[Bodo] Why you shouldn't get carried away about Federer, Nadal

[El Dude]

A good reminder.

Bodo expressed some of my thoughts on the matter. It is easy and tempting to get excited and say, "They're baaack!!!" But we also must remember the realities at play, which he spells out quite well.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Roger hangs it up after this year. He accomplished the almost impossible--winning another Slam, and at 35--and did so in style, defeating the one player who has dominated him throughout his career. What more is there to accomplish? Will this take the wind out of his sails? On the other hand, as Bodo mentioned, Roger isn't Pete Sampras: he plays first and foremost for love of the game, secondly for competition, whereas Pete was always first and foremost about winning.

With Rafa I can only imagine that he's got so many injury-rehab cycles left in him. In fact, I wonder if this is the last one - meaning, if (and when, knock on wood) he gets hurt, does he have it in him to rehab again? I know he's done it before, but he's going to be 31 in his next Slam. That said, even if he gets injured I could see him thinking, "One more time." And unlike Roger--but like Pete--he might want to go out on a win. This is not to say that if he wins the FO this year he'll hang up his racquet the next day, but that he might feel that sense of completion by winning one more, and not feel the need to go through the whole cycle again once he's injured.

Anyone, what do y'all think? Given the current situation, when do you think these two will hang up their racquets?

 

[El Dude]

I also saw that Rafa pulled out of Rotterdam, which I think is a good decision. At this point I imagine that only a Slam will really satisfy - or maybe Masters, too, but ATP 250s and 500s are just kindling.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rog is definitely not going to do a Pete. At least, not at this time.

As I said in some other thread, Fed will go through a phased retirement gradually reducing the number of tourneys per year that he is participating in. I expect him to play a minimum of two more years (17 and 18) and a maximum of four years (to give him a chance to try for OG at Tokyo).
Having said that, if it becomes clear to him that he is not a contender for the big titles anymore, he will hang it up and will not keep playing in delusion.

With Rafa, despite his multiple injury breaks, he has not had major surgeries or trauma like say Haas, Baker and several others. If his breaks are taken mostly to get him to top form. So, I do expect him to come back even after another injury break. But, this year is really crucial for him. If this year he does not win RG, the window might be closing on him faster than ever. Unlike Fed, I anticipate decline for Rafa to be fast and furious (when it happens).

 

[Kieran]

Firstly, I wondered where Bodo got to. Good article. I agree with the Dude, and the article - Rafa has been injury torn and he won't recover to this level of play if he suffers another injury/return cycle. I also have caveats about his ability to close the deal at this level. But it's good to have Bodo back, and it's a very good article...

 

[Kieran]

As for when they'll both hang up their raxkets, the octogenarian will prolly finish when he's really an octogenarian :laydownlaughing and Rafa will be gone within 2 years...

 

[El Dude]

Firstly, I wondered where Bodo got to. Good article. I agree with the Dude, and the article - Rafa has been injury torn and he won't recover to this level of play if he suffers another injury/return cycle. I also have caveats about his ability to close the deal at this level. But it's good to have Bodo back, and it's a very good article...

I can't believe we're in this kind of role reversal, but I'm going to disagree with you - and hopefully try to give you a sense of hope about Rafa.

Consider this perspective: Rafa probably would have beaten Roger in the final if Roger had played like his usual self vs. Rafa. Rafa played well enough, he made some great clutch shots, but Roger just upped it a notch beyond what he usually does with Rafa - and he kept coming, again and again (all those missed breakpoints in the 5th set...which speaks more to Rafa's defense than it does Roger's inability to seal the deal...in most cases, Roger wasn't losing those break-point opportunities with his usual shankery, but it was Rafa coming up with the big shot, time and time again).

Having re-watched parts of the match again last night, I was struck by how the first four sets were relatively typical Fedal: back and forth, back and forth, shifts of momentum, seemingly evenly matched. What usually happens in the past is that Roger implodes due to attrition and/or Rafa ups it a notch, inciting that implosion. But that didn't happen this time. Rafa's level didn't even drop in the 5th, but Roger actually stepped up.

So the reason I disagree with your pessimism about Rafa, is that it took Roger at his best to beat him. I think Rafa would have beaten Andy and anything but a peak level Novak, which we may never see again, at least on a consistent basis.

Now let's shift the context from a fast hard-court to clay. In other words, take what Rafa did on what was essentially the Slam version of Cincinnati, and then move that over to his home turf. I think he'll do just fine and I'd be surprised if he didn't win at least one of the four big clay tournaments (Monte Carlo, Rome, Madrid, Roland Garros), and quite possibly two. Let's check back in after the three Masters, but right now he's my favorite for RG.

If nothing else, consider the fact that he had his best Slam run in almost three years. Certainly that is worth something? So have some faith, Kieran! Your boy has some life left in him yet.

 

[Kieran]

Trust me, brother, I have more faith now than I had since maybe FO 2014, but there's conditions attached, and they're more to do with the semi-final this year, than the final. Even the second set of the Raonic match, or the lapse that almost saw him go to 5 versus Monfils. Now, the positives are that he won all these matches, and was exceptional beyond even his peak in the 3-4, 15-40 game against grigor, in the fifth, and generally he righted himself to win these matches. But still, I think until he gets through some of these matches with more swagger and less shakes (and I would agree with anybody that shakes are understandable, given that he's not at the top now, he's trying to get back after a lousy few years), then I'll remain to be convinced.

I like that Bodo is writing that nothing is a foregone conclusion. In fact, it's just as likely that this year's Oz is just a loud echo from an era that's long ago passed...

 

[El Dude]

Trust me, brother, I have more faith now than I had since maybe FO 2014, but there's conditions attached, and they're more to do with the semi-final this year, than the final. Even the second set of the Raonic match, or the lapse that almost saw him go to 5 versus Monfils. Now, the positives are that he won all these matches, and was exceptional beyond even his peak in the 3-4, 15-40 game against grigor, in the fifth, and generally he righted himself to win these matches. But still, I think until he gets through some of these matches with more swagger and less shakes (and I would agree with anybody that shakes are understandable, given that he's not at the top now, he's trying to get back after a lousy few years), then I'll remain to be convinced.

I like that Bodo is writing that nothing is a foregone conclusion. In fact, it's just as likely that this year's Oz is just a loud echo from an era that's long ago passed...

I hear you. I think you and other Rafa fans may have to accept that he'll probably never return to 2013 form, but that his new level could be a kind of high plateau between his peak of 2013 and relative valley of 2015-16...not unlike Roger in 2014-15. So I'd say that is overall good news as that's still a pretty high form.

One reason to be optimistic going into clay season is that unlike 2014-15 for Roger, there is no true great in peak form that has a clear edge - or an edge at all - over Rafa, unlike Novak was over Roger on grass and hards in 2014-15. Unless, of course, Novak's guru-ing pays off before RG!

 

[GameSetAndMath]

My first reaction to this thread is "So, Bodo is still not fired!". What happened to the signature campaign to fire him?