Brexit

[Federberg]

NI wouldn't vote out (of the UK). Voting out of the EU as part of a UK is very different from voting out from the UK altogether. NI doesn't have the numbers... the Unionist vote would come together and they'd vote to stay in (the UK)... It will take another 15-20 years before there is a Republican majority in NI... and speaking to plenty of citizens of Eire... I'm not sure they want them anyway... a vote out of the UK would lead to prolonged loyalist violence.

Scotland is another matter... but a vote into the EU outside the UK... will be close. They might carry it but it's not a good time for the Scots to do it with the oil price at rock bottom.

So, the UK as a whole... Until I see Article 50 signed and enacted then it's not a done deal... far from it. These contingencies will have been planned for beforehand by the Remain Group... and corporate Europe. I think we're going through a process that will ultimately lead to a second referendum, a few bones throne to swing the vote... and a remain in Europe vote.

I agree with you about N Ireland, and I hope you're right about the rest. But I'm not that optimistic.

 

[Mary]

Well I can see Boris retreating, but Farage is pretty racist, and his rant at the EU parliament yesterday doesn't provide any evidence of retreat

He was a disgusting embarrassment yesterday. Wish they had thrown him out. But I think he will have to disassociate himself with what's going on somehow. Off to correct typo in my post - know do you stop tablet altering what you write? It's like Ron Weasley's pen!

 

[britbox]

If I was in your shoes... I'd be optimistic. Cameron said he would enact Article 50 with immediate effect. He hasn't. All this stuff will have been considered beforehand... even if it was considered as "unlikely".

Most of these politicians are puppets Federberg... and the key players are answerable to other bodies before the electorate.

Personally, I think the EU is doomed to failure long term, and the UK would be better cutting it's losses now... but it won't happen for one main reason alone... people haven't got the stomach to take it on the chin... for what might be upto 5 years + of pain. I get it... understandable.

In the meantime, what would it take the Remain camp to swing it? I'm hazarding a guess at controlled immigration which plays to the masses (not my reason BTW)... Controlled immigration as opposed to the the free movement of people... There is a difference. People being free to move without the welfare aspect.

 

[britbox]

Well I can see Boris retreating, but Farage is pretty racist, and his rant at the EU parliament yesterday doesn't provide any evidence of retreat

Well, he's not going to retreat... He's staked his entire life on this.

 

[Mary]

Well, he's not going to retreat... He's staked his entire life on this.

I didn't mean retreat from Brexit but disassociate himself from the racist abuse and attacks that are mounting so fast.

 

[britbox]

He'll go through the motions and say the "right" things... in due course, probably...

 

[Federberg]

If I was in your shoes... I'd be optimistic. Cameron said he would enact Article 50 with immediate effect. He hasn't. All this stuff will have been considered beforehand... even if it was considered as "unlikely".

Most of these politicians are puppets Federberg... and the key players are answerable to other bodies before the electorate.

Personally, I think the EU is doomed to failure long term, and the UK would be better cutting it's losses now... but it won't happen for one main reason alone... people haven't got the stomach to take it on the chin... for what might be upto 5 years + of pain. I get it... understandable.

In the meantime, what would it take the Remain camp to swing it? I'm hazarding a guess at controlled immigration which plays to the masses (not my reason BTW)... Controlled immigration as opposed to the the free movement of people... There is a difference. People being free to move without the welfare aspect.

The immigration issue with regards to the EU has always seemed a bit of red herring to me. The Europeans that come here aren't coming here for the social. They work even if it's picking fruit. My cleaners and gardners are all Eastern European, and they are incredibly hard working and trustworthy. Tried using locals before, and they make excuses, are lazy and sometimes not even trustworthy.

The immigration problem is from those outside the EU, and I'm not sure how leaving the EU is going to stem that. These people will find their way into the UK anyway.

But I do appreciate that was never your focus.

If we do exit, I fear the damage to the financial sector. Already we are at risk of losing a truly massive amount of business, particularly the eurobond market.

As for Cameron's comments pre- the vote, there was a lot of fear mongering, realistically he couldn't be the one to invoke Article 50 as he was fighting for the other side. It is very clear, watching from here, that there was NO plan for Brexit. I might excuse Cameron, but I don't excuse the 'Leave' campaigners. Anyway, right now I'm just hoping Teresa May wins, anyone but Boris!! If he wins, then I'll probably opt out of voting in the next election, out of sheer spite. Sadly, given the way Labour is going, the opposition party might well be UKIP. This country is becoming ugly

 

[britbox]

Interesting... because I think a bunch of parties breaking the duopoly of Labour and the Conservertives is good in many respects... it keeps them honest.

I've no problem with controlled immigration at all... and at equal numbers to what we have now... but I've always found the "racism" card to be rather pathetic. Europe largely consists of White Caucasians... the rest of the world is bit more multi-coloured. If anything, it's racist to deny them the same level of entry than our European cousins.

Disagree on Cameron... he is PM and could easily have invoked Article 50... he pledged to do so with immediate effect ...and chose not to.

Teresa May? Get serious chief... I don't buy Boris either... my preference is for David Davis.. although I suspect he won't stand.

 

[britbox]

Labour are f**ked BTW.

 

[Federberg]

Interesting... because I think a bunch of parties breaking the duopoly of Labour and the Conservertives is good in many respects... it keeps them honest.

I've no problem with controlled immigration at all... and at equal numbers to what we have now... but I've always found the "racism" card to be rather pathetic. Europe largely consists of White Caucasians... the rest of the world is bit more multi-coloured. If anything, it's racist to deny them the same level of entry than our European cousins.

Disagree on Cameron... he is PM and could easily have invoked Article 50... he pledged to do so with immediate effect ...and chose not to.

Teresa May? Get serious chief... I don't buy Boris either... my preference is for David Davis.. although I suspect he won't stand.

Over here, they are saying that she's the most likely to successfully challenge Boris. Just telling you what I'm hearing. I'm with you, as I've said before David Davis would be my candidate. Frankly I would have preferred him to Cameron in the first place!

Yes he could have. I'm not saying he couldn't have invoked. I'm saying that I'm not surprised at all he didn't. It wasn't really his mandate, and frankly I'm not surprised he's doing it this way given he has resigned his post. I'm not sure he'll commit to any type of legislation at all between now and when he leaves. He's just a lame duck now.

Re: immigration, not sure if you're disagreeing with what I said or just making another point. For what it's worth, staffing in the NHS is massively immigrant based. And mostly of the non-EU kind. I have no problem with immigration either, it was never an issue for me

 

[Federberg]

Labour are f**ked BTW.

Lol! Agreed. I'm not bothered by that at all! Good riddance

 

[Mary]

Labour are f**ked BTW.

Seems the CLPs are backing Corbin. I am wondering if they can force reselection. The party will split. Interesting that last time when the gang of four split from Labour part of their agenda was to leave Europe!

 

[Mary]

Over here, they are saying that she's the most likely to successfully challenge Boris. Just telling you what I'm hearing. I'm with you, as I've said before David Davis would be my candidate. Frankly I would have preferred him to Cameron in the first place!

Yes he could have. I'm not saying he couldn't have invoked. I'm saying that I'm not surprised at all he didn't. It wasn't really his mandate, and frankly I'm not surprised he's doing it this way given he has resigned his post. I'm not sure he'll commit to any type of legislation at all between now and when he leaves. He's just a lame duck now.

Re: immigration, not sure if you're disagreeing with what I said or just making another point. For what it's worth, staffing in the NHS is massively immigrant based. And mostly of the non-EU kind. I have no problem with immigration either, it was never an issue for me

I think Tory Leadership at present is a poisoned chalice. Look at the timing of actual exit, likely term of office and election. If I were Davis I'd wait.

 

[britbox]

Seems the CLPs are backing Corbin. I am wondering if they can force reselection. The party will split. Interesting that last time when the gang of four split from Labour part of their agenda was to leave Europe!

I don't like Corbyn or his politics... but I'm all for him standing up to these career politicians. He's got a mandate from the masses... This is pretty fascinating for me... but I want him to win this battle for the sake of democaracy... even if I think the guy is largely a clown.

 

[Mary]

I don't like Corbyn or his politics... but I'm all for him standing up to these career politicians. He's got a mandate from the masses... This is pretty fascinating for me... but I want him to win this battle for the sake of democaracy... even if I think the guy is largely a clown.

I didn't vote for him in the leadership election but I totally accepted the mandate. The Blairites have been out to get him ever since he was elected and the manner and timing of this is appalling. I am furious that they can ignore the membership and their CLPs. Corbyn may not win this but I think they won't win either. I have never felt Eagle should have had such a senior place. She consistently backed the Iraq war and opposed any enquiry. She also abstained on the Welfare vote which was at the heart of labour principles. I think she is dead in the water now. The party will split without doubt. We've done it before and survived.
And it's not a bad time to do it. If there was a quick election and if we won we would be back to the poisoned chalice scenario. I think all parties in any run up to Brexit will need to attempt to safeguard Health, workers rights etc and I don't think any one party can do this better than another in the present scenario.

 

[Federberg]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ds-to-chorus-calling-for-london-to-lose-euro/

It's starting...

 

[EdbergsGhost]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ds-to-chorus-calling-for-london-to-lose-euro/

It's starting...

The folks at the EU are ramping up the rhetoric. Will they follow through, or is this sabre rattling?

 

[britbox]

I think anybody who voted Brexit should have been well aware that there was going to be short term economic pain.... bound to happen... question is whether people have the stomach to see it out. People who voted out panicking a week after the result is kind of silly. What Cameron has done though by not invoking Article 50 is to breed uncertainty and to leave the UK in limbo. Markets don't like uncertainty... investors don't like uncertainty...

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

labour leadership battle,
tory/pm leadership battle,
possible general election in October,
and where the frig are the lib dems ??..all 6 of them.
no beginning of eu sort out until September (thanks dave)..

tis a bit of a muddle..said the hippy to the chaffinch.

 

[Billie]

I think anybody who voted Brexit should have been well aware that there was going to be short term economic pain.... bound to happen... question is whether people have the stomach to see it out. People who voted out panicking a week after the result is kind of silly. What Cameron has done though by not invoking Article 50 is to breed uncertainty and to leave the UK in limbo. Markets don't like uncertainty... investors don't like uncertainty...

It is so easy to manipulate the masses. So there is a chance that they will vote again once the powerful few scare people enough to not vote for exit? That is a popular tactic to mess with ordinary people's minds. If this happened in Russia, the West would call the referendum a fraud.