Wimbledon Seedings

[mightyjeditribble]

(Edited to correct the formula.)

There has been some discussion about 2017 Wimbledon seedings. In particular, the question was raised whether Federer will achieve a top 4 seeding.

It is really far too early, and there are too many unknowns. Still, we can take a look at the points that we already know will be added.

The formula is as follows: Take the points as current ahead of Wimbledon, add the previous 12 months grass court results again (i.e., 2017 warm-ups + 2016 Wimbledon), and 75% of the best result of the previous 12 months (2016 warm-ups and 2015 SW19).

Fed has 2015 Wimbledon F (1200), 2016 Stuttgart, Halle, Wimbledon SF (90/180/720).

75% of 1200=900
So points to be added are 1620 + grass-court results from 2017.

So Fed will indeed have a significant advantage through the seeding system. Apart from Murray and Djokovic, there would seem to be only Raonic at a similar level.

He has 2015 Wimbledon R3 (90) 2016 Queens F (300), Wimbledon F (1200).
So he gets an extra 1425 + grass-court warm-ups 2017 for the seedings.

So we see that Fed is ahead even of Raonic on the extra grass-court points. If Fed wins IW, he will be almost equal with Raonic on current ranking points. Nishikori and Stan are higher, but have almost nothing in grass-court results to be added for the formula (Nishikori has 2016 R16, Wawrinka 2015 QF, adding 180/270 points; very little otherwise).

Currently, Fed's deficit in the rankings behind the top 3-6:
Wawrinka: 1800 (2200 if Stan wins IW, 1400 if Fed does);
Nishikori: 825 (425 if Fed wins IW);
Raonic: 575 (175 if Fed wins IW);
Nadal: 240 (Roger overtakes Rafa if he wins IW).

A lot can still happen between now and Wimbledon, but as things stand, a top 4 seeding for Federer no longer seems entirely fanciful, particularly if he wins the IW title.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The formula you are using is wrong.

The points won on grass beginning from 2016 Wimbledon will be added. From the 12 months before that time, they will pick the best result of a player on grass and add 50% of that.

So, Fed's addition will be 600 (half of 1200) + 720 + 2017 Stuttgart pts + 2017 Halle pts.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

The formula you are using is wrong.

The points won on grass beginning from 2016 Wimbledon will be added. From the 12 months before that time, they will pick the best result of a player on grass and add 50% of that.

So, Fed's addition will be 600 (half of 1200) + 720 + 2017 Stuttgart pts + 2017 Halle pts.

Actually, we were both wrong.

It's 75% not 50%.

While the seeds are still the top 32 players according to rankings, the seeding order is determined using the formula: ATP Entry System Position points + 100% points earned for all grass court tournaments in the past 12 months + 75% points earned for the best grass court tournament in the 12 months before that.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Championships,_Wimbledon

Also confirmed by

http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/atoz/seeds.html

I will update the numbers in the original post.

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[GameSetAndMath]

Do it, for the top 10 folks.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Do it, for the top 10 folks.

Total grass-court points added for Wimbledon seedings in 2017, minus the 2017 warm-ups.
Murray 2540
Djokovic 1590
Wawrinka 315
Raonic 1425
Nishikori 213.75
Federer 1620
Nadal 33.75
Cilic 630
Thiem 232.5
Tsonga 427.5

So Murray unsurprisingly with the most added points; Fed is second, after Djokovic (thanks to his 2015 win) and Raonic.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

It would be fun to have a "race to SW19" ranking taking these points into account. But for that you need to have a good database.

Instead, let's add the additional points above to the corresponding players' points total as they are now (or rather, as they will stand tomorrow after Fed's IW win). It doesn't mean very much, but can maybe give an impression of where things stand.

Murray 14545
Djokovic 10505
Raonic 6155
Wawrinka 6020
Federer 5925
Nishikori 4694
Nadal 4180
Cilic 4095
Tsonga 3737
Thiem 3652

So, where things stand, things are quite close between Raonic, Wawrinka and Fed. Clearly a top 4 seeding for Roger is now very much possible. One more good tournament before the grass-court season, and decent results in the warm-ups, may be enough to make it a reality.

Coincidentally, with Murray and Djokovic absent, Fed will be #4 seed in Miami.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Because I apparently have nothing better to do, I have tried to create the numbers for the "Race to Wimbledon 2017" for the current top 10. I have done this by adding up the clay-court and grass-court points from 2016 for each of these players, so these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt as there are probably some errors. It also doesn't take into account matters such as non-countable tournaments that might become countable when clay-court results are removed etc. But hopefully it is robust enough to give a relatively accurate picture.

So here are the standings of the "Wimbledon seedings race" going into Miami:

Murray 10840
Djokovic 5895
Federer 5385
Wawrinka 4990
Raonic 4840
Cilic 3795
Tsonga 3152.5
Nishikori 3098.75
Nadal 2038.75
Thiem 1867.5

So Fed is in a good position at the moment, but of course Miami, the upcoming clay-court season results and the grass-court warm-ups (counting twice) will be added to these totals.

So it will be interesting to see what this looks like after Miami. To make it easier to keep the points updated; according to my calculations, the following are the totals of the 2016 results from Wimbledon onwards, plus the extra points used for the seedings (calculated above). Until the beginning of the grass season, the "race to Wimbledon" points can be computed by adding the number below to the 2017 race total.

Murray 10000
Djokovic 5420
Wawrinka 3580
Raonic 4240
Nishikori 2438.75
Federer 2340
Nadal 403.75
Cilic 3470
Thiem 737.5
Tsonga 1897.5

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Because I apparently have nothing better to do

I agree

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Update of the "Wimbledon Seedings Race" after Miami:

Murray 10840
Federer 6385
Djokovic 5895
Wawrinka 5080
Raonic 4885
Cilic 3805
Nishikori 3278.75
Tsonga 3152.5
Nadal 2638.75
Thiem 1877.5

Fed says he won't play any clay-court warm-ups, so there is a chance for others to catch him during this swing ...

I'd expect Djokovic to do so. Wawrinka would have to play a great clay-court season. Raonic and Cilic are not exactly clay-court wonders, so it would be a major surprise if they did so.

Out of the others, who are at least 3000 points behind Roger (plus whatever he earns at RG), the only one for whom it is not unrealistic to overtake Roger's haul is Nadal. But if he takes 4000 points in the clay-court season, it's hard to see Wawrinka also winning a Masters.

So, on balance, I think it is more likely than not that Fed will be in a top 4 spot in this "race" by the beginning of the grass-court season. A good run at the grass warm-ups would then guarantee him a top 4 seeding.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Update after Monte-Carlo. (Remember that the ranking is only within these players who were top 10 at the time that I made the original list; e.g. other players will be above Thiem.)

1. Murray 10930
2. Federer 6385
3. Djokovic 6075
4. Wawrinka 5170
5. Raonic 4885
6. Cilic 3985
7. Nadal 3638.75
8. Nishikori 3278.75
9. Tsonga 3162.5
10. Thiem 1967.5

 

[Carol]

Update after Monte-Carlo. (Remember that the ranking is only within these players who were top 10 at the time that I made the original list; e.g. other players will be above Thiem.)

1. Murray 10930
2. Federer 6385
3. Djokovic 6075
4. Wawrinka 5170
5. Raonic 4885
6. Cilic 3985
7. Nadal 3638.75
8. Nishikori 3278.75
9. Tsonga 3162.5
10. Thiem 1967.5

I understand that Federer is now #4 and Nadal #5

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Update after Monte-Carlo. (Remember that the ranking is only within these players who were top 10 at the time that I made the original list; e.g. other players will be above Thiem.)

1. Murray 10930
2. Federer 6385
3. Djokovic 6075
4. Wawrinka 5170
5. Raonic 4885
6. Cilic 3985
7. Nadal 3638.75
8. Nishikori 3278.75
9. Tsonga 3162.5
10. Thiem 1967.5

I understand that Federer is now #4 and Nadal #5

This is not the rankings thread ...

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[mightyjeditribble]

With Rome over, let's have a last pre-RG version of the "Race to Wimbledon" (for all caveats etc see above), according to my spreadsheet. (Note that Wawrinka, Raonic, Nishikori, Tsonga are still in action in minor tournaments this week, but it won't change very much.)

Murray 11210
Djokovic 7035
Federer 6385
Nadal 5318.75
Raonic 5305
Wawrinka 5270
Cilic 4425
Nishikori 3548.75
Tsonga 3207.5
Thiem 3182.5

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rafa looks set to overtake Roger even in the Wimbledon Race. What is even more worrying is that Fed might even slip out of top 4, if one of Raonic or Wawrinka has a good run at RG.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Rafa looks set to overtake Roger even in the Wimbledon Race. What is even more worrying is that Fed might even slip out of top 4, if one of Raonic or Wawrinka has a good run at RG.

They wont seed Roger lower than 4 ..remember they will use his past grass court tournament results..roger made the semis last year at Wimbledon..he be aight

 

[GameSetAndMath]

They wont seed Roger lower than 4 ..remember they will use his past grass court tournament results..roger made the semis last year at Wimbledon..he be aight

You missed the whole point of this thread. It projects Wimbledon seedings using the grass court point formula.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Rafa looks set to overtake Roger even in the Wimbledon Race. What is even more worrying is that Fed might even slip out of top 4, if one of Raonic or Wawrinka has a good run at RG.

Regardless of what happens in the tournaments this week, Raonic, Wawrinka and Nadal need to reach at least the RG final in order to overtake Roger before Wimbledon.

I'm going to discount the possibility of Raonic reaching the RG final, so the worst-case scenario post-RG for Fed in terms of the seedings would be a Nadal-Wawrinka final. The two are guaranteed to be on opposite sides of the draw, so it is a possibility, although with Stan it's just as likely that he goes out in the first round ...

The thing to remember is that, after RG, there will still be 1500 points in play for this purpose - as 2017 grass warm-ups will count double (once for the current ranking, and once for the additional points). Wawrinka has such a bad record on grass that it's hard to imagine Fed will not considerably outdo him in this respect - particularly considering that Murray, Nadal, Raonic, Cilic, Tsonga, Dimitrov etc are all also entered at Queens.

On the other hand, Raonic has a good chance of doing well at Queens (the only grass-court warm-up he has entered), but is unlikely to do that well at RG.

So, while the possibility exists that Raonic or Wawrinka could overtake Fed in the seedings, it seems more likely that the top 4 seeds will be the "Big 4".

Let's have another look after RG!

 

[the AntiPusher]

You missed the whole point of this thread. It projects Wimbledon seedings using the grass court point formula.

My ba'ad..thx

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Regardless of what happens in the tournaments this week, Raonic, Wawrinka and Nadal need to reach at least the RG final in order to overtake Roger before Wimbledon.

I'm going to discount the possibility of Raonic reaching the RG final, so the worst-case scenario post-RG for Fed in terms of the seedings would be a Nadal-Wawrinka final. The two are guaranteed to be on opposite sides of the draw, so it is a possibility, although with Stan it's just as likely that he goes out in the first round ...

The thing to remember is that, after RG, there will still be 1500 points in play for this purpose - as 2017 grass warm-ups will count double (once for the current ranking, and once for the additional points). Wawrinka has such a bad record on grass that it's hard to imagine Fed will not considerably outdo him in this respect - particularly considering that Murray, Nadal, Raonic, Cilic, Tsonga, Dimitrov etc are all also entered at Queens.

On the other hand, Raonic has a good chance of doing well at Queens (the only grass-court warm-up he has entered), but is unlikely to do that well at RG.

So, while the possibility exists that Raonic or Wawrinka could overtake Fed in the seedings, it seems more likely that the top 4 seeds will be the "Big 4".

Let's have another look after RG!

Ya, it is hard to imagine big 4 not being the same as to 4 in Wimbledon, but it is getting little too close for comfort for Roger than expected.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Ya, it is hard to imagine big 4 not being the same as to 4 in Wimbledon, but it is getting little too close for comfort for Roger than expected.

I suppose I was always a bit more sceptical on this as on other things (e.g. RG participation) than you were. It's still fairly likely that he will make the top 4 seeding - and if he doesn't, we should remember where he was seeded for AO2017 ...