Brexit

britbox

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...and some Remainers are now happy with Leave vote Federberg. Polls have also shown that the country doesn't want a second referendum.

The 18-25 group represent 8 years out of 62+ year voting span.

I'd rather not have student politicians dictating to the country thanks very much... I remember what they were like when I was at Uni and the insane level of youth unemployment on the continent doesn't point too well to the aspirations of the EU aligning with the young either.

Good luck with the "advisory" theme... if they choose not to implement it... after insisting they would execute on the result then all confidence in politicians will be lost forever.
 
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britbox

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Also Federberg, I'm not suggesting the UK gets everything it wants and then some... compromises will need to be made and that's what you get with negotiations... but I guarantee that $100 billion+ of German exports to the UK won't be subject to a 10% tariff in 2 years time... Some might be but mutually beneficial deals will be struck in the interests of both parties.
 

Federberg

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...and some Remainers are now happy with Leave vote Federberg. Polls have also shown that the country doesn't want a second referendum.

The 18-25 group represent 8 years out of 62+ year voting span.

I'd rather not have student politicians dictating to the country thanks very much... I remember what they were like when I was at Uni and the insane level of youth unemployment on the continent doesn't point too well to the aspirations of the EU aligning with the young either.

Good luck with the "advisory" theme... if they choose not to implement it... after insisting they would execute on the result then all confidence in politicians will be lost forever.

I'm not sure what you mean by "Good luck with the advisory theme". If you read what I said, I reported on what some people are saying, and dismissed it. Of course it would be flouting the democratic will, which is why I also think it's silly.... i.e. my writing "Good luck with that!"

No doubt compromises will be made, but your premise that the EU needs the UK more than the other way around is flawed. You keep talking about German trade with the UK, and you're correct the UK is a large export market for Germany. 3rd behind the US and France last year. There was a period about 3 or 4 years ago, when the global financial crisis was still fresh where the UK took top spot, but that didn't last long. Still 3rd is hugely significant. I'm not sure where you get the idea that tariffs are the worst thing that can happen. Neither Germany or the UK have a particular history of protectionism and I don't expect that to happen. What is of far more significance in trade are the intangibles. Specifications, trade compliance etc. The UK by it's choice of isolation perforce has no power to impose restrictions, nor would it, given it's history of openness to trade. But on the other hand, the EU will have rules and regulations that the UK will still have to comply with in order to gain access, and here's the thing, now that they're no longer a part of the EU they can't argue against the stupid rules as they used to, and Germany and the Netherlands were happy for the UK to take on that role. That's gone now. If you think the UK will have a leg to stand on with the nitty gritty of specifications with either the EU, US (which also has a huge number of detail in its rules) or even China then you're mistaken. You talk about regaining sovereignty but the reality is that a huge amount of economic sovereignty has been lost.

I'll say one thing, the UK has the sort of flexible dynamic thinking that will enable us to flourish despite these things, but this has always been my point. Leaving the EU does not necessarily grant the UK greater sovereignty. In many ways a lot of that has now been abandoned.
 

britbox

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Yes, the UK will need to comply with EU regulations when dealing with the EU, but we won't have to comply with them when we deal with non-EU trade.

There is a good article here, I would like you to read Federberg...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ut-britains-trade-outside-the-european-union/

and the part which I thought most relevant to what you said above is this:

People assume Britain benefits from participating in setting these rules. But rules provide a framework within which all companies operate – not an advantage to any individual country.
 

britbox

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...and the UK is actually the Eurozone's biggest individual export market on a country by country basis.
 

Federberg

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In aggregate the UK is most certainly the EU's biggest export market. You made reference to Germany before.

Re: your telegraph quote, I'm not sure I ever made any comment to dispute that. It's basic common sense. Trade is gong to go on, whether the UK is in the EU or not. That's not the point, one of your arguments has been the issue of sovereignty, so I made the point that leaving the EU doesn't necessarily bolster economic sovereignty. The argument made by the author, one that has been common amongst the Leave campaign uses examples of tiny countries negotiating quick deals. It's a facile argument, and I'm surprised you brought it up. Do you really think that a country like Iceland would have a leg to stand on in trade negotiations? They take what they're given warts and all. You merely make my point about the loss of power the UK will have in future negotiations.
 

britbox

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The other issue you made a point of before Brexit was that Britain was too insignificant to make t
In aggregate the UK is most certainly the EU's biggest export market. You made reference to Germany before.

Re: your telegraph quote, I'm not sure I ever made any comment to dispute that. It's basic common sense. Trade is gong to go on, whether the UK is in the EU or not. That's not the point, one of your arguments has been the issue of sovereignty, so I made the point that leaving the EU doesn't necessarily bolster economic sovereignty. The argument made by the author, one that has been common amongst the Leave campaign uses examples of tiny countries negotiating quick deals. It's a facile argument, and I'm surprised you brought it up. Do you really think that a country like Iceland would have a leg to stand on in trade negotiations? They take what they're given warts and all. You merely make my point about the loss of power the UK will have in future negotiations.

You've made that point throughout @Federberg... but I really disagree with your standing. The EU is *HOPELESS* at making trade deals.

They took nearly 7 years to do one with Singapore... New Zealand got one done in 11 months. Yes, that mega trade engine with 3 million people. They've taken nearly 10 years with Canada and it's not even been finalised... They have no trade deal with the US, no trade deal with Russia, no trade deal with China....

Why align yourself with the slowest growing major trading block in the entire world... a juggernaught that takes years to move on anything?

Think fast, think nimble... not negotiations that take a decade to complete... by which time they are so far out of date it's ridiculous. Seriously man...
 

britbox

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In aggregate the UK is most certainly the EU's biggest export market. You made reference to Germany before.

Re: your telegraph quote, I'm not sure I ever made any comment to dispute that. It's basic common sense. Trade is gong to go on, whether the UK is in the EU or not. That's not the point, one of your arguments has been the issue of sovereignty, so I made the point that leaving the EU doesn't necessarily bolster economic sovereignty. The argument made by the author, one that has been common amongst the Leave campaign uses examples of tiny countries negotiating quick deals. It's a facile argument, and I'm surprised you brought it up. Do you really think that a country like Iceland would have a leg to stand on in trade negotiations? They take what they're given warts and all. You merely make my point about the loss of power the UK will have in future negotiations.

Are you seriously comparing Iceland and the UK? Please say no...
 

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Are you seriously comparing Iceland and the UK? Please say no...

Haha! No I'm not. The author makes the point that Iceland has negotiated deals with other economic areas, and my rebuttal is that it's easy for a small country like that to agree deals. They literally don't have a leg to stand on. It's take it or leave it so they take it. It is slightly ridiculous of the author to bring something like that up because there is no comparability with what the UK will face in trade negotiations. But there are many gullible people that will believe it's all the EU's fault. Listen I don't want to be put in a position where I'm arguing the case for the EU's trade negotiating abilities, but trade is a part of foreign policy. If you actually took the time to understand why these things take as long as they do (and the EU is NOT unique, the same thing happens in the US, sometimes it takes even longer!), perhaps you might be less scathing
 

britbox

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Haha! No I'm not. The author makes the point that Iceland has negotiated deals with other economic areas, and my rebuttal is that it's easy for a small country like that to agree deals. They literally don't have a leg to stand on. It's take it or leave it so they take it. It is slightly ridiculous of the author to bring something like that up because there is no comparability with what the UK will face in trade negotiations. But there are many gullible people that will believe it's all the EU's fault. Listen I don't want to be put in a position where I'm arguing the case for the EU's trade negotiating abilities, but trade is a part of foreign policy. If you actually took the time to understand why these things take as long as they do (and the EU is NOT unique, the same thing happens in the US, sometimes it takes even longer!), perhaps you might be less scathing

They shouldn't take 10 years Federberg... The UK needs to be nimble and fast acting. We don't need to refer to 27 other member nations for approval... I'm surprised as a trader, which I assume is high risk taking, that you'd even consider getting locked into this bureaucratic institution. "Hey, I've got the trade of a lifetime... give me the go-ahead".... "I'll kick this upto the 27 member board and we'll get back to you within the next 10 years... promise..."
 

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They shouldn't take 10 years Federberg... The UK needs to be nimble and fast acting. We don't need to refer to 27 other member nations for approval... I'm surprised as a trader, which I assume is high risk taking, that you'd even consider getting locked into this bureaucratic institution. "Hey, I've got the trade of a lifetime... give me the go-ahead".... "I'll kick this upto the 27 member board and we'll get back to you within the next 10 years... promise..."

Oh I agree! Trade negotiations ideally shouldn't take that long. But any politician who claims that leaving the EU will be a decisive factor in speeding the process up is flat out lying. (1) It's not always the EU that's slowed negotiations, these things are subject to electoral cycles, and changing political views of the negotiating parties (2) trade, is and has always been subordinate to the wider foreign policy objectives of the negotiating parties, these might change because of environmental or military or political occurrences.

How many times has the UK itself acted to impose its own foreign policy objectives on trade? I'm as cynical as the next guy, but this desire to believe that all that comes out of the EU is bureaucractic is irrational. By the way speed and nimbleness are not the preeminent requirements for good trading. A dispassionate assessment of the trade idea is far more important than anything else. I fear you have taken the stance that the EU is bad, and from that you're evolving your arguments. I would rather take my position and view the EU as good in some ways and bad in others. Unfortunately this campaign was won on false claims and subtle prejudices that have played to a demographic that was ripe for this kind of event. My objection to the result is actually less to do with the fact that we're leaving, but more to do with the fact that an electorate can have been duped into believing so many untruths. It would have been great if a more honest set of pros and cons were debated. For my part, the cultural and political benefits of remaining in the EU as well as the maintaining the integrity of the United Kingdom and also securing the preeminence of the City of London were decisive for me.

Here's the frustration for me, if the EU does eventually implode will the UK be any less affected by being out of it? Not in the slightest. The rational strategy in light of this is that the UK should remain in there, and make sure it does what it can to mitigate the risk of disaster. Now we're left on the outside with very little influence, and we'll be terribly damaged if something goes belly up. That makes no sense to me
 

britbox

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Disagree again Fberg... the vast majority of scaremongering was done by the Remain campaign... and they had the party backing to make it realistic... The Exit campaign was a rainbow coalition of bits and bobs with no mandate and no manifesto. The people voted... you might be in a bit of a cocoon in London... the feeling around the rest of England was get out...
 

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Disagree again Fberg... the vast majority of scaremongering was done by the Remain campaign... and they had the party backing to make it realistic... The Exit campaign was a rainbow coalition of bits and bobs with no mandate and no manifesto. The people voted... you might be in a bit of a cocoon in London... the feeling around the rest of England was get out...

Lol! I love the fact that you're in Australia, and you're telling me that I'm a bit removed from it all!

Actually let's be accurate, accusations about scaremongering were most effectively directed at the Remain camp. But how many of the statements made by the Remain camp have politicians actually retreated from? Yet on the Leave side we have seen many examples of parsing of words. Osborne was accused of scaremongering, but he's now announcing that the fiscal surplus target will have to be ditched? Why? The campaigning is over. The governor of the Bank of England was accused of playing politics, but he's now suggested that interest rates may have to come down this summer. They warned about economic consequences, as was their duty, and now they are preparing to take actions to mitigate the risks they warned about. Where was the scaremongering? All of this is easy enough to see, if you are willing/ open minded enough to see it.

I will say that it was an extremely effective campaign, and I was impressed (sincerely by the way) by Gove's dismissal of experts, during the campaign. It played very well to the anti-intellectual zeitgeist that Trump is also exploiting in the US.
 

britbox

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I will reply to this in full tomorrow Fberg.. (promise)... and I disagree on on a bunch of your commentary.. BUT right now (at least for the next 30 mins) I'm trying to get my head around Querrey knocking Novak out of Wimbledon... I'm a bloke and shit at multi-tasking :)
 
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Federberg

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Lol! I hear you brother. I actually missed the fact that the rain had stopped (sadly I'm in the office right now). Shocker!! I'm not unhappy about it, I'll be honest
 

Federberg

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Could the stars be aligning for Fed?

Maaan.. I really hope so. They're making Murray odds on favourite which is great. But looking at Roger's half... it still looks rough
 

britbox

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Lol! I love the fact that you're in Australia, and you're telling me that I'm a bit removed from it all!

Actually let's be accurate, accusations about scaremongering were most effectively directed at the Remain camp. But how many of the statements made by the Remain camp have politicians actually retreated from? Yet on the Leave side we have seen many examples of parsing of words. Osborne was accused of scaremongering, but he's now announcing that the fiscal surplus target will have to be ditched? Why? The campaigning is over. The governor of the Bank of England was accused of playing politics, but he's now suggested that interest rates may have to come down this summer. They warned about economic consequences, as was their duty, and now they are preparing to take actions to mitigate the risks they warned about. Where was the scaremongering? All of this is easy enough to see, if you are willing/ open minded enough to see it.

I will say that it was an extremely effective campaign, and I was impressed (sincerely by the way) by Gove's dismissal of experts, during the campaign. It played very well to the anti-intellectual zeitgeist that Trump is also exploiting in the US.

I'm not saying you're removed from it... I meant cocoon in respect of London's voting pattern compared to the rest of England, not your right to an opinion which is obviously bigger than mine because I don't live with the consequences (and didn't vote with that in mind)...

Osbourne was accused of scaremongering because he said there would be an immediate punitive budget with tax rises and spending cuts. It didn't happen and even you'll have to agree that most economic experts thought that course of action wouldn't be the right way to address the problem anyway.

There was always going to be economic consequences, certainly in the short term... and I'm glad that the steps are being made to manage them.
 

britbox

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Well, the EU don't have that trade deal with the US and predictions are they won't have it until around 2020 if at all. They've been negotiating for years already and in the meantime the US have struck various trade deals with other countries... it's not like there is just one queue for processing. The EU aren't very good at striking trade deals... we know how long they take.
 
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