gen. Furthermore, Lost Gen was the first and only generation since Arthur Ashe's (born 1939-43) to not have a year-end #1 or #2.

Lots of other things to note. More charts to come.

It is very pretty, but I don't understand it. If the x-axis is years, and the y is rankings, why are Roger's and Novak's and Rafa's colors down at the bottom AND at the top? EDIT: Sorry, I realized you meant those as eras, not individuals.