Scottish Independence

[britbox]

Financial Times are reporting today that a second Scottish referendum is looking inevitable.

https://www.ft.com/content/3edbbc7e-04ea-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

Not quite the "once in a generation" vote, you'd normally expect.

 

[Nekro]

Financial Times are reporting today that a second Scottish referendum is looking inevitable.

https://www.ft.com/content/3edbbc7e-04ea-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

Not quite the "once in a generation" vote, you'd normally expect.

so there was bribery, then last time there was the Barnett formula, i'm curious this time what trick they will come up with to keep the Scots in the union.

 

[britbox]

Barnett Formula goes back to the 70s. Laughable thing is, the UK will reclaim a lot of indepedence back from the EU and the Scottish Nationalists will just give it away again if they win a referendum.

 

[Nekro]

Barnett Formula goes back to the 70s. Laughable thing is, the UK will reclaim a lot of indepedence back from the EU and the Scottish Nationalists will just give it away again if they win a referendum.

I read up on the Barnett formula recently but both sides, the nationalists and the unionists gave many pros and cons

Like in this new referendum case.

The only side i haven't heard is a legit Tory voter, all i'm hearing atm on the net is the libdem/labour doomsayers, I hear almost zero voices about how great the Brexit will be or that that independence will be good for Britain. Especially with those data about the companies moving and stuff pouring in.

I don't know tbh if they will win a new referendum, the Scottish unionists are still much louder, and they're backed up by the English, welsh, etc unionists.

So really dunno but it's an interesting and entertaining mess for sure

 

[britbox]

I read up on the Barnett formula recently but both sides, the nationalists and the unionists gave many pros and cons

Like in this new referendum case.

The only side i haven't heard is a legit Tory voter, all i'm hearing atm on the net is the libdem/labour doomsayers, I hear almost zero voices about how great the Brexit will be or that that independence will be good for Britain. Especially with those data about the companies moving and stuff pouring in.

I don't know tbh if they will win a new referendum, the Scottish unionists are still much louder, and they're backed up by the English, welsh, etc unionists.

So really dunno but it's an interesting and entertaining mess for sure

I was strongly in favour of Brexit but looking at it from a long game point of view. There is bound to be some short-term economic hurt but I think it'll be better in the long run. Most of the Armageddon talk before the vote hasn't materialised to date... but sure there will be some pain when the UK leaves initially.

You'll be hearing on the net, non-stop stuff about Brexit because a very vocal hardcore won't accept the decision, a bit like the constant noise about Donald Trump. Considering the amount of noise, you'd assume 80% of people voted against both.

I think a new referendum would be closer still, but like you, still think the unionist vote would sneak it. Every single voter has known nothing different than a United Kingdom... it's a big step into the dark if they vote to leave. I think they'd have less independence - they wouldn't have control of their own currency for a start, if they intend on keeping pound sterling... and if they join the EU has a separate nation state they'd be giving up a lot of control over things they'd only just got back.

 

[Federberg]

Well this was one of my primary reasons for voting remain. As I said at the time Brexit would lead to the break up of the UK. Coming home to roost now. And frankly I don't blame them. They voted overwhelmingly to remain, one of the reasons the Scots have wanted more independence is that they feel like an after thought. If PM May thought she could decide for Scotland when she has virtually no mandate over them then she'll learn a harsh lesson now. It's ironic that Conservatives will end up being responsible for the break up of the Union!

 

[Federberg]

I think a new referendum would be closer still, but like you, still think the unionist vote would sneak it. Every single voter has known nothing different than a United Kingdom... it's a big step into the dark if they vote to leave. I think they'd have less independence - they wouldn't have control of their own currency for a start, if they intend on keeping pound sterling... and if they join the EU has a separate nation state they'd be giving up a lot of control over things they'd only just got back.

I have real doubts about that. Far more likely that the Scots see the Brexit vote as being a British thing and want to do the opposite. Your point about greater independence away from the EU is utterly irrelevant to the Scots. As far as they're concerned it's either being subject to EU laws or English laws, I have a feeling they'll go for the latter

 

[britbox]

I have real doubts about that. Far more likely that the Scots see the Brexit vote as being a British thing and want to do the opposite. Your point about greater independence away from the EU is utterly irrelevant to the Scots. As far as they're concerned it's either being subject to EU laws or English laws, I have a feeling they'll go for the latter

Scotland have their own laws and legal system already. The Scottish parliament can pass legislation without Westminster. The Scots are British... but if you vote to remain in the UK then you can't have your cake and eat it twice. The UK voted Brexit and the Scots voted to remain as part of the UK.

I still think the unionist vote would carry. There was a 10% difference... it would be closer next time around.

The price of oil has plummeted since the last referendum. Would be interesting to see Sturgeon and Salmond's budget figures next time around.

 

[Federberg]

Scotland have their own laws and legal system already. The Scottish parliament can pass legislation without Westminster. The Scots are British... but if you vote to remain in the UK then you can't have your cake and eat it twice. The UK voted Brexit and the Scots voted to remain as part of the UK.

I still think the unionist vote would carry. There was a 10% difference... it would be closer next time around.

The price of oil has plummeted since the last referendum. Would be interesting to see Sturgeon and Salmond's budget figures next time around.

Lol! The Scots voted to remain in the EU. You're parsing there. Voting to remain as part of the UK in the EU was merely incidental. Anyway let's see what happens

 

[britbox]

Lol! The Scots voted to remain in the EU. You're parsing there. Voting to remain as part of the UK in the EU was merely incidental. Anyway let's see what happens

So what? London voted to remain part of the EU too... incidentally with a higher population than the whole of Scotland. The UK overall decision carries just as it does with any UK election or referendum.

 

[Federberg]

So everything mate. As Sturgeon pointed out in her speech today, everyone assumed the UK would be voting to remain. That changes how Scots will view another referendum. They have every right to test the water again given Englands decision to leave

 

[britbox]

So everything mate. As Sturgeon pointed out in her speech today, everyone assumed the UK would be voting to remain. That changes hope Scots will view another referendum. They have every right to test the water again given Englands decision to leave

The UK's decision to leave, of which Scotland are a part of.... and voted to remain a part of. I'd suggest the vote to remain in the UK was far more convoluted than a single guess that the UK would remain part of the EU.

Anyway, it's a numbers game, so...

38% voted to leave the EU in any event.... not an insignificant number.

Which leaves the remain in the UK camp, left to find an additional 12% from the remaining 62% - if we mapped the numbers directly of course, which is probably wrong in itself. I think UK-remain would win.

 

[britbox]

Give Northern Ireland a referendum too. Despite the anti-Brexit vote, do you think they'd vote to leave the UK? I seriously doubt it given the centuries depth of unionism in NI.

 

[Federberg]

The UK's decision to leave, of which Scotland are a part of.... and voted to remain a part of. I'd suggest the vote to remain in the UK was far more convoluted than a single guess that the UK would remain part of the EU.

Anyway, it's a numbers game, so...

38% voted to leave the EU in any event.... not an insignificant number.

Which leaves the remain in the UK camp, left to find an additional 12% from the remaining 62% - if we mapped the numbers directly of course, which is probably wrong in itself. I think UK-remain would win.

Yes I suspect there would be swapping around. But given what my Scottish friends are saying... they have very little tolerance that their fate is being decided by English voters. Even the ones who wanted to remain before are pissed off

 

[Federberg]

Give Northern Ireland a referendum too. Despite the anti-Brexit vote, do you think they'd vote to leave the UK? I seriously doubt it given the centuries depth of unionism in NI.

Not the same thing at all and I think you know that

 

[britbox]

Not the same thing at all and I think you know that

It's not the same, agreed... but the point wasn't you can't directly map a Brexit vote to a UK-leave vote either. There still is a significant unionism movement in Scotland though and one which you shouldn't dismiss too lightly.

Apart from that Salmond and Sturgeon put economic scenarios forward based on Oil being priced far more highly than it is now. Those figures no longer add up. They've got a 10% differential to turn around with a much poorer economic outlook than they had at the last referendum.

 

[britbox]

Yes I suspect there would be swapping around. But given what my Scottish friends are saying... they have very little tolerance that their fate is being decided by English voters. Even the ones who wanted to remain before are pissed off

England has more voters... it is what it is. I know many Northern English cities don't like Conservative governments largely being elected by those in the south being foisted upon them either. The only difference being a line somebody drew on a map.

 

[Federberg]

It's not the same, agreed... but the point wasn't you can't directly map a Brexit vote to a UK-leave vote either. There still is a significant unionism movement in Scotland though and one which you shouldn't dismiss too lightly.

Apart from that Salmond and Sturgeon put economic scenarios forward based on Oil being priced far more highly than it is now. Those figures no longer add up. They've got a 10% differential to turn around with a much poorer economic outlook than they had at the last referendum.

I agree the economic scenarios are overly optimistic. And for the record I don't want Scotland to leave. I also agree that people will swap around their vote in comparison to the first referendum vote. But you're hoping for a really big swing mate. We shall see. But my point remains... this is the natural consequence of Brexit and one of my fears in the first place as I'm sure you'll recall

 

[Federberg]

England has more voters... it is what it is. I know many Northern English cities don't like Conservative governments largely being elected by those in the south being foisted upon them either. The only difference being a line somebody drew on a map.

Lol! It's a bit more than a line mate. Remember Hadrian's Wall??

 

[britbox]

I'm not hoping for a big swing.... UK-remain won by 10% last time. The SNP are hoping for a big swing. I think they'll get a swing but I don't think they'll carry it. Regardless of Brexit, the economics have completely changed for the worse for Scotland since the last one.

I'm all for giving them the opportunity to vote though... even though I hope the union remains intact.