Tennis Frontier

Category: Masterclass Matches of the Day

  • Goodbye Mr. Hyde, Welcome Back Roger Federer – 2013 Paris SF

    Goodbye Mr. Hyde, Welcome Back Roger Federer – 2013 Paris SF

    Masterclass Fed

    That Mr. Hyde impostor that we have seen most of the year in Roger Federer’s shoes appears to have finally departed.  Is it because Roger has finally overcome some of his physical problems with his back?  Did he simply need more practice and play without pain to raise his level?  Is it because he has returned from a mental vacation?  Has he found new motivation despite his countless accomplishments?  Did he need to dismiss Paul Annacone to find himself?  To play indoors again in Basel to find his game?  One doesn’t know for sure, but one hopes that Mr. Hyde is gone for a good while.

    The Juan Martin Del Potro-Roger Federer match today in the Paris-Bercy quarterfinal was played at a very good level throughout, a little higher level than last week’s Basel final, mostly because Federer played better tactically and executed well.

    Del Potro did well to hang in the first set as well as he did. I don’t think any player in the game would have stayed with Federer at that level he showed in the first set.  I think some of the best would have been served a bakery item.

    Del Potro upped his level a bit in the second and Federer’s level dropped a bit due to mostly tactical mistakes (not hitting enough slice and not moving Del Potro around enough horizontally and vertically as he had done in the first set), so it became a very even set. It probably should have gone to a tiebreak, but Federer’s level dipped a bit in his last service game and Del Potro continued to play well and snatched his opportunity to break Federer’s serve and win the second set with a flourish.

    The third set started with momentum on Del Potro’s side but he couldn’t cash in.  Federer stayed with him, then broke rather determinedly going back to his first set tactics, but then Del Potro put in a great effort to break back.  Then Federer broke Del Potro rather easily with a dip in level by Del Potro.  I think with that, Federer had his mental second wind, held serve, and Del Potro couldn’t recover his level and basically gave way in the final game.

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    [#2] Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs. [#5] Roger Federer (SUI)

    Let’s see what level Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic bring to their next match. Djokovic looked in excellent form from the start vs. Stan Wawrinka, and then played well enough to finish it in two sets.  Federer had a chance to take his match with Juan Martin Del Potro in two sets, faltered a bit at the end of the second to lose it, but finished well to take it in three.  Will that blip cost him against Djokovic?

    Federer is playing well enough to beat Djokovic if he can stay at the level he had against Del Potro.  Djokovic doesn’t hit as brilliantly hard as Del Potro, but is more consistent.  So Federer mustn’t slip up against Djokovic as Djokovic will take any chance and run with it to the bank.

    Federer needs to use his good Djokovic tactics and execution to beat him.  Give Novak little rhythm, keeping points fairly short like he has done in many of his wins.  But he must choose good moments to create and execute his winning plays, not haphazardly rush his shots.  Djokovic, on the other hand, has to try to impose his game, and lure Federer into that metronome rallying game.  Federer will need a bit more patience against Djokovic, as Djokovic will get more balls into play with his ultimate retrieving game, but I don’t think Federer wants to get into long rallies and should go for the winner at the first good opportunity.

    The problem for Federer is that when Nole is on, he plays excellent defense, generally doesn’t send back too many short balls, and pins one at or behind the baseline.  Federer will need to vary his game, lure Djokovic to the net with some short slice to the mid-backhand side, but not necessarily wide.

    Against Djokovic, I believe one is better off hitting in the middle third of the court, width wise, and more right at him with depth a majority of the time, varied with slices inside the service line, and force him to use good footwork to get at the proper distance from the ball.  He often gets discombobulated balance wise more often when the balls are hit at him, whereas he may be the best player in the world when he is able to stretch far left or right for balls with his near elastic reach, as he seems either to slap them on the side lines at will, or defensively get the ball on or near the baseline almost every time.  Djokovic is not as good when he has to move vertically up and down the court – short slice and high mid-court lobs a bit behind him make him uncomfortable.

    Keys:  Variety and Explosiveness from Federer.  Consistency and Physicality from Djokovic.

    I’m pretty sure Novak Djokovic’s form his good enough to execute his plan if he gets the chance.

    The question mark for many is Roger Federer.  Is he close enough to the form that led him to convincing wins over Novak Djokovic at Cincinnati and Wimbledon in 2012, and Roland Garros in 2011?  Or will he be prone to what I call his “Mr. Hyde Performances” of 2013 and some of his other losses to Djokovic in the past two to three years?

    The one who can assert his game over the other should win.

    Good luck to both players.

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  • Masterclass Match of the Day: Novak Djokovic vs. Stanislas Wawrinka

    Masterclass Match of the Day: Novak Djokovic vs. Stanislas Wawrinka

    A Breath of Fresh Air, Or The Same Old Song?

    As we approach the business end of the US Open, some of the same top names appear in the semifinal matches.  Race to London leader and world No. 2  Rafael Nadal continues to be on a tear, and the current No. 1 player in the world, Novak Djokovic, marches on.  But their opponents are in rather new territory.  Current world No. 8, Richard Gasquet, has never made it past the Round of 16 at the US Open, and has only made it to the semifinals of a major once in his career at Wimbledon 2007.  He has the tough task of taking on Rafael Nadal.  Stanislas Wawrinka has never made it past the quarterfinals of any major and faces Novak Djokovic, but I believe Stan’s recent play this year warrants him having a fair chance of upsetting the world No. 1 of the last two years.

    Let me put it this way: I wouldn’t put my own money on this match if I were a betting man.  But if I had some money given to me, I would put it on Stan Wawrinka and hope he plays as well as he did against Andy Murray.

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    Novak Djokovic has certainly dominated their head-to-head in the past, but every match is different.

    Based on their prior record, few if any would have picked Stan to come as close as he did in Australia to removing the three-time Plexicushion prize-winner from the premises.

    I think these days the US Open Arthur Ashe Stadium surface unfortunately plays only slightly faster than the Australian Open’s Rod Laver Arena.  It seems to have a little less grit and not quite as high a bounce.  I don’t see Djokovic sliding as much in New York as in Melbourne.  I think this will reduce Novak’s ability to defend as well as he does down under.

    Novak has been prone to concentration lapses this year.  Hard courts are no longer a bastion of certainty as they had been for the most part since 2011.  How has he done on hard courts this year?

    He started out extremely well by winning the Australian Open and Dubai.  But then something happened.  He allowed Juan Martin Del Potro to come from behind and beat him in the semifinals at Indian Wells, and followed that up with a Round of 16 straight-set loss to Tommy Haas.  His next hard court tourney was in Montreal, where he lost to Nadal in three sets in the semifinals, and followed that up with a three-set loss in Cincinnati to John Isner.

    Again, every match is different.  But Djokovic’s recent trend does not bode as well for him.

    Thus far at the US Open, he has not played any difficult opponents, easily beating unseeded opponents Berankis, Becker, Sousa, Granollers, and No. 21 seed Mikhail Youzhny in four sets.  I think the rather weak draw thus far might not be to his benefit.

    Wawrinka had not played that much on hard courts this year, choosing to focus on clay.  Aside from his Round of 16 loss to Djokovic at the Australian Open, he lost a tough one to Federer in the Round of 16 in three sets at Indian Wells, and lost to Paire and Robredo in the Round of 32 at both Montreal and Cincinnati.  So his preparation for the US Open definitely has been light.

    However, thus far in the US Open, his path has been rather difficult, and I believe it has only benefited him and he has improved his play as the tournament has progressed.  He beat Stepanek while dropping a set, defeated a tough Karlovic in a not so easy three sets, held off a tenacious Baghdatis in four sets, stepped it up another level to down Berdych who had been playing very well, and, as many saw, played a very intelligent and strong match to down Andy Murray in three sets. Thus, I feel Stan Wawrinka is much better prepared in terms of his play for this match with Djokovic.

    I think the match up is quite similar as to the one with Andy.  Stan must play with variety to Djokovic as he did with Murray, and not let Djokovic get into any good rhythm.  I think Stan would do better to go to body serves against Djokovic, since he stretches so well to get to balls.  Nole must try to get Stan into a power struggle from the baseline for him to have a good chance.

    Andy beat Novak last year in five sets at the US Open.  Stan beat Andy this year in three sets.

    I believe Stan could force Nole out in three or four sets if he plays like he has been considering the level of opponents they have both played and their level during this tournament, and if he can use similar tactics and execution as he did against Murray.

    The only problem with Stan is lack of a strong mental stability.  He has been known to suddenly go walkabout or get down on himself and go away in a match.  Additionally, one cannot be certain that he will not have a bit of  letdown after beating Andy.  These are the chief reasons why I would not bet money on the match, if I were a betting man.  Also, Nole has been known to raise his game occasionally and refuse to lose.  So though I stick by my call, I would never be surprised to see Novak Djokovic win.

    As always I hope for a good, entertaining match and wish good luck to both players and their fans!

  • Masterclass Match of the Day – Juan Martin del Potro vs. Lleyton Hewitt

    Masterclass Match of the Day – Juan Martin del Potro vs. Lleyton Hewitt

    US Open 2013 – [6] Juan Martin del Potro (ARG) vs. Lleyton Hewitt (AUS)
    Arthur Ashe Stadium – 7 pm EDT

    Tonight’s marquee match will feature 2 former US Open winners. It has been a few years since either man won it, with Juan Martin winning most recently in 2009 and Hewitt winning 12 years ago in 2001.

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    Why has neither man been able to win it since? There are two main reasons. The competition and their injury problems.

    In many tourneys between 2003 and 2008, Hewitt was beaten at various stages by the eventual champion, usually Federer, sometimes Nadal or Roddick. In 2004, Hewitt became the first man in history to lose to the eventual champion at each of the slam events. Lleyton Hewitt also had a host of major injury problems since 2008, where he incurred an injury to his left hip in March, which eventually required surgery after further damage to it at the Olympics. Hewitt eventually came back to form in 2009 at the US Men’s Clay Court Championships where he won his first title since 2007. He then played at Wimbledon where he beat Juan Martin del Potro in straight sets in the second round and went all the way to the quarterfinals where he was defeated by eventual finalist, Andy Roddick in a 5 set thriller with two tiebreaks. He then lost to eventual finalist Roger Federer in the 2009 US Open.

    In 2010, he suffered a hip injury to his right side after the Australian Open where he lost in the 4th round to Federer again. Again it required surgery. He returned eventually, and finally won a title in Halle, defeating Roger Federer, snapping a 15 match losing streak since 2003. He lost at Wimbledon to Djokovic in the 4th round. He suffered a leg injury in Washington DC., and lost in the first round of the US Open. He then suffered a season ending wrist injury in a Davis Cup loss to Belgium. In 2011, Hewitt underwent surgery on his left foot, returned after 3 months, and suffered an injury to his ankle defending his title at Halle. In Atlanta, he again injured his foot, and it ended his season. He returned in 2012, and had a good run to the 4th round, defeating Andy Roddick and Milos Raonic before finally losing in 4 sets to Novak Djokovic. After the succeeding Davis Cup, Hewitt finally had surgery to insert a plate into his left toe. I think you have the idea of Mr. Hewitt’s misery.

    2013 started off nicely for Hewitt where he won an exhibition, the AAMI Kooyong Classic, defeating Raonic, Berdych, then Juan Martin del Potro in the final on hard courts. But he disappointed in the Australian Open losing to Janko Tipsarevic in the first round. He finally found form on the grass at Queens Club, where he beat Querrey, Dimitrov, and Del Potro to advance to the semifinal, but lost in 3 sets to Marin Cilic who would shortly thereafter be apparently facing a doping suspension. At Wimbledon, Hewitt upset #10, Stan Wawrinka, in the first round, but inexplicably fell to Dustin Brown in the second round. He made it to the final in Newport, but was defeated by Nicolas Mahut after serving for the match. His form continued to look good in Atlanta where he made it to the semifinals.

    After Juan Martin Del Potro won his 2009 US Open, great things were expected of the gentle giant. Unfortunately in 2010, as he advanced to world #4, he suffered a right wrist injury very early, which he tried to play with at the Australian Open, and it got worse. It persisted, and he finally decided to have surgery in early May. Del Potro was not to return till 9 months later where his rank had fallen to close to #500. In 2011, he finally won again at Delray Beach. He also won in Estoril on clay, and then in Davis Cup helped defeat Serbia in the semifinal winning both rubbers versus Tipsarevic and Djokovic. Later in the year, he suffered a slight shoulder injury, but returned to play the final in Davis Cup against Spain, where he had a heartbreaking 5 set 5 hour loss to David Ferrer, and then a 4 set loss to Rafael Nadal. Del Potro ended 2011 at #11 and was named 2011 ATP Comeback Player of the Year.

    2012 was a very successful year for Del Potro, especially toward the latter stages where he beat Federer in Basel, who had previously dominated the results during the year, beating Del Potro in the finals or semifinals or quarterfinals of their previous 6 tournaments during the year. These results included a marathon 4 and a half hour loss to Federer at the Olympics and a 5 set loss at Roland Garros. In 2012, Del Potro still won 4 titles in Marseilles, Estoril, Vienna, and Basil, and finished the year as #7 in the world. During the year he had some minor problems with his knee and left wrist, but overcame them.

    In 2013, Del Potro won in Rotterdam, then at Indian Wells successively beat Tommy Haas, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, before succumbing to Rafael Nadal in the final. Del Potro withdrew from Roland Garros with a viral infection, but returned to Wimbledon and advanced past David Ferrer to battle in a fine but ultimately losing effort against Novak Djokovic in a 5 set, 4 hour and 43 minute semifinal thriller, the longest semifinal in Wimbledon men’s singles history. He came back to win the Washington, DC, CitiOpen tournament, beating John Isner in 3 sets.

    Against each other, they have split 4 ATP/ITF tour matches, Hewitt beating Del Potro on grass easily at Wimbledon 2009 and in 3 sets at Queens just this year, but losing on hard courts of Washington, DC in three sets in 2009 and San Jose in two in 2011. Hewitt did defeat Del Potro rather easily at this years AAMI Kooyong Classic exhibition on hard courts, but read into that what you may.

    I believe it will be a good battle. Both men appear to be in good form and in relatively good health.
    They both won in 4 sets, though it appeared that Del Potro had the tougher time with Guillermo Garcia-Lopez that included two tiebreakers.

    One has to favor Del Potro on hard court as one would favor Hewitt on grass, but Hewitt can give a good account of himself on hard courts. They’ll be playing at night with forecast of nearly 80 F./26 C. and breezy conditions but relatively low humidity.

    I think this match comes down to a couple of keys. Will Hewitt be able to force Del Potro to hit enough shots to make errors, and use enough variety to move Del Potro around the court out of his comfort zone, or will Del Potro be able to use his fearsome forehand to blast Hewitt off the court?

    Hewitt definitely moves better on grass than Del Potro, but on hard court it is a bit different story. Hewitt has the better return. Del Potro probably the better serve. Each player has a high degree of mental toughness, but I think Del Potro may have a bit higher at this stage in their career, and has consistently been playing better opponents. Del Potro has had better results in New York.

    For those last two reasons, I’m going to give a slight edge to Juan Martin Del Potro, but Lleyton Hewitt is certainly able to beat Juan if Juan Martin is off a bit and Lleyton is firing on all cylinders.

    Juan Martin del Potro to defeat Lleyton Hewitt in 4 or 5 sets.

    Good luck and good health to both players!