European Open 2017, Antwerp, Belgium, ATP 250

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DATE: OCTOBER 16 - 22 2017
SURFACE: Hard
PRIZE MONEY: €589,185
FIELD SIZE: 28
DEFENDING CHAMPION: Richard Gasquet

Seeds:

1 GOFFIN, David
2 TSONGA, Jo-Wilfried
3 KYRGIOS, Nick
4 SCHWARTZMAN, Diego
5 FERRER, David
6 CUEVAS, Pablo
7 PAIRE, Benoit
8 DOLGOPOLOV, Alexandr

The Tournament:

The European Open is a fairly new ATP World Tour 250 tournament added to the tour in 2016 where Richard Gasquet won the the inaugral title.

About Antwerp

Antwerp is a port city on Belgium's River Scheldt, with history dating to the Middle Ages. In its center, the centuries-old Diamond District houses thousands of diamond traders, cutters and polishers. Antwerp's Flemish Renaissance architecture is typified by the Grote Markt, a central square in the old town. At the 17th-century Rubens House, period rooms display works by the Flemish Baroque painter Peter Paul Rubens.

Tourism Guide:

 

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The Draw:

 

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Results from the Antwerp Open Men's Singles Round 1 matches on Tuesday

Frances Tiafoe (U.S.) beat Florian Mayer (Germany) 6-3 6-4
Joao Sousa (Portugal) beat 7-Benoit Paire (France) 6-4 6-7(2) 7-5
Henri Laaksonen (Switzerland) beat 8-Alexandr Dolgopolov (Ukraine) 6-2 7-6(5)

Couple of seeds bowing out early, but a good win for young Tiafoe over Mayer.

 

[Fiero425]

The evolution of this tournament continues I see! I remember when this was a huge event this time of the year where if you won the tournament 3 of 5 years, you got a diamond incrusted gold racket! It was sorta like a tournament you needed to qualify by winning an event in Europe! Lendl won European Champions Championship a handful of times and got one racket! McEnroe tried his best to stop Ivan, but it wasn't to be! Becker prevented him from winning a 2nd racket!

 

[mcekovic]

Current forecast: http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/inProgressEventForecast?inProgressEventId=10
Current favorites: http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/inProgressEventForecast?inProgressEventId=10&tab=favorites

1

David Goffin 29.4%
2

Jo Wilfried Tsonga 28.9%
3

David Ferrer 11.7%
4

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman 11.4%

 

[Tennisproguru.com]

Current forecast: http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/inProgressEventForecast?inProgressEventId=10
Current favorites: http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/inProgressEventForecast?inProgressEventId=10&tab=favorites

1

David Goffin 29.4%
2

Jo Wilfried Tsonga 28.9%
3

David Ferrer 11.7%
4

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman 11.4%

How is this prediction calculated? Because basically, it looks like the copy of ATP ranking But I agree that David Goffin is the biggest favorite there, I would give him bigger probability, as the difference between him and Tsonga looks too small for me

 

[mcekovic]

How is this prediction calculated? Because basically, it looks like the copy of ATP ranking But I agree that David Goffin is the biggest favorite there, I would give him bigger probability, as the difference between him and Tsonga looks too small for me

There are links at the bottom of the page with small info on the algorithms used.
On first look It is similar to ATP ranking and ATP ranking is indeed one of the neurons in the network.
But it is actually very different, as main contributor (~50%) to prediction are Elo ratings (overall and by surface), which are very good predictors (Elo system is designed with match outcome probabilities in mind).
Other contributors are current form (again based on Elo, but only indirectly), H2H and winning percentages, varied by surface, tournament level, round, recency, by match/set etc...
Then training of the predictor is done to determine neuron weights (Elo neurons get on top) for maximum predictability on historical results as training set.

 

[britbox]

Results from the Antwerp Open Men's Singles Round 2 matches on Thursday

5-David Ferrer (Spain) beat Steve Darcis (Belgium) 7-5 5-7 6-3
1-David Goffin (Belgium) beat Frances Tiafoe (U.S.) 7-6(1) 6-2
2-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (France) beat Kenny De Schepper (France) 6-4 6-3
4-Diego Schwartzman (Argentina) beat Ernesto Escobedo (U.S.) 6-3 7-6(5)
Stefanos Tsitsipas (Greece) beat Ivo Karlovic (Croatia) 7-6(4) 5-6 (Karlovic retired)

 

[Tennisproguru.com]

There are links at the bottom of the page with small info on the algorithms used.
On first look It is similar to ATP ranking and ATP ranking is indeed one of the neurons in the network.
But it is actually very different, as main contributor (~50%) to prediction are Elo ratings (overall and by surface), which are very good predictors (Elo system is designed with match outcome probabilities in mind).
Other contributors are current form (again based on Elo, but only indirectly), H2H and winning percentages, varied by surface, tournament level, round, recency, by match/set etc...
Then training of the predictor is done to determine neuron weights (Elo neurons get on top) for maximum predictability on historical results as training set.

Thanks. It sounds interesting.

 

[britbox]

Results from the Antwerp Open Men's Singles Quarterfinal matches on Friday

4-Diego Schwartzman (Argentina) beat 5-David Ferrer (Spain) 7-5 6-2
Stefanos Tsitsipas (Greece) beat 1-David Goffin (Belgium) 2-6 7-6(1) 7-6(4)
2-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (France) beat Julien Benneteau (France) 7-6(5) 6-2
Ruben Bemelmans (Belgium) beat Joao Sousa (Portugal) 4-6 7-6(2) 6-4

Semis:

Schwartzman v Tsitsipas
Tsonga v Bemelmans

 

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Results from the Antwerp Open Men's Singles Semifinal matches on Saturday

4-Diego Schwartzman (Argentina) beat Stefanos Tsitsipas (Greece) 6-3 7-5
2-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (France) beat Ruben Bemelmans (Belgium) 6-3 6-3

 

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Result from the Antwerp Open Men's Singles Final on Sunday

2-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (France) beat 4-Diego Schwartzman (Argentina) 6-3 7-5

Fourth title of the year for JWT