- Joined
- Apr 14, 2013
- Messages
- 10,114
- Reactions
- 5,764
- Points
- 113
It is meant to be a bit provocative and to be clear, as I have said for years, I tend to take the "Herd of GOATs" view over the singular GOAT theory, mainly because I think you have to judge players by the era they play in, and there's no way to compare Bill Tilden, Pancho Gonzales, Rod Laver, and the Big Three.
That said, if a gun is held to my head and I have to choose only one, Novak is approaching the point that, when all is said and done, he might be hard to argue against. Consider how the Big Three currently rank:
Grand Slams: Roger 20, Rafa 20, Novak 19
Weeks at #1: Novak 323, Roger 310, Rafa 209
Titles: Roger 103, Rafa 88, Novak 84
Year-end #1s: Novak 6, Roger 5, Rafa 5
Tour Finals: Roger 6, Novak 5, Rafa 0
Masters: Rafa 36, Novak 36, Roger 28
Records against the other two: Novak 57-51, Rafa 52-46, Roger 39-51
It may be that, right now, their total career resumes are about as equal as they'll ever be. While accumulative statistics don't tell the whole picture, it is looking like Novak will end up with the lead in Grand Slams, Weeks at #1, Year-end #1s, Masters, winning records against both Roger and Rafa, and maybe has a shot at titles and Tour Finals. If he can win an Olympics Gold this year (If it happens) it will be icing on the cake.
Or we can look at it this way:
Novak vs. Roger: Roger's claim was that he led the "Triple Crown" of tennis stats: Slams, Weeks at #1 (more important than year-end, imo), and Titles (or, at least, he leads Rafa and Novak, but is still second to Connors in the Open Era). But Novak has surpassed him in weeks and will probably surpass him in Grand Slams, Rafa possibly as well. Novak's counting stats will almost be superior to Roger's in almost every way. And, of course, the Serb has a 27-23 edge in the head-to-head, and a very solid 11-6 lead at Slams. I'd say that, right now, they're about equal, which means that Novak will almost certainly surpass Roger. When all is said and done, Roger might only lead Novak in career titles and match wins, but not much else.
Roger's path to reclaiming the crown to singular GOATdom is very slim indeed: Not only does he probably need to win one more Slam, but he needs Novak and Rafa to not equal or surpass and essentially freeze their career accomplishments. This is very unlikely to happen.
Novak vs. Rafa: Rafa's overall problem is that he's equal or behind the other two in most ways, statistically speaking. His chance of claiming singular GOAT would be to end his career with the most Grand Slams and then maybe butter it up with edges in the head-to-head. He'll have the latter over Roger, but Novak leads him 30-28, although Rafa holds a 10-7 edge at Slams. Novak has a 16-13 edge in finals. Rafa also has two significant issues: he's way behind in the weeks at #1, and he's never won even a single World Tour Finals. Now any discussion of Rafa has to include his clay dominance, but that doesn't really factor into the GOAT conversation, imo. Clay GOAT, of course. But overall? It just gets mixed in with everything else. But what about the Olympics? It is a nice title to have, and maybe takes the edge off the lack of a WTF, but in the end doesn't have the clout of any of the records mentioned. Lot's of great players haven't won or played in the Olympics, while almost no all-great times haven't won at least a single WTF (among Open Era greats, only Rafa and Wilander, and Wilander is in the latter half of the top 20).
Rafa's path to singular GOATdom is a bit more possible than Roger's, but still rather unlikely: He needs to win at least one or two more Slams, and possibly regain the H2H over Novak and maybe win an ATP (I know his fans try to minimize this, but I think the fact that he's never one it is a significant black mark on his record).
And of course Novak now has a double career Slam, an accomplishment that Roger will never equal, and Rafa is unlikely to.
My verdict:
In this moment, I think we can still say that they're all roughly equal. A year or two ago I'd still give the edge to Roger, but I don't think I can do that anymore. I think both Rafa and Novak have equaled him, at least when you take everything into account.
Going forward, I think the most likely outcome is that Novak will end up being seen as the first among near-equals. The three will be forever linked, and in a way Roger first established the idea of GOAT, then was vanquished by Rafa, who in turn is being surpassed by Novak. Years from now, I'd guess that they'll be considered the top three with everyone else (with the possible except of Rod Laver) being well behind, but Novak as the consensus #1. Whether or not Rafa claims #2 over Roger probably depends upon his final GS tally, unless of course he bulks up those weeks at #1 and wins an elusive WTF.
So congrats to Novak and his fans. For what it's worth (not very much), I think he is--or very shortly will be--the second best choice for the question: Who is the tennis GOAT? (The best answer being, "Depends on the era and context").
That said, if a gun is held to my head and I have to choose only one, Novak is approaching the point that, when all is said and done, he might be hard to argue against. Consider how the Big Three currently rank:
Grand Slams: Roger 20, Rafa 20, Novak 19
Weeks at #1: Novak 323, Roger 310, Rafa 209
Titles: Roger 103, Rafa 88, Novak 84
Year-end #1s: Novak 6, Roger 5, Rafa 5
Tour Finals: Roger 6, Novak 5, Rafa 0
Masters: Rafa 36, Novak 36, Roger 28
Records against the other two: Novak 57-51, Rafa 52-46, Roger 39-51
It may be that, right now, their total career resumes are about as equal as they'll ever be. While accumulative statistics don't tell the whole picture, it is looking like Novak will end up with the lead in Grand Slams, Weeks at #1, Year-end #1s, Masters, winning records against both Roger and Rafa, and maybe has a shot at titles and Tour Finals. If he can win an Olympics Gold this year (If it happens) it will be icing on the cake.
Or we can look at it this way:
Novak vs. Roger: Roger's claim was that he led the "Triple Crown" of tennis stats: Slams, Weeks at #1 (more important than year-end, imo), and Titles (or, at least, he leads Rafa and Novak, but is still second to Connors in the Open Era). But Novak has surpassed him in weeks and will probably surpass him in Grand Slams, Rafa possibly as well. Novak's counting stats will almost be superior to Roger's in almost every way. And, of course, the Serb has a 27-23 edge in the head-to-head, and a very solid 11-6 lead at Slams. I'd say that, right now, they're about equal, which means that Novak will almost certainly surpass Roger. When all is said and done, Roger might only lead Novak in career titles and match wins, but not much else.
Roger's path to reclaiming the crown to singular GOATdom is very slim indeed: Not only does he probably need to win one more Slam, but he needs Novak and Rafa to not equal or surpass and essentially freeze their career accomplishments. This is very unlikely to happen.
Novak vs. Rafa: Rafa's overall problem is that he's equal or behind the other two in most ways, statistically speaking. His chance of claiming singular GOAT would be to end his career with the most Grand Slams and then maybe butter it up with edges in the head-to-head. He'll have the latter over Roger, but Novak leads him 30-28, although Rafa holds a 10-7 edge at Slams. Novak has a 16-13 edge in finals. Rafa also has two significant issues: he's way behind in the weeks at #1, and he's never won even a single World Tour Finals. Now any discussion of Rafa has to include his clay dominance, but that doesn't really factor into the GOAT conversation, imo. Clay GOAT, of course. But overall? It just gets mixed in with everything else. But what about the Olympics? It is a nice title to have, and maybe takes the edge off the lack of a WTF, but in the end doesn't have the clout of any of the records mentioned. Lot's of great players haven't won or played in the Olympics, while almost no all-great times haven't won at least a single WTF (among Open Era greats, only Rafa and Wilander, and Wilander is in the latter half of the top 20).
Rafa's path to singular GOATdom is a bit more possible than Roger's, but still rather unlikely: He needs to win at least one or two more Slams, and possibly regain the H2H over Novak and maybe win an ATP (I know his fans try to minimize this, but I think the fact that he's never one it is a significant black mark on his record).
And of course Novak now has a double career Slam, an accomplishment that Roger will never equal, and Rafa is unlikely to.
My verdict:
In this moment, I think we can still say that they're all roughly equal. A year or two ago I'd still give the edge to Roger, but I don't think I can do that anymore. I think both Rafa and Novak have equaled him, at least when you take everything into account.
Going forward, I think the most likely outcome is that Novak will end up being seen as the first among near-equals. The three will be forever linked, and in a way Roger first established the idea of GOAT, then was vanquished by Rafa, who in turn is being surpassed by Novak. Years from now, I'd guess that they'll be considered the top three with everyone else (with the possible except of Rod Laver) being well behind, but Novak as the consensus #1. Whether or not Rafa claims #2 over Roger probably depends upon his final GS tally, unless of course he bulks up those weeks at #1 and wins an elusive WTF.
So congrats to Novak and his fans. For what it's worth (not very much), I think he is--or very shortly will be--the second best choice for the question: Who is the tennis GOAT? (The best answer being, "Depends on the era and context").