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I started writing this for Tennis Frontier, but decided to wait until the new forums opened up (looks great, Britbox - thanks for your hard work). Also, if you don't want to go through my dubious ruminations and possibly erroneous calculations, skip to the Summary at the end).
Preamble: A Crazy Year
As we near the end of the first half of 2017--the mid-point being somewhere between Roland Garros and Wimbledon--we can both reflect both on a first-haf full of surprises, most notably the resurrection of “Fedal” and the struggles of Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, and also on what is to come, in this context who might be #1 this year. As of this writing, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have won all five big tournaments: one Slam (Federer) and four Masters (two each). Murray has been coasting along as the reigning #1 , despite the fact that through Madrid he is an anemic #11 in the Race to London rankings, behind journeyman Albert Ramos-Vinolas. Djokovic is even worse, coming in at #16. But the two are still ranked #1 and #2 in the ATP Rankings, and Murray is ahead of Novak by over 3000 points and #3 Stan Wawrinka by almost 5000. But the question is: how long will it last?
Longer than one might think, given Andy's level of play. Most of Andy's ranking points are in the second half of the year, with his win at Wimbledon (2000), two Masters (2000), two ATP 500 titles (1000), and the WTF (1500). On the other hand, Djokovic doesn't have a huge number of points to defend, and Rafa and Roger almost none.
When should we start looking for a possible regime change? If the Big Four (who seem like the only candidates for the year-end #1) do not win another tournament, their ranking points would start converging later in the year, with certain "pressure points" - moments of possibility in which we might see a shift at the top of the rankings. Let's take a look.
The Big Four Convergence
Roger has no more points to defend after Wimbledon with 4045 points in the Race to London rankings. Meaning, he'll end the year with at least 4045 ranking points; last year that would have been good enough for #6. In other words, if Roger stops playing for the rest of the year, he'll still finish #6 (or so). Nadal played until Shanghai and then not after, with 4745 Race points. He too has a guaranteed spot in the top 5 or 6 (and this doesn't even touch the fact that he only has 270 points to defend at Rome and Roland Garros, so his Race points may increase to as much as about 7500 through clay season). Novak has lost a ton of points and will continue to drop fast throughout the year, as will Andy but a bit later (again, assuming no more points earned).
So with Rafa and Roger with more “safe points,” at what point might they converge? Novak drops below Rafa when Roland Garros comes off, although not below Roger until Canada. Andy doesn't fall below Rafa until Shanghai in October, and falls below Roger a bit later at Paris.
Remember, this is assuming either no new points which, barring no major injuries, will obviously not be the case, or completely equal play from here on out. But there is still a ton of tennis before us, and though Nadal will have a rather larger lead in the Race rankings after clay season is finished, it is also his stronger segment of the year, with the other three all have much stronger resumes in the second half.
Rafa is doing exactly what he needs to have a chance at #1: sweeping a weak and troubled clay season. He's already won 2500 points from titles and has a chance for another 3000 and thus, as I said above, has a really good chance of being #1 at least for part of the year. If he wins Rome and RG, he'll be at 8105 points heading into the second half of the year, with only a few hundred points coming off later in the year – and thus probably good enough to finish in the top 2. Even if he doesn't win both Rome and RG, he'll have accrued enough points in the first half that even just moderate success in the second half and he's a virtual lock for the top 4, is still a great candidate for the top 2, and a solid chance at year-end #1. But he can't rest on his clay accomplishments; depending upon how he does at Rome and Roland Garros, he probably needs to gain another 3-5,000 points in the second half to be year-end #1.
Roger has opted out of clay season almost entirely, which makes his performance in the second half all the more important. He should gain a few points at Roland Garros, but for him Wimbledon reigns supreme, and then the later hard-courts. Roger probably doesn't have a shot at #1 until the US Open, and then only if he wins either Wimbledon or the USO, does reasonably well in other tournaments, and Rafa doesn't win more than a single Slam.
Andy's #1 ranking is safe until Wimbledon. If he has a poor remainder of clay season and Rafa sweeps, Rafa can take over #1 at Wimbledon. If Andy earns back a chunk of his upcoming 2700 clay and early grass points – 1500 will be enough no matter how well Rafa plays – he can hold Rafa at bay and go into Wimbledon ranked #1. To put that into clearer numbers:
If we take off all upcoming points including Wimbledon, Andy has 7090 protected points going into Wimbledon to Rafa's 4955 - those numbers assume entry into Rome, RG, and Wimbledon for both players. That means Andy has a +2135 point advantage and thus Rafa would need to out-play Andy by 2140 points between now and then to finish Wimbledon as the world #1. With 5500 points available (two Slams, one Masters, and one ATP 500), that seems very possible if not guaranteed. For that to happen, a few things need to happen for Rafa to get to #1 at Wimbledon: 1) He needs to sweep the rest of clay, or at least win Roland Garros and do well at Rome, 2) Andy needs to struggle during clay, and 3) Rafa needs to do close to as well as Andy at Wimbledon.
(In case you're wondering, if Andy loses the #1 ranking after Wimbledon, he'll be at 37 weeks total, just behind Ilie Nastase at 40 weeks).
Who knows with Novak. The good news is that he has far fewer points to defend later in the year. The bad news is that he's not earning back a lot of his ridiculous first half haul from last year. Novak is probably going to slip to #3 before clay season is done, and if he doesn't start playing better, will slip further during the North American tour, and conceivably could fall out of the top 5 by year's end. But unless Novak completely transforms his season, chances are he won't have a good shot at #1 until the first half of 2018, when he gets a chance to re-do his terrible first half performance this year.
Summary
There will be two big “pressure points” in which the top of the rankings could see a shake-up. The first is during Wimbledon, when Rafa will have a chance to overtake Andy (having almost certainly passed Novak after Roland Garros). We'll have a better sense of the likelihood of this after clay season is through, and how much more ground Rafa has made up. Regardless, Rafa will almost certainly have surpassed Novak by that point. The second is after the US Open, when the #1 ranking could be up for grabs, with Murray, Nadal, and Federer all vying for year-end #1, with Djokovic a dim possibility. Regardless of how things unfold, it seems likely that the year-end #1 will be decided late in the year, possibly at the World Tour Finals.
Preamble: A Crazy Year
As we near the end of the first half of 2017--the mid-point being somewhere between Roland Garros and Wimbledon--we can both reflect both on a first-haf full of surprises, most notably the resurrection of “Fedal” and the struggles of Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, and also on what is to come, in this context who might be #1 this year. As of this writing, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have won all five big tournaments: one Slam (Federer) and four Masters (two each). Murray has been coasting along as the reigning #1 , despite the fact that through Madrid he is an anemic #11 in the Race to London rankings, behind journeyman Albert Ramos-Vinolas. Djokovic is even worse, coming in at #16. But the two are still ranked #1 and #2 in the ATP Rankings, and Murray is ahead of Novak by over 3000 points and #3 Stan Wawrinka by almost 5000. But the question is: how long will it last?
Longer than one might think, given Andy's level of play. Most of Andy's ranking points are in the second half of the year, with his win at Wimbledon (2000), two Masters (2000), two ATP 500 titles (1000), and the WTF (1500). On the other hand, Djokovic doesn't have a huge number of points to defend, and Rafa and Roger almost none.
When should we start looking for a possible regime change? If the Big Four (who seem like the only candidates for the year-end #1) do not win another tournament, their ranking points would start converging later in the year, with certain "pressure points" - moments of possibility in which we might see a shift at the top of the rankings. Let's take a look.
The Big Four Convergence
Roger has no more points to defend after Wimbledon with 4045 points in the Race to London rankings. Meaning, he'll end the year with at least 4045 ranking points; last year that would have been good enough for #6. In other words, if Roger stops playing for the rest of the year, he'll still finish #6 (or so). Nadal played until Shanghai and then not after, with 4745 Race points. He too has a guaranteed spot in the top 5 or 6 (and this doesn't even touch the fact that he only has 270 points to defend at Rome and Roland Garros, so his Race points may increase to as much as about 7500 through clay season). Novak has lost a ton of points and will continue to drop fast throughout the year, as will Andy but a bit later (again, assuming no more points earned).
So with Rafa and Roger with more “safe points,” at what point might they converge? Novak drops below Rafa when Roland Garros comes off, although not below Roger until Canada. Andy doesn't fall below Rafa until Shanghai in October, and falls below Roger a bit later at Paris.
Remember, this is assuming either no new points which, barring no major injuries, will obviously not be the case, or completely equal play from here on out. But there is still a ton of tennis before us, and though Nadal will have a rather larger lead in the Race rankings after clay season is finished, it is also his stronger segment of the year, with the other three all have much stronger resumes in the second half.
Rafa is doing exactly what he needs to have a chance at #1: sweeping a weak and troubled clay season. He's already won 2500 points from titles and has a chance for another 3000 and thus, as I said above, has a really good chance of being #1 at least for part of the year. If he wins Rome and RG, he'll be at 8105 points heading into the second half of the year, with only a few hundred points coming off later in the year – and thus probably good enough to finish in the top 2. Even if he doesn't win both Rome and RG, he'll have accrued enough points in the first half that even just moderate success in the second half and he's a virtual lock for the top 4, is still a great candidate for the top 2, and a solid chance at year-end #1. But he can't rest on his clay accomplishments; depending upon how he does at Rome and Roland Garros, he probably needs to gain another 3-5,000 points in the second half to be year-end #1.
Roger has opted out of clay season almost entirely, which makes his performance in the second half all the more important. He should gain a few points at Roland Garros, but for him Wimbledon reigns supreme, and then the later hard-courts. Roger probably doesn't have a shot at #1 until the US Open, and then only if he wins either Wimbledon or the USO, does reasonably well in other tournaments, and Rafa doesn't win more than a single Slam.
Andy's #1 ranking is safe until Wimbledon. If he has a poor remainder of clay season and Rafa sweeps, Rafa can take over #1 at Wimbledon. If Andy earns back a chunk of his upcoming 2700 clay and early grass points – 1500 will be enough no matter how well Rafa plays – he can hold Rafa at bay and go into Wimbledon ranked #1. To put that into clearer numbers:
If we take off all upcoming points including Wimbledon, Andy has 7090 protected points going into Wimbledon to Rafa's 4955 - those numbers assume entry into Rome, RG, and Wimbledon for both players. That means Andy has a +2135 point advantage and thus Rafa would need to out-play Andy by 2140 points between now and then to finish Wimbledon as the world #1. With 5500 points available (two Slams, one Masters, and one ATP 500), that seems very possible if not guaranteed. For that to happen, a few things need to happen for Rafa to get to #1 at Wimbledon: 1) He needs to sweep the rest of clay, or at least win Roland Garros and do well at Rome, 2) Andy needs to struggle during clay, and 3) Rafa needs to do close to as well as Andy at Wimbledon.
(In case you're wondering, if Andy loses the #1 ranking after Wimbledon, he'll be at 37 weeks total, just behind Ilie Nastase at 40 weeks).
Who knows with Novak. The good news is that he has far fewer points to defend later in the year. The bad news is that he's not earning back a lot of his ridiculous first half haul from last year. Novak is probably going to slip to #3 before clay season is done, and if he doesn't start playing better, will slip further during the North American tour, and conceivably could fall out of the top 5 by year's end. But unless Novak completely transforms his season, chances are he won't have a good shot at #1 until the first half of 2018, when he gets a chance to re-do his terrible first half performance this year.
Summary
There will be two big “pressure points” in which the top of the rankings could see a shake-up. The first is during Wimbledon, when Rafa will have a chance to overtake Andy (having almost certainly passed Novak after Roland Garros). We'll have a better sense of the likelihood of this after clay season is through, and how much more ground Rafa has made up. Regardless, Rafa will almost certainly have surpassed Novak by that point. The second is after the US Open, when the #1 ranking could be up for grabs, with Murray, Nadal, and Federer all vying for year-end #1, with Djokovic a dim possibility. Regardless of how things unfold, it seems likely that the year-end #1 will be decided late in the year, possibly at the World Tour Finals.
