The discussion in another thread about Novak's record in slam finals got me thinking about why he is seen, by some, to be under-achieving at slams. For me, it is less that he is 8-8 in slam finals, and more that his record at slams differs from his dominance outside of the slams over the same time period.
In 2011, he dominated at the slams and the Masters, but since the start of 2012:
At Masters and WTFs, he has won 17 out of 33 masters and WTFs events - over half of events in which he has competed - 52% - ridiculous really - amazing dominance.
At slams - 4 out of 14 - 29% - far less success.
So, since 2012, Novak has been much more successful at Masters/WTFs, overall, then at slams. This, for me, is what gives the feeling that he has under-achieved.
Why do you think that is?
You wouldn't think it would be because of the best of 3 vs best of 5, because Novak is probably the fittest guy out there. So what's going on here?
I think it is at least partly because Novak has in fact only been truly dominant on slower hards. And only one of the slams is played on slower hards.
The fact that Novak has won only 1 USO is strange. The wind is definitely a factor, as mentioned in another thread, but it also shows the difference between Novak on slow and faster hards. The fact is that off slow hards, Novak is far less dominant...I mean, he’s never won Cinci, and look how Fed still dominates him on fast hards e.g. Dubai. I know USO is not fast like Dubai, but Novak is definitely more vulnerable there than at the slower AO, where his dominance is extraordinary. His vastly different level of success at AO and USO must be partly due to the surface, no? On the slower hards of the AO, it’s almost impossible to break through Novak’s defence, at least for long enough to win the match. Just ask Andy Murray, who hasn’t managed to do it in four attempts over the last 5 years (the closest he came being the SF in 2012). The only guy who has managed to beat Novak at the AO in the last 5 years is Stan, who broke through Novak's defence with his incredible power - and even then only 9-7 in the 5th!
If we look at the numbers:
On slower hards at Masters and WTFs since start of 2012 (IW, Miami, Canada, Paris, WTFs) - Novak has won 11 out of 17 - 65%!
And on other surfaces (Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome, Cinci, Shanghai) - 6 out of 16 - 38%!
A large difference. On slower hards, he is incredibly dominant - winning almost 2/3rds of the events, but on other surfaces, he is winning only sightly over 1/3rd.
At slams since start of 2012:
Slow hards (AO)- 3 out of 4 - 75%
Other surfaces (FO, WD, USO) - 1 out of 10! - 10%!
i.e. Novak has won only 1 major outside of the AO since 2012 - last year's WD. A somewhat shocking stat to me, given his overall dominance in the game.
Then combine these 2 sets of stats:
Slower hards - Slams, Masters and WTFs - 14 out of 21 - 67%
Other surfaces - Slams and Masters - 7 out of 26! - 27%!
And look at his overall slam finals record:
On slower hard (AO) - 5-0 - 100%
On other surfaces (FO, WD, USO) - 3-8 - 38%
These stats suggest Novak is only dominant on slower hards, and not on other surafces, and thus we actually shouldn't be so surprised if he doesn't win a faster hards, grass or clay tournament - and 3/4 of the majors are played on clay, grass and faster hards.
[I'm not sure about this theory, though. Novak has won 2 WDs in the last 4 years, after all, along with a F and SF. And Novak's lack of clay dominance is affected by Nadal's presence - but then Novak has won 4 clay masters since 2012, beating Rafa in 3 of them.]
What do people think?
In 2011, he dominated at the slams and the Masters, but since the start of 2012:
At Masters and WTFs, he has won 17 out of 33 masters and WTFs events - over half of events in which he has competed - 52% - ridiculous really - amazing dominance.
At slams - 4 out of 14 - 29% - far less success.
So, since 2012, Novak has been much more successful at Masters/WTFs, overall, then at slams. This, for me, is what gives the feeling that he has under-achieved.
Why do you think that is?
You wouldn't think it would be because of the best of 3 vs best of 5, because Novak is probably the fittest guy out there. So what's going on here?
I think it is at least partly because Novak has in fact only been truly dominant on slower hards. And only one of the slams is played on slower hards.
The fact that Novak has won only 1 USO is strange. The wind is definitely a factor, as mentioned in another thread, but it also shows the difference between Novak on slow and faster hards. The fact is that off slow hards, Novak is far less dominant...I mean, he’s never won Cinci, and look how Fed still dominates him on fast hards e.g. Dubai. I know USO is not fast like Dubai, but Novak is definitely more vulnerable there than at the slower AO, where his dominance is extraordinary. His vastly different level of success at AO and USO must be partly due to the surface, no? On the slower hards of the AO, it’s almost impossible to break through Novak’s defence, at least for long enough to win the match. Just ask Andy Murray, who hasn’t managed to do it in four attempts over the last 5 years (the closest he came being the SF in 2012). The only guy who has managed to beat Novak at the AO in the last 5 years is Stan, who broke through Novak's defence with his incredible power - and even then only 9-7 in the 5th!
If we look at the numbers:
On slower hards at Masters and WTFs since start of 2012 (IW, Miami, Canada, Paris, WTFs) - Novak has won 11 out of 17 - 65%!
And on other surfaces (Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome, Cinci, Shanghai) - 6 out of 16 - 38%!
A large difference. On slower hards, he is incredibly dominant - winning almost 2/3rds of the events, but on other surfaces, he is winning only sightly over 1/3rd.
At slams since start of 2012:
Slow hards (AO)- 3 out of 4 - 75%
Other surfaces (FO, WD, USO) - 1 out of 10! - 10%!
i.e. Novak has won only 1 major outside of the AO since 2012 - last year's WD. A somewhat shocking stat to me, given his overall dominance in the game.
Then combine these 2 sets of stats:
Slower hards - Slams, Masters and WTFs - 14 out of 21 - 67%
Other surfaces - Slams and Masters - 7 out of 26! - 27%!
And look at his overall slam finals record:
On slower hard (AO) - 5-0 - 100%
On other surfaces (FO, WD, USO) - 3-8 - 38%
These stats suggest Novak is only dominant on slower hards, and not on other surafces, and thus we actually shouldn't be so surprised if he doesn't win a faster hards, grass or clay tournament - and 3/4 of the majors are played on clay, grass and faster hards.
[I'm not sure about this theory, though. Novak has won 2 WDs in the last 4 years, after all, along with a F and SF. And Novak's lack of clay dominance is affected by Nadal's presence - but then Novak has won 4 clay masters since 2012, beating Rafa in 3 of them.]
What do people think?
