I didn’t get a chance to watch the Indian Wells final, but intermittently checking the ATP World Tour’s live scores I was somewhat distracted from making and eating dinner. When the match was over, I felt the usual disappointment for my long-time favorite Roger Federer’s loss, but the feeling was quickly replaced by a feeling of appreciation for the great Swiss Maestro as I remembered: The guy is almost 34 years old! He’s No. 2 in the world and giving the best player in the game a run for the money.
The question came to me, where were other great players at Roger’s age? So I did some research. Federer, as of March 23, is 33 years old, 7 months, and 15 days. To many reading this (myself included), that sounds like a young man, but in the tennis world he’s virtually an old man. Consider that most of Roger’s peers have retired. Of players born from 1980 to 1982, within a year of Federer’s birth year, the following have retired, some many years ago: Marat Safin, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Fernando Gonzalez, Nikolay Davydenko, Andy Roddick, Guillermo Coria, David Nalbandian – most of the best of Federer’s generation. Of those remaining, only Federer, David Ferrer, Feliciano Lopez, Tommy Robredo, and Mikhail Youzhny are anywhere near their peak level, with Lleyton Hewitt still around but a far cry from what he used to be.
But what about other great players? Where where they at over 33 and a half? Below is a chart of all players who won four or more Slams during the Open Era:
As you can see, six of the thirteen players were retired by the time they were Federer’s age – and five of the last six in terms of chronological age. You can see a clear pattern of earlier players lasting longer, while players born in the 60s and 70s were largely out of the game by the time they were Federer’s current age. Among those more recent six, only the remarkable Andre Agassi was still around – and thriving, no less, ranked No. 4 and with a few more years and two more titles in him.
Going back further, Lendl was on his way out, having won his last title just a few days before he was Federer’s current age. McEnroe was in his final year. Connors was many years from retirement and still a good player, but no longer a true elite. Vilas was in a long and slow fade, and Newcombe in his last year. The immortal Rosewall and Laver still had many years and were still excellent players, although no longer at their very best (although Rosewall would still win three more Slams and 41 more titles). Clearly it was a different game.
So what lies ahead for the great Swiss player? Who knows. He isn’t the same player he was six or seven years ago, but he is still very, very good; aside from Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, he is almost certainly the best player in the game, and it is hard to imagine a quick and immediate drop-off any time soon. As he himself said recently, he wants to play for as long as possible. What that means remains to be seen, but I think the bottom line is that Roger will play for as long as he wants to; certainly as long as he is competing in title matches. At his age every year matters, but hopefully he’ll be good enough to stick around for at least a few more, because when he’s gone, we’re all going to miss him.
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Cover Photo (Creative Commons License): Marianne Bevis