Current Lebanon PM Crisis

mrzz

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Midia coverage of what is happening in Lebanon is even more confuse than usual. If I would believe everything I read, Hariri would be a puppet of just about every political leader in the world. So maybe our large and ever growing population of posters based on Lebanon could help clarify a bit what is happening...
 

Federberg

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I think it's becoming quite clear that the Saudi Crown prince is asserting himself both internally and in the region. My guess is that this is part of the external component. Whereas in the past the Saudis were content to counter Iranian influence in the Middle East behind the scenes, he seems to want to confront Iran in a more muscular way. It's difficult to know exactly what to believe, but all the intel I'm getting is that in Lebanon, there's a great deal of scepticism about his allegations. Will be interested to hear @brokenshoelace take on all of this
 

britbox

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I would hazard a guess Trump is involved in some capacity. He had the Iranians in his crosshairs from Day One and was very particular in lauding the Saudis at every opportunity.
 

Federberg

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I would hazard a guess Trump is involved in some capacity. He had the Iranians in his crosshairs from Day One and was very particular in lauding the Saudis at every opportunity.

I think it's a bit more clumsy than that. I would guess that MBS let the Americans know what he's up to, and Trump endorsed it. There is simply no evidence that Trump has ever had the wits or regional knowledge to be an instigator. As things stand, my sense is that the adults in the WH are now forcing the Saudis to step a bit more carefully. I worry that MBS might have bitten off more than he can chew
 

Federberg

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Yeah probably, although I think Trump would be easily manipulated by anti-Iranian sentiment.

oh absolutely. That's my point. We saw it earlier in the year with the Qatar embargo
 

brokenshoelace

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It's a complete farce that set the country back a ton economically. You see, for 2 years, Lebanon couldn't elect a president and the whole country was in political limbo. Then, a little over a year ago, they finally had presidential elections, a new government was formed, and political life finally resumed. Throughout that year, Lebanon knew its most stable period in years. Tourism was back, the economy was somewhat on the rise (it was still bad but that's a major accomplishment in Lebanon), and the government cracked down on any potential terrorist cells.

Then, in a shocking move, the Lebanese PM resigned, and was more or less held hostage by the Saudis (his huge allies and backers. But, in truth, his "masters" if you will). The move was a huge gamble by the Saudi crown prince in a desperate attempt to exercise some pressure on Iran and Hezbollah. Honestly, it's hard to comprehend what a dumb political move that was unless you lived here, because that scheme had no shot in hell of working.

Of course, now the PM is back and has "put his resignation on hold," but not before the company took a huge economic hit. Both my parents are bankers and they both told me it was absolute chaos. The currency took a devastating blow, everyone was transferring their money to Switzerland, it was panic all around.

So as it often is, the company took a step forward only to take 10 steps back.
 

mrzz

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Thanks for the reply, @brokenshoelace . But, let me see if I follow... what exactly the Saudis hoped to accomplish? Replace him with someone else as connected as him, but now in a better political position to deal with Saudi's adversaries? Or that the people would cry for his return and blame it all on Iran and Hezbollah? It is hard to see what actual developments were planned (or expected).

You wrote "the company" a few times... some regional slang? (probably auto-correct).
 

Federberg

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haha! I took "company" to mean "country"

As for MBS (Mohammed bin Salah, the Saudi crown prince), I think in a funny way his larger ambitions could be a long term good, but his way of skinning the cat leaves a lot to be desired. The Saudis have been prosecuting a proxy war against Iran for decades, one of the worst consequences of that has been a move towards wahabi extremism at home. He is now trying to bring Saudi Arabia into the modern age - women being allowed to drive and go to concerts etc - but he is also trying to become more muscular against Iran externally. This will probably bolster his support at home, but could be very disruptive in the larger Middle East. I say his larger ambitions could be a positive because if wahabi extremism is curtailed at home then Saudi Arabia is less likely to be the worlds major exporter of terrorism (which they are currently) in future
 

brokenshoelace

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Haha, yeah, "company" was meant to be "country." Sorry, I carry my work home with me :D
 

brokenshoelace

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Thanks for the reply, @brokenshoelace . But, let me see if I follow... what exactly the Saudis hoped to accomplish? Replace him with someone else as connected as him, but now in a better political position to deal with Saudi's adversaries? Or that the people would cry for his return and blame it all on Iran and Hezbollah? It is hard to see what actual developments were planned (or expected).

You wrote "the company" a few times... some regional slang? (probably auto-correct).

The Saudis did not want to replace him. As I said he's their biggest ally, as was his father. They meant to provide a shake-up that would be a wake-up call for Hezbollah and their ever growing political and military power. You see, there is no doubt that Hezbollah, in many ways, have unfortunately managed to take over the country. They also are riding huge momentum after their "victory" in Syria (their interference in the Syrian war in 2012 helped turn the tide against the rebels), and are completely blocking any potential governmental decision that intervenes with their interest.

This is what makes the Saudis' move so desperate. They resorted to an extreme measure that they hoped would somehow soften Hezbollah's stance if they hoped to reinstall some stability to the country. Their initial demand for Harriri to return was actually for Hezbollah to hand over their weapons (LOL!). Of course, it is now the Saudis who had to soften up their stance when they realized their gamble didn't pay off. It really felt like a boyfriend dumping his cheating girlfriend, and when she didn't give a shit, he returned to her anyway.
 
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