[Blog] NextGen 2016 in Review and 2017 Outlook (UPDATED WITH PART 2)

[El Dude]

This is in two parts, with Part One, detailing the players born in 1993 to 1996, here.

Here's Part Two, with players born 1997 to 2000: The Sun Also Rises.

Please feel free to comment/discuss!

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

RE: [Blog] NextGen 2016 in Review and 2017 Outlook

Thiem is gifted but it comes only in flashes. Most of the time he is playing from the baseline and trying to hit the ball very hard with no proper game.

Kyrgios seems the most talented to me. Kyrgios has a better game as was evident vs Nadal at Wimbledon 2014. He will come of age and will give his fans results sometime in the coming 1-2 years.
If he can do that he will be an elite for a good 3-4 years at least.

No one else has any good prospect IMHO.

 

[Puppet Master]

RE: [Blog] NextGen 2016 in Review and 2017 Outlook

Thiem is gifted but it comes only in flashes. Most of the time he is playing from the baseline and trying to hit the ball very hard with no proper game.

Kyrgios seems the most talented to me. Kyrgios has a better game as was evident vs Nadal at Wimbledon 2014. He will come of age and will give his fans results sometime in the coming 1-2 years.
If he can do that he will be an elite for a good 3-4 years at least.

No one else has any good prospect IMHO.

Thiem is super talented, but his return game really needs some work. He has a lot of similarities with Stan, but he isn't as dangerous yet. Results will come eventually for him, I just fear it will be too late.
I do disagree with you about Kyrgios. His game can look quite fancy, but he is too one dimensional. Not to mention how crazy he is. His attitude is pathetic.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

RE: [Blog] NextGen 2016 in Review and 2017 Outlook

Thiem is gifted but it comes only in flashes. Most of the time he is playing from the baseline and trying to hit the ball very hard with no proper game.

Kyrgios seems the most talented to me. Kyrgios has a better game as was evident vs Nadal at Wimbledon 2014. He will come of age and will give his fans results sometime in the coming 1-2 years.
If he can do that he will be an elite for a good 3-4 years at least.

No one else has any good prospect IMHO.

Thiem is super talented, but his return game really needs some work. He has a lot of similarities with Stan, but he isn't as dangerous yet. Results will come eventually for him, I just fear it will be too late.
I do disagree with you about Kyrgios. His game can look quite fancy, but he is too one dimensional. Not to mention how crazy he is. His attitude is pathetic.

Being one-dimensional doesn't hold you back if you make your game really effective. Sampras was one-dimensional too. But, did it keep him from winning all his Wimbledon finals? Kyrgios has the ability to play a solid aggressive game. Didn't you see that against Nadal at Wimbledon? Roger was immature too at once stage although not to this extent. Give him some time.

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[Puppet Master]

RE: [Blog] NextGen 2016 in Review and 2017 Outlook

Thiem is gifted but it comes only in flashes. Most of the time he is playing from the baseline and trying to hit the ball very hard with no proper game.

Kyrgios seems the most talented to me. Kyrgios has a better game as was evident vs Nadal at Wimbledon 2014. He will come of age and will give his fans results sometime in the coming 1-2 years.
If he can do that he will be an elite for a good 3-4 years at least.

No one else has any good prospect IMHO.

Thiem is super talented, but his return game really needs some work. He has a lot of similarities with Stan, but he isn't as dangerous yet. Results will come eventually for him, I just fear it will be too late.
I do disagree with you about Kyrgios. His game can look quite fancy, but he is too one dimensional. Not to mention how crazy he is. His attitude is pathetic.

Being one-dimensional doesn't hold you back if you make your game really effective. Sampras was one-dimensional too. But, did it keep him from winning all his Wimbledon finals? Kyrgios has the ability to play a solid aggressive game. Didn't you see that against Nadal at Wimbledon? Roger was immature too at once stage although not to this extent. Give him some time.

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Sampras wasn't one dimensional at all like Karlovic or Isner. I don't know if you watched him ( I didn't watch him too much unfortunately) but he was a great athlete for a guy his size, plus he had a decent return game even on those faster courts from his era. Very strong and sharp mentally, calm and collected with excellent shot selection.

However look at Kyrgios, just watch his damn showing in Shanghai this year and you'll know exactly what I'm talking about. The guy is disgustingly serve dependant and if he isn't blasting first serves at 70% he literally tanks sets. As soon as someone becomes problematic to deal with from the baseline he tries to hit some crazy dropshot, or a between the legs surprise shot which of course doesn't work and he is stuck there arguing with the umpire or whatever he does.
You said it yourself, you are free to support anyone you like, I just think Nick is a terrible person and not that good of a player, despite his high ranking.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

RE: [Blog] NextGen 2016 in Review and 2017 Outlook

Thiem is super talented, but his return game really needs some work. He has a lot of similarities with Stan, but he isn't as dangerous yet. Results will come eventually for him, I just fear it will be too late.
I do disagree with you about Kyrgios. His game can look quite fancy, but he is too one dimensional. Not to mention how crazy he is. His attitude is pathetic.

Being one-dimensional doesn't hold you back if you make your game really effective. Sampras was one-dimensional too. But, did it keep him from winning all his Wimbledon finals? Kyrgios has the ability to play a solid aggressive game. Didn't you see that against Nadal at Wimbledon? Roger was immature too at once stage although not to this extent. Give him some time.

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Sampras wasn't one dimensional at all like Karlovic or Isner. I don't know if you watched him ( I didn't watch him too much unfortunately) but he was a great athlete for a guy his size, plus he had a decent return game even on those faster courts from his era. Very strong and sharp mentally, calm and collected with excellent shot selection.

However look at Kyrgios, just watch his damn showing in Shanghai this year and you'll know exactly what I'm talking about. The guy is disgustingly serve dependant and if he isn't blasting first serves at 70% he literally tanks sets. As soon as someone becomes problematic to deal with from the baseline he tries to hit some crazy dropshot, or a between the legs surprise shot which of course doesn't work and he is stuck there arguing with the umpire or whatever he does.
You said it yourself, you are free to support anyone you like, I just think Nick is a terrible person and not that good of a player, despite his high ranking.

Certainly you are free to support anyone you like. Its just that I can't agree upon the point you make of kyrgios being heavily serve-dependent. He isn't an Isner or karlovic to make two slam QFs relying on his serve alone. He doesn't serve that big. Once again I would allude to his match against Nadal at Wimbledon to say that he has enough shot making to make a complete player. Except that we have to give him some more time to develop his ground game.

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[El Dude]

RE: [Blog] NextGen 2016 in Review and 2017 Outlook

It is a spectrum. Kyrgios isn't as one-dimensional as Isner/Karlovic, but clearly more so than Sampras. He's more in a middle group, with players like Raonic and Ivanisevic, in my opinion, although with less of a serve and maybe a tad less one-dimensional than even those guys.

So if we put it on a spectrum of +5 to -5, based upon how much of a player's game is reliant upon serve, we can see Karlovic as a +5 and Rafa as a -5. I'd put Isner at +4 in that he's a better player minus his serve than Ivo, but still 90% reliant upon it. Players like Raonic and Ivanisevic are +3 to +4 (I think Milos is moving from +4 to +3), Kyrgios as either +2 or +3, Sampras as +2, Federer as +1, etc.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

What do you guys think about Alexander Zverev's level of talent?

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[Front242]

Why didn't Kokkinakis apply for protected ranking?! Apparently unranked now.

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2016/12/kokkinakis-return-date-uncertain-says-hewitt/62703/

 

[El Dude]

What do you guys think about Alexander Zverev's level of talent?

I don't feel like I have the knowledge to adequately assess his on-court skill set, but what I see--based upon my limited knowledge, as well as his age-relative ranking and performance record--is that he has a range of outcomes from being a very good second tier player (ala Berdych, Tsonga) to a lesser great ala Becker and Edberg. I don't see him being a Sampras, Federer, Nadal, etc.

Something like this:

20% Pessimistic - second tier, 0-1 Slams, maybe a dozen titles, one or two Masters
50% Moderate -near-great/elite, 2-4 Slams, ~20 titles, incl a few Masters, some time at #1
30% Optimistic - lesser great, 5-8 Slams, 30-50 titles, significant time at #1

Or something like that. Timing is also key. Even if he ends up maxing out around the Berdych/Tsonga level (which I think is unlikely, that he'll probably be better), he may still win a couple Slams if no other true greats emerge in 2018 and beyond. But I think the talent level is going to get dense again around 2020 or so, as current young players start entering their primes. But I don't see any of them being true greats, but more like a bunch of good second tier and lesser elite types.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

What do you guys think about Alexander Zverev's level of talent?

I don't feel like I have the knowledge to adequately assess his on-court skill set, but what I see--based upon my limited knowledge, as well as his age-relative ranking and performance record--is that he has a range of outcomes from being a very good second tier player (ala Berdych, Tsonga) to a lesser great ala Becker and Edberg. I don't see him being a Sampras, Federer, Nadal, etc.

Something like this:

20% Pessimistic - second tier, 0-1 Slams, maybe a dozen titles, one or two Masters
50% Moderate -near-great/elite, 2-4 Slams, ~20 titles, incl a few Masters, some time at #1
30% Optimistic - lesser great, 5-8 Slams, 30-50 titles, significant time at #1

Or something like that. Timing is also key. Even if he ends up maxing out around the Berdych/Tsonga level (which I think is unlikely, that he'll probably be better), he may still win a couple Slams if no other true greats emerge in 2018 and beyond. But I think the talent level is going to get dense again around 2020 or so, as current young players start entering their primes. But I don't see any of them being true greats, but more like a bunch of good second tier and lesser elite types.

Yesterday, I saw a few clips of Felix Auger Aliassime (I hope I have got the name spelled correctly here). He seems like a good talent. I can see the aggressive intent and the required firepower to support it. It was sad to also hear about his diagnosed heart disease. Why would such a young lad even happen to suffer from such things? What a shame. Anyway, I hope it does not jeopardise his career much.

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[mrzz]

Congratulations again on very two good new entries, El Dude. You keep embarrassing "mainstream media", as there is no one else out there doing anything not even close to level of depth of your analysis.

Good to see mention to my countryman Thiago Monteiro. I have seen him play and he has a lot of potential. I admit I expected a better second half of the year, but anyway it was a hell of a rise.

Just hope he focus more on bigger tournaments in 2017. For a while it seemed that his current management was trying to recover the investment by playing just on clay... as I said before, he has a hell of forehand. A guy like that can always do damage.

 

[El Dude]

Thanks for the compliment, mrzz. My analysis only goes so deep, though. I prefer to look at more surface and "mid-level" trends and stats, where someone like Jeff Sackmann at Heavy Topspin goes much deeper into the numbers than I do. His blog and stat site, Tennis Abstract, is really worth checking out.

As for Monteiro, for some reason I'm reminded of Pablo Carreno Busta. Busta, born in 1991, started getting attention in 2013 when he won four Challengers late in the year. His rankings from 2009 on are: 513, 344, 136, 654, 64, 51, 67, 30.

As you can see, Busta was rising quickly from 2009-11, but then suffered in jury and lost a year of development. Then he jumped in 2013, but stagnated for a few years. He started doing better this year and hopefully will continue to creep up, although my guess is he stabilizes in the #15-30 range.

Anyhow, sometimes players like Carreno Busta have a big jump when they effectively master the Challengers, but struggle on the ATP tour. Hopefully that won't be Monteiro's fate.

 

[mrzz]

Thanks for the link, El Dude. It is indeed quite interesting. The guy surely has time.

Yes, he compiles a LOT of numbers. But what I like about your analysis is that they give a clear grasp of what is going on, which is by the way the very idea behind the word statistic. That is, I keep my cumpliment, and if you disagree again I´ll start to troll you.

Funny you mentioned PCB. I happen to saw him play this year here at SP and he has a beautiful game to watch.

Let´s see about Monteiro. The worst part of his 2016 were the slams. He fell in the first round in all qualies. It would seem that he get tight in big matches, but then the better part of his year was exactly doing well on ATP´s in which he got wildcards, so, who knows...

 

[El Dude]

Haha, thanks. I'm glad you appreciate it, because what you say I do is exactly what I try to do - and not get too complicated in numbers, which can obfuscate more than clarify.

Both Carreno Busta and Monteiro are players I'm curious to see how they do next year. Can PCB take another step forward and be a legit top 20 player? Can Monteiro keep up his quick rise and not stall out?

 

[herios]

Why didn't Kokkinakis apply for protected ranking?! Apparently unranked now.

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2016/12/kokkinakis-return-date-uncertain-says-hewitt/62703/

I do not think you understand what protected ranking means. The PR does not mean that it changes the actual ranking, it is just applied for that player in the event he enters with the protected ranking for draw purposes.
The real ranking will not get modified. Therefore, now, Kokkinakis has no ranking, because he lost all his points after being out an entire year. That not means he cannot enter in the next event with a PR which will be using his ranking what was when he got injured a year ago.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Also, PR can only fetch you entry into tourneys and cannot be used for seedings.

 

[Front242]

Why didn't Kokkinakis apply for protected ranking?! Apparently unranked now.

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2016/12/kokkinakis-return-date-uncertain-says-hewitt/62703/

I do not think you understand what protected ranking means. The PR does not mean that it changes the actual ranking, it is just applied for that player in the event he enters with the protected ranking for draw purposes.
The real ranking will not get modified. Therefore, now, Kokkinakis has no ranking, because he lost all his points after being out an entire year. That not means he cannot enter in the next event with a PR which will be using his ranking what was when he got injured a year ago.

I realize the ranking still drops, sure look at Brian Baker when he came back.

"America's Brian Baker, a name that doesn't often come up in a draw was once a number two junior phenom, but his body started breaking down and in 2007 he begun to have injuries that eventually had to get surgery for. The first injury he applied for protected ranking and it froze his ranking so that in recuperating and getting back on the court he could enter tournaments at that ranking. But he never got to play and was out for nearly four years with six surgeries -- his hips as well as an elbow reconstruction. The time of rehab, Brian had served as a coach and also attended college. At 30 years of age, he is still feisty and is back on tour, playing last in June at the Halle, Germany event. "I'm definitely prone to injury...it's just a matter of being smart about it..." Brian has acknowledged. He will use his protected ranking in playing an ATP/ITF event up on his future tour calendar. If he didn't he would literally be ranked no. 800 and wouldn't get the chance to enter a main draw or a qualifying event without that 'PR' of 262."

http://www.tennisworldusa.org/news/news/Tennis_Stories/34252/how-does-the-protected-ranking-status-help-healing-players-get-back-on-tour/