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The fact that no player born in 1989 or later has not only not won a Slam, but hasn't won a "big title" (Slam, World Tour Finals, Masters), is rather alarming. The youngest big titleists are Marin Cilic and Juan Martin del Potro, both of whom were born in 1988 and turn 29 years old later this year. This is an unprecedented situation, at least in Open Era history.
But let's not belabor just how bad the younger generations are, especially those players born in 1989-93ish. Instead, I wanted to ask the question: At What Age Did Slam Winners first win a big title?
First, a caveat. The importance of different titles has changed over the years, which is reflected in the fact the names of different tournaments has changed as the ATP tour has changed. But there is some degree of similarity between, say, the Grand Prix tournaments of the 1970s and the current ATP Tour Masters 1000 tournaments. For the sake of this inquiry, all equivalent tournaments will be considered under the umbrella "big titles" - including current tournaments and their predecessors. This includes Slams, World Tour Finals and other year-end championships, Golden Cup, WCT Finals, Masters, Grand Prix, etc.
OK, let's cut to the chase. I looked at all multi-Slam winners of the Open Era, in two categories depending upon number of Slams won. Below are the oldest age at which players won their first big title:
6+ Slam winners (12): 20 years old
2-4 Slam winners (15): 28 years old
The first was a bit surprising. There are 12 players who won 6+ Slams during the Open Era, and all won their first big title at age 20 or younger. This is quite different from first Slam, as Ivan Lendl didn't win his first until age 24. In other words, there's not a lot of play in the twelve precedents: ALL twelve won a big title at a very young age (I didn't include John Newcombe, Rod Laver, or Ken Rosewall because they all began well before the Open Era began, so it is difficult to ascertain when they won their first "big" title).
The second category is quite old, but only because of one player: Stan Wawrinka. Other than him, the oldest age is 24 (Patrick Rafter), with the possible exception of Arthur Ashe, who won his first Slam at age 25, but it is unclear if he won a big title before that. But the main takeaway is that Stan set a new precedent, effectively demolishing all "rules" about when a multi-Slam winner can start winning big. That said, the vast majority of 2-4 Slam winners won their first big title by age 24-25.
So let's look at this in the context of current young players. Below is a list of some of the better active young players with their current (as of 5/9) age:
27: Kei Nishikori
26: Milos Raonic, David Goffin
25: Grigor Dimitrov, Pablo Carreno Busta
24: Jack Sock, Bernard Tomic, Diego Schwartzman
23: Dominic Thiem, Lucas Pouille, Jiri Vesely
22: Nick Kyrgios, Kyle Edmund, Thiago Monteiro, Adam Pavlasek
21: Daniil Medvedev, Yoshihito Nishioka
20: Alexander Zverev, Borna Coric, Karen Khachanov, Hyeon Chung, Jared Donaldson, Ernesto Escobedo
19: Frances Tiafoe, Andrey Rublev, Taylor Fritz, Alex de Minaur, Alexander Bublik, Stefan Kozlov, Reilly Opelka, Akira Santillan, Michael Mmoh
18: Casper Ruud, Duckhee Lee, Denis Shapovalov, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Mikael Ymer, Daniel Altmaier, Corentin Moutet, Jay Clarke
16: Felix Auger Aliassime
So think about this: Every player age 21 and older--and soon to include Khachanov, Donaldson, and Chung--is disqualified from the precedents of the Open Era. If any of those players are going to be all-time greats, they will have to set a new precedent on the order of Stan Wawrinka, that is "be the Wawrinka of all-time greats."
This also means that all of those players age 20, are "on notice." Three of them turn 21 within a month or two, all but Zverev turn 21 this year. So it may be that come December, only Alex Zverev still can reach the benchmark set by the twelve previous 6+ Slam winners, and win his first big title before his 21st birthday next April.
We'll be watching...
But let's not belabor just how bad the younger generations are, especially those players born in 1989-93ish. Instead, I wanted to ask the question: At What Age Did Slam Winners first win a big title?
First, a caveat. The importance of different titles has changed over the years, which is reflected in the fact the names of different tournaments has changed as the ATP tour has changed. But there is some degree of similarity between, say, the Grand Prix tournaments of the 1970s and the current ATP Tour Masters 1000 tournaments. For the sake of this inquiry, all equivalent tournaments will be considered under the umbrella "big titles" - including current tournaments and their predecessors. This includes Slams, World Tour Finals and other year-end championships, Golden Cup, WCT Finals, Masters, Grand Prix, etc.
OK, let's cut to the chase. I looked at all multi-Slam winners of the Open Era, in two categories depending upon number of Slams won. Below are the oldest age at which players won their first big title:
6+ Slam winners (12): 20 years old
2-4 Slam winners (15): 28 years old
The first was a bit surprising. There are 12 players who won 6+ Slams during the Open Era, and all won their first big title at age 20 or younger. This is quite different from first Slam, as Ivan Lendl didn't win his first until age 24. In other words, there's not a lot of play in the twelve precedents: ALL twelve won a big title at a very young age (I didn't include John Newcombe, Rod Laver, or Ken Rosewall because they all began well before the Open Era began, so it is difficult to ascertain when they won their first "big" title).
The second category is quite old, but only because of one player: Stan Wawrinka. Other than him, the oldest age is 24 (Patrick Rafter), with the possible exception of Arthur Ashe, who won his first Slam at age 25, but it is unclear if he won a big title before that. But the main takeaway is that Stan set a new precedent, effectively demolishing all "rules" about when a multi-Slam winner can start winning big. That said, the vast majority of 2-4 Slam winners won their first big title by age 24-25.
So let's look at this in the context of current young players. Below is a list of some of the better active young players with their current (as of 5/9) age:
27: Kei Nishikori
26: Milos Raonic, David Goffin
25: Grigor Dimitrov, Pablo Carreno Busta
24: Jack Sock, Bernard Tomic, Diego Schwartzman
23: Dominic Thiem, Lucas Pouille, Jiri Vesely
22: Nick Kyrgios, Kyle Edmund, Thiago Monteiro, Adam Pavlasek
21: Daniil Medvedev, Yoshihito Nishioka
20: Alexander Zverev, Borna Coric, Karen Khachanov, Hyeon Chung, Jared Donaldson, Ernesto Escobedo
19: Frances Tiafoe, Andrey Rublev, Taylor Fritz, Alex de Minaur, Alexander Bublik, Stefan Kozlov, Reilly Opelka, Akira Santillan, Michael Mmoh
18: Casper Ruud, Duckhee Lee, Denis Shapovalov, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Mikael Ymer, Daniel Altmaier, Corentin Moutet, Jay Clarke
16: Felix Auger Aliassime
So think about this: Every player age 21 and older--and soon to include Khachanov, Donaldson, and Chung--is disqualified from the precedents of the Open Era. If any of those players are going to be all-time greats, they will have to set a new precedent on the order of Stan Wawrinka, that is "be the Wawrinka of all-time greats."
This also means that all of those players age 20, are "on notice." Three of them turn 21 within a month or two, all but Zverev turn 21 this year. So it may be that come December, only Alex Zverev still can reach the benchmark set by the twelve previous 6+ Slam winners, and win his first big title before his 21st birthday next April.
We'll be watching...
