Brexit

britbox

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
27,355
Reactions
6,144
Points
113
Location
Gold Coast, Australia
The Brexit Party clear winners in the UK European elections. A disastrous night for both the main parties - Conservative and Labour. I said a while ago that this issue is equally as damaging to the Labour Party because their northern base has a lot of Brexiteers whereas their southern metropolitan base would typically be pro-remain.
 

GameSetAndMath

The GOAT
Joined
Jul 9, 2013
Messages
21,141
Reactions
3,398
Points
113
It's interesting. Where Theresa May is concerned the consensus view is "Good riddance!". But the thought that follows next is... "Please not Boris!"

I think "Boris" will happen. It is Trump in USA, it is Orban in Hungary, it is Erdogan in Turkey, it is Modi in India. So, logically it follows that Boris will make it. It is almost like a SAT question, find the next item in the pattern. :facepalm:
 

britbox

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
27,355
Reactions
6,144
Points
113
Location
Gold Coast, Australia
I think "Boris" will happen. It is Trump in USA, it is Orban in Hungary, it is Erdogan in Turkey, it is Modi in India. So, logically it follows that Boris will make it. It is almost like a SAT question, find the next item in the pattern. :facepalm:

I don't think Boris is anything like Trump and neither is the British political system anything like it's US counterpart. It's a pretty lazy way of categorising things really.
 

Federberg

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 22, 2013
Messages
15,395
Reactions
5,469
Points
113
I don't think Boris is anything like Trump and neither is the British political system anything like it's US counterpart. It's a pretty lazy way of categorising things really.
Boris is a buffoon and horrendously ambitious but you’re right he’s no Trump. This is a phenomenally intelligent man. Most of us recall that as Mayor of London he was a Remainer. We Brits have never liked politicians who have so brazenly lusted after the top position. We never allowed Heseltine to become PM and kicked Gordon Brown out as soon as we could
 

britbox

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
27,355
Reactions
6,144
Points
113
Location
Gold Coast, Australia
Boris is a buffoon and horrendously ambitious but you’re right he’s no Trump. This is a phenomenally intelligent man. Most of us recall that as Mayor of London he was a Remainer. We Brits have never liked politicians who have so brazenly lusted after the top position. We never allowed Heseltine to become PM and kicked Gordon Brown out as soon as we could

The problem Boris is going to have is getting through the first round. Tory MPs will whittle it down to a shortlist of two, and then the Tory membership will vote from the shortlist.

If Boris gets to the second stage then he wins hands down. But, I think that might be about 50/50 getting there as it stands. There are a lot of factions who won't vote for him... although I think they are loosely coming around to the idea that it must be a Brexiteer. Personally, I hope Gove doesn't get any traction, the guy is a complete snake.

My preferred candidate at this stage would be Dominic Raab, but looking forward to what they all have to say.
 

Federberg

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 22, 2013
Messages
15,395
Reactions
5,469
Points
113
The problem Boris is going to have is getting through the first round. Tory MPs will whittle it down to a shortlist of two, and then the Tory membership will vote from the shortlist.

If Boris gets to the second stage then he wins hands down. But, I think that might be about 50/50 getting there as it stands. There are a lot of factions who won't vote for him... although I think they are loosely coming around to the idea that it must be a Brexiteer. Personally, I hope Gove doesn't get any traction, the guy is a complete snake.

My preferred candidate at this stage would be Dominic Raab, but looking forward to what they all have to say.
yup. Raab is my sister's favourite too. I would probably favour Hunt over him, but I'm at the stage where I find it hard to care anymore
 

GameSetAndMath

The GOAT
Joined
Jul 9, 2013
Messages
21,141
Reactions
3,398
Points
113
I don't think Boris is anything like Trump and neither is the British political system anything like it's US counterpart. It's a pretty lazy way of categorising things really.

Of course, Boris is not like Trump and they are all different in various ways. But, the commonality among them is what stands out than their differences.
 

britbox

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
27,355
Reactions
6,144
Points
113
Location
Gold Coast, Australia
Whoever wins will have their work cut out.

When May signed the extension, there was a clause to say the Withdrawal Agreement could not be renegotiated. I'm assuming that is until the end of the extension. Anyway, whoever takes on the Conservative leadership has been stitched up like a kipper before they even begin.

The EU can just say no to renegotiation and the Remainer Parliament will prevent a No Deal WTO Brexit.

There is no leverage for any EU renegotiation... unless a WTO Brexit is on the table, and Parliament will use every mechanism to stop that leverage.

There will either be a second referendum or a general election, probably before the end of the year. The first being the more likely. Conservatives would be wiped out in a General Election... and the threat of that would likely stop them trying to push the WTO Brexit option to the brink.

Despite what Labour are saying publically, I would seriously doubt they want a general election right now either, but they'll still use it as enough leverage.

In the event of a General Election, we could see some very unpredictable results. If the European election voting patterns were repeated, then the Brexit Party would win with a majority of 226. This isn't going to happen either, but I think they could make some pretty significant inroads into Labour and Conservative seats - especially as the Remain vote is split across parties.

What I think we'll see, in reality, is a second referendum. I suspected this early on after Brexit. All guns - the establishment, media and politicians will be all out to take out Farage. It'll be a concerted campaign and Remain will likely win 55/45.

Part of me thinks this has been orchestrated with "inside help". We've seen party leaders, civil servants, ex-Prime Ministers flying back and forth to Brussels to prevent this vote being carried all along.
 

isabelle

Multiple Major Winner
Joined
Apr 17, 2013
Messages
4,673
Reactions
634
Points
113
so this is tonight ? goodbye GB, good luck without Europe
 

Chris Koziarz

Masters Champion
Joined
Mar 5, 2018
Messages
926
Reactions
403
Points
63
Location
Sydney NSW
Most probably have seen this xword puzzle which was published in The Guardian like a n Easter Egg:

the editor commented that although he disapproves it in general, he does not mind it in this case because it's in accord with real op pieces published by them.
I just like the smartness of the puzzle creator (Philistine) regardless of the opinion he is promoting
 
  • Like
Reactions: tented