Australian Open Final 2018: Federer v Cilic

[Ricardo]

I think part of it is that he looked old and worn down vs. Cilic but not sure how much stock to put in that because he was in terminator mode the couple matches before it and even the first four rounds he looked deadly anytime there was pressure.

He always gets emotional at Australia in front of Laver and when he's getting such great fan support. I still think he plays another couple years as long as he's healthy. The only thing that may make him retire after this year is if he goes nuts and wins Wimbledon and USO.

I also agree that Mirka will never ask him to quit. She understands what is going on, (weak as hell tour and Rafa is still going strong). I think she knows if Roger retires early he may regret it even if he keeps the slam record and she of course knows he will really really regret it if Nadal equals him or worse. It may be tough but Fed will push on.

Gosh that’s just your imagination.

 

[DarthFed]

Gosh that’s just your imagination.

Care to elaborate?

 

[10isfan]

The Fed kids will never be “normal” so they may as well be not normal and help their dad achieve immortality in his sport instead of terminating his career by insisting on normalcy. I know plenty of families that live non traditionally like this, eg, on the road, homeschooling, whatever. They actually enjoy it. I hope that is the case with his family so he plays on as long as he wants.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

He always gets emotional at Australia in front of Laver and when he's getting such great fan support. I still think he plays another couple years as long as he's healthy. The only thing that may make him retire after this year is if he goes nuts and wins Wimbledon and USO.

No, Roger will never retire because he got complacent with his accomplishments. If that were the case, he could have retired at so many different points of time in the past. He will only retire when more accomplishments become unrealistic.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The Fed kids will never be “normal” so they may as well be not normal and help their dad achieve immortality in his sport instead of terminating his career by insisting on normalcy. I know plenty of families that live non traditionally like this, eg, on the road, homeschooling, whatever. They actually enjoy it. I hope that is the case with his family so he plays on as long as he wants.

The girls are 9 years old. In few more years, they can join the tour and then they will no longer feel they are travelling just to accompany dad. :lulz2:

 

[DarthFed]

No, Roger will never retire because he got complacent with his accomplishments. If that were the case, he could have retired at so many different points of time in the past. He will only retire when more accomplishments become unrealistic.

Now I think that is more of the wishful thinking some are accusing me of here. Of course Roger could be burned out and lose his desire to play before he slides down the rankings. But despite what Dude and others think I do believe the safety of the slam record is a big deal. If he got to something like 5 or 6 ahead at the end of this year I could see him possibly retiring as it'd be impossible to go out on a higher note and maybe he would lose some of his desire. But if he is just 3 ahead or less...he is going to keep playing.

Being the second greatest player of all time would be great I'm sure. Lots of money and glory. But you know what's a shit-ton better than being the second greatest of all time? Roger does and he isn't going to want to give that up just to spend more time with the kiddies.

 

[lob]

But if he is just 3 ahead or less...he is going to keep playing.

At 36, it's largely out of his control whether he can add to that. Too many uncertainties and unknown unknowns. He lost several years of his career, something like 5 full years, by the time he changed that racket and reinvented himself.

He hasn't won the US open for 9 years now and he just made one final in those years. He became a contender at AO again only after they changed the court.

 

[DarthFed]

At 36, it's largely out of his control whether he can add to that. Too many uncertainties and unknown unknowns. He lost several years of his career, something like 5 full years, by the time he changed that racket and reinvented himself.

He hasn't won the US open for 9 years now and he just made one final in those years. He became a contender at AO again only after they changed the court.

With the current field and Roger having Wimbledon I'd say he still will have plenty of opportunities if he stays healthy and motivated (those are the big if's). And don't count out USO, especially if it starts playing a little faster again.

 

[El Dude]

@DarthFed, I know you want that Slam title count really bad...but I think you can relax a bit. For Rafa to catch and surpass Roger, he needs to win 5 more Slams at age 32 and older. There are have only been 9 Slams won by 32+ year olds in Open Era history: 4 by Rosewall, 3 by Federer, 1 each by Gimeno and Agassi. Hard to imagine Nadal doing it 5 times. Not to mention that Roger might not be done.

 

[Federberg]

Fedal are different animals. That slam count isn't safe yet

 

[DarthFed]

@DarthFed, I know you want that Slam title count really bad...but I think you can relax a bit. For Rafa to catch and surpass Roger, he needs to win 5 more Slams at age 32 and older. There are have only been 9 Slams won by 32+ year olds in Open Era history: 4 by Rosewall, 3 by Federer, 1 each by Gimeno and Agassi. Hard to imagine Nadal doing it 5 times. Not to mention that Roger might not be done.

All true but I think we know by now we can't go off history, players are lasting a lot longer. The other big factors are that this is the weakest field either of them have been blessed with. Third factor for Nadal is that he could be winning RG for many years to come. 35 year old Rafa will still have otherworldly topspin on clay and there is no new player that has shown much on that surface, Thiem included.

 

[El Dude]

I hear you, @DarthFed, but the margin of error for Rafa is miniscule - just one RG loss and his chances of surpassing Fed become virtually non-existent. There are just too many things that have to go right for Rafa to win more Slams than Roger:
1. Roger has to stop winning Slams.
2. Rafa has to stay healthy for 3+ years.
3. Novak can't come back strong.
4. No young player has to rise to significantly challenge on clay.

Again it isn't only about being four behind - it is being four behind and Roger just won a Slam a week ago, and could win more.

But let's re-calibrate after RG. If Rafa wins it, he's still in the running. If he loses, he almost certainly won't do it.

Of course if Rafa wins RG and the USO again and, say, Cilic wins Wimbledon, then we're at 20 and 18 going into 2019, and the lead doesn't look so good...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Fedal are different animals. That slam count isn't safe yet

I think a diff of 5 at the end of a calendar year would be safe.

 

[Federberg]

I think a diff of 5 at the end of a calendar year would be safe.

Agreed. My hope is that Roger gets both Wimbledon and the USO this year. If that happens, all I can say is if Rafa overtakes him he deserves it

 

[the AntiPusher]

I hear you, @DarthFed, but the margin of error for Rafa is miniscule - just one RG loss and his chances of surpassing Fed become virtually non-existent. There are just too many things that have to go right for Rafa to win more Slams than Roger:
1. Roger has to stop winning Slams.
2. Rafa has to stay healthy for 3+ years.
3. Novak can't come back strong.
4. No young player has to rise to significantly challenge on clay.

Again it isn't only about being four behind - it is being four behind and Roger just won a Slam a week ago, and could win more.

But let's re-calibrate after RG. If Rafa wins it, he's still in the running. If he loses, he almost certainly won't do it.

Of course if Rafa wins RG and the USO again and, say, Cilic wins Wimbledon, then we're at 20 and 18 going into 2019, and the lead doesn't look so good...

Very good analysis El Dude.. There’s one other caveat, Rafa is a stubborn bull about his schedule whereas Roger is managing his like an CEO who works in Silicon Valley. Rafa is still playing way too much which makes him more susceptible to getting injured. Roger is playing Chess while Rafa is playing horseshoes..

 

[the AntiPusher]

My money is on OKC with their fantastic Big 3 crushing your boy Jimmy Butler in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs. Can't wait.

Gotdammitt Cali..OKC just destroyed da Dubs again. Russell played last night like ole Rafa, playing like someone is tryin to take food off his table.. KS..our boy EagleDollar is getting old and the Warriors bench isn’t scoring like last year..I am not worried but dammitt I am getting concerned.

 

[Andy22]

Gotdammitt Cali..OKC just destroyed da Dubs again. Russell played last night like ole Rafa, playing like someone is tryin to take food off his table.. KS..our boy EagleDollar is getting old and the Warriors bench isn’t scoring like last year..I am not worried but dammitt I am getting concerned.

Roger federer will not be safe until he win one more slam, Rafael nadal is too much of All around player.