Tennis Frontier

Category: August on Tennis

Kalle Tyynelä is a blogger for Tennis Frontier.

  • Wimbledon Final: A Rematch of 2014

    Wimbledon Final: A Rematch of 2014

    Novak Djokovic Roger Federer

    The 2015 men’s singles Wimbledon final will be contested between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, like last year. The World No. 1 and defending champion, Djokovic, has won his matches comfortably in three sets with the exception of the five-setter in the Round of 16 against Kevin Anderson. The World No. 2, Federer, has been impressive so far; he has dropped only one set, against Sam Groth, in the Round of 32, and the only time his serve was broken was in the quarterfinal against Gilles Simon.

    Federer comes to the final after an impressive semifinal win against Andy Murray. Federer was rock-solid in his service games. He served 20 aces and won 84% of points on his first serve and in the second set he won all of those.

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    Djokovic had big trouble against Kevin Anderson in the Round of 16. Anderson had played a good grass season, making the final at the Queen’s Club, so his good performance wasn’t quite so surprising. Anderson, with his big serve and net play, took the first two sets and was able to trouble Djokovic till the end of the match.

    Great serving (in a different way to Anderson) and net play are also Federer’s strengths, so I think he has the tools to beat Djokovic. And Anderson showed Djokovic is vulnerable. So did Stan Wawrinka in the French Open final, although on clay. Both matches showed offensive game puts Djokovic in trouble. Of course, Djokovic returns well and has a great defense but so does Murray, too, whom Federer just impressively beat. If Federer serves like today, he will be very hard to break and Djokovic can’t afford bad service games.

    The head-to-head is 20-19 to Federer. He used to be a difficult match-up for Djokovic; for example, he was the first to defeat Djokovic in 2011, in the French Open semifinal. Later Djokovic got good wins over Federer, such as the World Tour Finals final in 2012 and the Wimbledon final last year. Since 2014 the head-to-head is 5-4 to Djokovic, including Federer’s withdrawal from the World Tour Finals final. But on faster surfaces (Dubai, Wimbledon, Shanghai), Federer has fared well against Djokovic; matches 3-1 and sets 8-4 to Federer. So this is surely a great chance for Federer.

    Djokovic came to Wimbledon as the runner-up of the French Open. He had finally beaten Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros but got outplayed in the final against Stan Wawrinka. Being denied the French Open title once again may have hurt him but I don’t think it’s hurting his self-confidence here. He didn’t throw a win away; he simply got outplayed. He got outplayed by Anderson for two sets, yet he didn’t fold but won in five. That sort of consistency can pay dividends in best-of-five. Still, those Wawrinka and Anderson matches have showed he can get outplayed, and Federer surely can do that for an entire match. Also, Djokovic’s Grand Slam final record isn’t particularly great for a player of his caliber: 8-8. Playing all but two of those finals against a non-Big Four opponent partly explains that, but also shows some vulnerability; after all he isn’t so dominant.

    Federer is playing for a record eighth Wimbledon title, currently sharing the record of seven with Pete Sampras and William Renshaw. While he looked ageless in the semifinal against Murray, he’ll be 34 in a month and he’s the oldest Wimbledon finalist in 41 years. He won’t have many more chances to break the threeway tie, plus get to 18 total Grand Slam titles, furthering himself one more from Nadal, who has 14. But I don’t think pressure from that will be a factor on Sunday; Federer knows how to win, especially at Wimbledon.

    I think this is on Federer’s racquet. If he plays his best tennis, he will outplay Djokovic. He must serve well against Djokovic’s great return, be aggressive, and avoid getting into long baseline rallies where Djokovic is too solid. Djokovic must defend well against Federer’s offensive game but he must not be too passive, otherwise he’s giving the keys to victory to Federer and can only hope Federer starts missing his shots.

    Of course, Djokovic beat Federer last year in the Wimbledon final and Federer is probably the one facing the effects of aging faster now. But still, I think Federer is better prepared for the final this year. He had been coached by Stefan Edberg only since the start of the last season and I think his game reached its peak later that year when he won the Shanghai Masters, defeating Djokovic in two sets in the semifinal. Federer can still be the best player on fast surfaces; on Sunday he must be that to win the Wimbledon final.

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    Cover Photo (Creative Commons License): Marianne Bevis

  • French Open Final: Djokovic The Favorite But Don’t Rule Out Wawrinka

    French Open Final: Djokovic The Favorite But Don’t Rule Out Wawrinka

    Novak Djokovic Stan Wawrinka Roland Garros Final

    The men’s French Open singles final will have the first-seed Novak Djokovic facing the eighth-seed Stan Wawrinka. Djokovic is playing his third final at Roland Garros, and is aiming for his first title there, completing the Career Grand Slam. And he’s already defeated the nine-time French Open champion Rafael Nadal, the man who ended his title dreams the last three years. So, this is maybe his best chance to finally win the French Open; surely the World No. 1, who is undefeated on clay this year, must be the favorite.

    After a dominant three-set win over Nadal in the quarterfinal, Djokovic had a tricky semifinal match against Andy Murray. After two sets it seemed like it was going to be an easy win for the Serb but Murray fought hard and leveled the match at 2-2 before playing a weak fifth set that Djokovic won 6-1. Murray’s great defense was causing trouble for Djokovic as it was hard to hit through or try to approach the net.

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    The final opponent, Stan Wawrinka, is a completely different player to Murray. Wawrinka doesn’t have the defense of Murray but he hits heavy groundstrokes and will test Novak’s defense. And despite that he’s usually lost, Stan has played some of his best matches against Novak. Since 2013, they’ve met four times at slams, on the hard courts of the Australian Open and the US Open. All those meetings were five-setters with Stan winning the 2014 Australian Open quarterfinal, his first win against Novak since 2006.

    I think the situation here is ideal for Wawrinka. The surface plays into Stan’s hands. A slow hard court like at the Australian Open is Novak’s best surface and Stan has troubled him there. Clay, on the other hand, is the most comfortable surface for Stan. And despite Novak having eight Grand Slam titles compared to Stan’s one, it’s Novak with the big pressure here. Stan is playing “only” for his second Grand Slam title; no matter what happens, he will still be a Grand Slam champion. Novak, on the other hand, is playing for the Career Grand Slam that he’s missed out completing the last three years. This may be mentally one of the toughest matches in Novak’s career. Compared to his two previous finals at Roland Garros, Novak is now the clear favorite, yet still he is facing a tricky opponent.

    The expectations for Wawrinka were high last year after winning the Australian Open. But he wasn’t able to play his best tennis, except only occasionally. Now he seems to be in a good form: he made the semifinals in Rome by beating Nadal in the quarters, and he’s been solid at Roland Garros, beating Roger Federer, for example. The semifinal against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga showed some of his inconsistency when he lost the second set from 4-3 up a break. But he also performed well under pressure, for instance saving all of Tsonga’s break points in the third set before taking it in the tiebreak. I believe Stan is capable of playing a good match in the final, forcing Novak to play his best tennis to win it. We’ll see how Novak can deal with Stan’s game. Of the big names he’s faced at Roland Garros so far, Nadal and Murray are completely different players to Wawrinka. Earlier this year on clay, Djokovic dropped a set to another big-hitter Tomas Berdych. Wawrinka’s power game requires Djokovic’s defense to be as great as it’s been this year.

    I am expecting Djokovic to win the final — he is simply the best player in the world now, also on clay courts, and very consistent. But if Wawrinka plays his best tennis, he’s dangerous. He feels comfortable on clay and can also hit through in slower conditions. We haven’t seen this match-up on clay in a long time so it will be interesting to see it tomorrow. If Stan plays his best tennis, Novak needs to bring his best to win.

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    Cover Photo (Creative Commons License): mirsasha

  • What to Expect from Stan Wawrinka in 2015? / Kalle Tyynelä

    What to Expect from Stan Wawrinka in 2015? / Kalle Tyynelä

    Stan Wawrinka

    Stan Wawrinka has been a late-bloomer. Not many, if any, people expected him to be the first new Grand Slam champion after 2013, despite Stan having broken back into the Top 10, and showing skills to challenge the best players. But he was able to take the step forward and beat the best players in the world to win the Australian Open title. Still, he couldn’t reach late stages with the consistency the Big Four used to do but his Monte Carlo title, World Tour Finals semifinal, and the performances in the victorious Davis Cup finals show he isn’t a one-hit wonder. When Stan plays his best tennis, he is one of the best players in the world.

    But what to expect from him in 2015? He lost to Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal in the Abu Dhabi exhibition tournament. Yet, while those two lost on the following week to weaker players, Stan won the Chennai tournament. While Chennai didn’t have the strongest field, winning without dropping a set is a good sign; he must be playing some consistent tennis. That is good to see after last year when he had some upset losses to players with low rankings.

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    One can wonder if his new status as a Grand Slam champion affected to his performances last year. In 2013 he didn’t win big titles but was more consistent than last year. After titles in Chennai and the Australian Open, he couldn’t play two good events in a row before the World Tour Finals and the Davis Cup final.

    Now he is starting a tournament with maybe more pressure than ever. For the first time, he is defending a Grand Slam title. And those 2,000 points are very important for his ranking. It is very likely he will fall from the Top 4; even successfully defending the title doesn’t guarantee his retaining the ranking of No. 4. Failing to make the quarterfinals could see him falling out of the Top 10. And even making the semifinals doesn’t guarantee him staying in the Top 8, which would be important for the draws.

    Having to deal with tougher draws can make this season a bit more difficult for him. But as the usual Big Four are facing strong contention from players like Nishikori and Cilic, it seems like a Top-4 seeding doesn’t anymore guarantee a safe quarterfinal. Staying in the Top 8 would still be important. Facing non-Top-8 players in quarterfinals would help a lot.

    Then, what do I think he will achieve this year? I am pretty confident he will end the year in the Top 8, and his usual level is enough to take him into the quarterfinals or semifinals of a big event. Can he win a Slam or a Masters this year? I don’t know but surely he has the skills for that. Nobody can afford a bad day against a well-playing Wawrinka. And his Australian Open and Monte Carlo titles are proof he can play a big tournament without a bad day, something that is needed for a tournament win.

    But what Wawrinka is missing to be a constant title favorite and a real contender for the No. 1 ranking is the ability to turn tight matches into his favor, something the very best players can do. So often last year, Stan couldn’t find a way to win when he faced adversity. And to win big titles, he must win matches like last year’s World Tour Finals semifinal against Federer, when he served for the match, yet ended up losing.

    The surface where I think Stan has the best chance to win something big is hard courts. Clay may be his preferred surface and some of his best performances have happened on clay — for example, the Monte Carlo semifinal against Ferrer or the Davis Cup final against Tsonga. But I think he has better chances against Nadal’s or Djokovic’s defense in faster conditions. While Stan is more vulnerable on faster surfaces, he has a better chance to hit through best defenses on hard courts.

    So, Top 8 is my expectation for Wawrinka in 2014. I believe he will make some semifinals in big events, and even big finals and titles are possible.

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    Cover Photo (Creative Commons License): Marianne Bevis