A Few Thoughts on Federer

[El Dude]

Roger's at 50% - and he's able to take Nole to 3 sets twice over four days? Imagine the trouble Nole would be in if Roger was at 60%...

Roger at his best is a better player than Djokovic, at least not counting 2011 Novak. But we'll never know what 2006 Roger vs. 2011 Novak would look like.

I agree with the assessment that Roger is at 50% of his very best. I'd say that last year, during Wimbledon and his strong streak, he was about 90% of what he was at his very best (2006). Roger at 90% is better than anyone out there, except for Novak at 100% and Rafa at 90%+.

If that makes sense.

 

[Kieran]

I think a 50% Federer goes down in straights to Nole, I'd expect. I think he's played quite well recently but he's been unable to sustain it. I'd have him at 75%...

 

[El Dude]

Well let's see.
100% - Federer at his peak, 2004-2007
90% - Federer at his near peak, 2008-09, 2012
80% - Federer at his very good level, 2010-11
50% - Federer for most of 2013

So yeah, I see him at around 75%, maybe 70% to be nit-picky. At this point I think the best we can hope for is a sustained couple years at 70-80%, with one or two runs approaching 90%.

 

[brokenshoelace]

At 50%, Roger wouldn't even be in the top 15. I think we tend to overlook just how small the margins are. Obviously, Roger isn't playing anywhere near his best, but the adjustments he needs to make are relatively minor, though they would yield significant results.

 

[El Dude]

At 50%, Roger wouldn't even be in the top 15. I think we tend to overlook just how small the margins are. Obviously, Roger isn't playing anywhere near his best, but the adjustments he needs to make are relatively minor, though they would yield significant results.

For a couple months there, he wasn't playing like a top 15 player. But I agree, margins are small.

 

[Front242]

Margins are small but so is the amount of titles he's won this year. 2013 has been an uber crapfest from Fed and nothing less.

 

[DarthFed]

The adjustments that can be made are mostly mental. He has to dig in and focus every point. Aside from that the adjustment everyone has been waiting for (if you are a fan) is for him to FINALLY take a few steps back on the return. His ROS is the biggest weakness that can be improved. It's unlikely he will start moving well again and therefore his defense is a relative weakness from here on out, but the ROS can get better if he gives himself some more time.

 

[Front242]

I actually thought Fed's ROS looked much improved in the match against Djokovic in Paris at times, but not as good at the WTF. Still much room for improvement but definitely that Paris match he returned quite well at times imo.

 

[tented]

The adjustments that can be made are mostly mental. He has to dig in and focus every point. Aside from that the adjustment everyone has been waiting for (if you are a fan) is for him to FINALLY take a few steps back on the return. His ROS is the biggest weakness that can be improved. It's unlikely he will start moving well again and therefore his defense is a relative weakness from here on out, but the ROS can get better if he gives himself some more time.

Don't you think Annacone advised him to do this? If so, why didn't Roger make the necessary changes? Better yet, why have a coach?

These are ultimately rhetorical questions, of course, but I do wonder what he and Annacone really worked on, when so many have discussed Roger's ROS for years.

 

[Murat B.]

The adjustments that can be made are mostly mental. He has to dig in and focus every point. Aside from that the adjustment everyone has been waiting for (if you are a fan) is for him to FINALLY take a few steps back on the return. His ROS is the biggest weakness that can be improved. It's unlikely he will start moving well again and therefore his defense is a relative weakness from here on out, but the ROS can get better if he gives himself some more time.

Darth, I don't see the ROS thing happening . Roger lives on the baseline, and he tries to cut the angle of the serves that comes to his backhand on the ad court. If he moves back, he will have to hit those returns way behind and way outside of the court, and he will have to cover a whole lot of ground on his forehand side, which he does not like anyways.

He can move a bit back on the deuce court though, without compromising too much, since backhand serves come inside the court and if someone goes out wide, he is better at running to his backhand side than to his forehand.

I agree about the mental part though. He seems to lose his way on the court and totally give away a service game, and that is all it takes against top guys. I am pretty sure his mentality is "Whatever, i can get it back anytime I want" but he has to realize those days are gone.

 

[Front242]

The adjustments that can be made are mostly mental. He has to dig in and focus every point. Aside from that the adjustment everyone has been waiting for (if you are a fan) is for him to FINALLY take a few steps back on the return. His ROS is the biggest weakness that can be improved. It's unlikely he will start moving well again and therefore his defense is a relative weakness from here on out, but the ROS can get better if he gives himself some more time.

I agree about the mental part though. He seems to lose his way on the court and totally give away a service game, and that is all it takes against top guys. I am pretty sure his mentality is "Whatever, i can get it back anytime I want" but he has to realize those days are gone.

Exactly. He proved that well against Robredo. And he's far from a top player, no disrespect to him, as I've always liked him as a player. But Roger went down breaks against Tommy and never got them back. And we're talking about a guy who has very little in terms of offense. He shouldn't be breaking Roger so much and nor should Roger miss so many break opportunities to a guy like that. At least he hasn't been anywhere near that bad since that match.

 

[DarthFed]

The adjustments that can be made are mostly mental. He has to dig in and focus every point. Aside from that the adjustment everyone has been waiting for (if you are a fan) is for him to FINALLY take a few steps back on the return. His ROS is the biggest weakness that can be improved. It's unlikely he will start moving well again and therefore his defense is a relative weakness from here on out, but the ROS can get better if he gives himself some more time.

Darth, I don't see the ROS thing happening . Roger lives on the baseline, and he tries to cut the angle of the serves that comes to his backhand on the ad court. If he moves back, he will have to hit those returns way behind and way outside of the court, and he will have to cover a whole lot of ground on his forehand side, which he does not like anyways.

He can move a bit back on the deuce court though, without compromising too much, since backhand serves come inside the court and if someone goes out wide, he is better at running to his backhand side than to his forehand.

I agree about the mental part though. He seems to lose his way on the court and totally give away a service game, and that is all it takes against top guys. I am pretty sure his mentality is "Whatever, i can get it back anytime I want" but he has to realize those days are gone.

Yes I don't see it happening either. The only time he actually backs up and hits through the return is on some 2nd serves to mix it up (he does this most against Djokovic). More than just his positioning I think he needs to be a lot more aggressive on the 2nd serves. Annacone had him returning very aggressively for some stretches of 2010 and 2011 but he seems to have regressed in that regard.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The adjustments that can be made are mostly mental. He has to dig in and focus every point. Aside from that the adjustment everyone has been waiting for (if you are a fan) is for him to FINALLY take a few steps back on the return. His ROS is the biggest weakness that can be improved. It's unlikely he will start moving well again and therefore his defense is a relative weakness from here on out, but the ROS can get better if he gives himself some more time.

I agree about the mental part though. He seems to lose his way on the court and totally give away a service game, and that is all it takes against top guys. I am pretty sure his mentality is "Whatever, i can get it back anytime I want" but he has to realize those days are gone.

Exactly. He proved that well against Robredo. And he's far from a top player, no disrespect to him, as I've always liked him as a player. But Roger went down breaks against Tommy and never got them back. And we're talking about a guy who has very little in terms of offense. He shouldn't be breaking Roger so much and nor should Roger miss so many break opportunities to a guy like that. At least he hasn't been anywhere near that bad since that match.

In that match against Robredo, Roger was coming in on poor approach shots.
I think that was the main problem. It appeared that he wanted to finish points
off quickly and was not willing to engage in baseline rallies even with Robredo.

 

[DarthFed]

The adjustments that can be made are mostly mental. He has to dig in and focus every point. Aside from that the adjustment everyone has been waiting for (if you are a fan) is for him to FINALLY take a few steps back on the return. His ROS is the biggest weakness that can be improved. It's unlikely he will start moving well again and therefore his defense is a relative weakness from here on out, but the ROS can get better if he gives himself some more time.

Don't you think Annacone advised him to do this? If so, why didn't Roger make the necessary changes? Better yet, why have a coach?

These are ultimately rhetorical questions, of course, but I do wonder what he and Annacone really worked on, when so many have discussed Roger's ROS for years.

It's possible he did. Fed was noticeably more aggressive in late 2010 when he started working with Annacone, especially off the return. Over time the return has become way too conservative. And unlike his prime years Roger doesn't get an ungodly % of returns back in play.

 

[Front242]

The adjustments that can be made are mostly mental. He has to dig in and focus every point. Aside from that the adjustment everyone has been waiting for (if you are a fan) is for him to FINALLY take a few steps back on the return. His ROS is the biggest weakness that can be improved. It's unlikely he will start moving well again and therefore his defense is a relative weakness from here on out, but the ROS can get better if he gives himself some more time.

Don't you think Annacone advised him to do this? If so, why didn't Roger make the necessary changes? Better yet, why have a coach?

These are ultimately rhetorical questions, of course, but I do wonder what he and Annacone really worked on, when so many have discussed Roger's ROS for years.

It's possible he did. Fed was noticeably more aggressive in late 2010 when he started working with Annacone, especially off the return. Over time the return has become way too conservative. And unlike his prime years Roger doesn't get an ungodly % of returns back in play.

So true. I miss these days when his returns were killer. Here's a good example.

[video=youtube]www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxzFlrFfUrg&feature=player_detailpage[/video]

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I was surprised by some "gets" of Fed today. He surely will
have much better year in 2014.

 

[El Dude]

Yeah, today was very encouraging - and proves the last few tournaments were him re-capturing his footing. He's still not fully there, but I expect him to be back in the mix for the #3-5 spot next year and a Slam contender should Rafa and/or Novak falter.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Yeah, while I don't think Roger will ever get his old movement back on a consistent basis, his back issues must have hampered his mobility this year. As long as he's relatively healthy next year, I expect him to be moving around the court better.

 

[Murat B.]

Some of the volleys he reached for today and actually made, he used to let them go all year...I think it is a good sign.

 

[Front242]

Some of the volleys he reached for today and actually made, he used to let them go all year...I think it is a good sign.

Definitely. And for sure it's clear his back was affecting him. Movement is much better than it was most of the year. Looked so stiff and rigid months ago when it was bothering him. He was letting balls go past him without making any attempt to run them down. Now, his movement is obviously not like it was when he was younger, but it's a marked improvement over earlier this year.