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The Reign of Novak is Over
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GameSetAndMath Offline
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RE: The Reign of Novak is Over
(14-Feb-2017 09:11 AM)isabelle Wrote:  according to some Serbian's papers, Jelena's 2 montsh pregnant...congrats to Nole and Jelena, Stefan'll have a brother or sister soon

The real question is will Stefan have an ALT mom also. Lolz

"Never argue with a fool; onlookers may not be able to tell the difference" - Mark Twain
14-Feb-2017 11:04 AM
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isabelle Offline
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RE: The Reign of Novak is Over
if his tennis elbow continues to bother him, he could have a poor season
let's see if he can play Miami, he went back to Monte Carlo to see his doctor
18-Mar-2017 08:31 AM
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lindseywagners Offline
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RE: The Reign of Novak is Over
(23-Jan-2017 07:33 PM)El Dude Wrote:  Yeah, it is hard imagining Novak not coming back and at least winning another couple Slams. I read a Tignor article about Mischa's win and he was speculating that the reason Andy and Novak lost has less to do with decline (or, as he put it, Andy being unable to hold onto his #1) and more to do with the speed of the court.

That said, I think Novak is teetering a bit and has a legitimate confidence problem. I can't imagine what it must be like to go from his unparalleled dominance of 2015 to mid-2016, and then go out early at Wimbledon and now his home turf, the AO. So there is a legitimate and growing concern that he is going to struggle for awhile, possibly to the point of never winning another Slam, as Carol (wishfully) predicts. I think it is unlikely, but it went from "no chance of happening" a few months ago, now is more like "unlikely but possible."

Novak is too great of a player not to right the ship. As I've been saying, I think his best case scenario now is that he returns to the "first among equals" status of 2012-14 for another year or two. But the next few years are going to be pretty wild with no single strongly dominant player, or so I think (and hope!).

What about 2011? He won 43 in a row to start the year and 3 of 4 slams. Then he sunk down a bit in 2012. It's not like he hasn't rebounded before.
30-Mar-2017 12:18 PM
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Fiero425 (03-30-2017)
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RE: The Reign of Novak is Over
lindsey, we have to take into account age and the context of play. Novak reached his peak form in 2011 at age 23-24, then dropped a bit for a few years in a high plateau in which he was "first among equals," aside from 2013, from 2012-14 (actually, it was really only the first half of 2013 that Rafa was ahead of him). Then he surged in 2015, at age 27-28. This was partially due to him consistently finding a high level of play, but also because 2015 was a pretty weak year for the tour: Andy and Rafa struggled, and Roger played well but clearly wasn't what he was, and the younger generation had never really risen to challenge.

Novak is turning 30 years old in less than two months. He is young enough that I think he can return to an elite level, but I highly doubt to an utterly dominant form like he was in 2011 or 2015. I think the best case scenario is something similar to 2012-14. In fact, I would be surprised if he didn't win at least a couple more Slams and continue to be among the very best players in the sport for two or three more years. But there are signs for concern.

As I see it, there are three factors that are working against him. One, his mentality - I'm not sure how into it he is. Maybe it is just bravado, but he also could have lost the drive to win.

Secondly, his movement. I'm wondering if he has lost a hair of movement, which is impacting him. I haven't watched him enough to really say, but he might be a tad slower and less able to retrieve everything (maybe someone who has watched him a lot this year can comment).

Finally, the young players. Kyrgios and Zverev will only get better. I think that, along with Raonic, Nishikori, Dimitrov, and Thiem, they form a strong new "second tier" of players - and in a year or two, not only will Kyrgios and Zverev become first tier, or elite players, but more young players will rise to expand the second tier into a rather deep pool of players.

I suppose we can add a fourth element, which is his peers, the Big Four. If Roger maintains his current level he's going to be very hard to beat for the rest of the year. Rafa is looking to surge during clay season, and Andy should return to form.

Combine all of these factors and I think the sentiment that his reign--that is, rulership as "king" of tennis--is over, looks even truer now than when I wrote the original post a couple months ago.
(This post was last modified: 30-Mar-2017 02:48 PM by El Dude.)
30-Mar-2017 02:47 PM
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mrzz (03-31-2017)
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RE: The Reign of Novak is Over
(19-Jan-2017 03:28 AM)El Dude Wrote:  Technically speaking, he's currently 1625 points behind Andy Murray. If Andy wins the AO, which seems likely now, he'll be 3485 points back. This is really Andy's chance to get a nice lead early in the year.

Reading this 2 months later I can't help but Lay Down Laughing... Now look where they are - both out with elbow injuries and Murray's got a crapload of points to defend - 11,020 to be exact. Anybody see Murray successfully defending ALL of these points? Because I sure as heck don't. Monte Carlo is in 2 weeks...

Monte Carlo - 360
Madrid - 600
Rome - 1,000
French Open - 1,200
Queen's Club - 500
Wimbledon - 2,000
Cincinnati - 600
US Open - 360
Beijing - 500
Shanghai - 1,000
Vienna - 500
Paris - 1,000
ATP Finals - 1,500
(This post was last modified: 31-Mar-2017 10:19 PM by Busted.)
31-Mar-2017 10:17 PM
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El Dude Online
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RE: The Reign of Novak is Over
It is crazy to think, but Roger is the player to beat right now as far as the YE1 is concerned. A lot can change - we're only about 20% through the year. But yeah, it is a surprise.
31-Mar-2017 10:25 PM
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shivashish (04-01-2017)
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RE: The Reign of Novak is Over
On the whole, this entire thread is making me laugh. Gotta toot my own horn though. When I started posting on this board a few years ago one of my comments was on the subject of Tipsarevic saying Nole's goal was to surpass Roger's 302 weeks at #1. I said that in the not too distant future Djokovic, who plays a very physical game the same as Nadal, would find himself in the same situation Nadal was in - struggling to find his game.

http://www.tennisfrontier.com/forum/show...#pid172163

It's nice to have big goals and if players don't dream big then they'll never get anywhere, but as a regular schmoe I'm a realist - Nole's probably not even going to pass Connors. Eventually some young gun is going to knock him off the #1 spot just like it's happened every other #1 player. Everybody gets old. It's a fact of life. And playing the way he does - 3-6 hour matches? Unless he finds a B and C game plan and cuts his match time in half - he'll be Nadal in a year's time and lucky to last until he's 30.


That comment is from April 2015. Nole imploded right after he won the French Open in early June 2016. So just over a year later what I predicted came to pass. You simply cannot play 2 or 3 3-6 hour matches every major tournament and NOT have it come back to bite you in the butt as you age. Federer's game isn't really considered to be all that taxing on the body and yet he's only won 2 Slams after turning 30. Of course he had a ton of competition From Nadal and Djokovic - but Djokovic hasn't had that added pressure or 2 other hungry elite players breathing down his aging neck. All he's had to deal with the last 3 years is...well...an even older Federer and perennial Mr. Comes Up Short Every Time - Andy Murray. No Nadal. No fast-rising young bucks on the block. Just Murray and Federer with the big 3-0 looming in the distance. And here we are today - Nole seemingly on the decline and out with tennis elbow.

I fully expect Nole will be back at the top and even win another Slam or two. But hopefully with the tennis experts seeing what Roger is doing at 35 - they'll end this ridic GOAT discussion and give him his due. It took him from 2010 AO to the 2012 Wimbledon to get #17. It then took him from Wimbledon 2012 to AO 2017 to get #18. Sasha Zverev looks like he really wants to be #1. Kyrgios has the talent if not the discipline to be #1. Playing the way he does - grinding, defending and retrieving - where does that leave Nole heading into his 30th year - and Nadal heading into his 31st year? It only gets harder to win Slams from here on. Just ask Roger.
(This post was last modified: 31-Mar-2017 10:53 PM by Busted.)
31-Mar-2017 10:48 PM
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Busted Offline
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RE: The Reign of Novak is Over
(19-Jan-2017 03:43 AM)GameSetAndMath Wrote:  Tiger did not win a major since 2008. Both Novak and Tiger are Buddhists. Just pointing out the commonalities. Snicker

Following that logic you could also conclud that Nole has a sex addiction and has been serial cheating on his wife with porn "actresses" the entire time they've been together. Rolleyes
(This post was last modified: 31-Mar-2017 10:56 PM by Busted.)
31-Mar-2017 10:55 PM
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El Dude Online
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RE: The Reign of Novak is Over
I'm not sure why the whole thread has you laughing, Busted, when the basic idea of my original post was that Novak was done as the dominant force he was in 2015.
01-Apr-2017 01:32 AM
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shivashish Offline
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RE: The Reign of Novak is Over
Nole's clay season will be a chance for him to bounce back. He is the current clay king so that should give him confidence, placebo whatever that is. But, let's say he does not get a title in the clay season, I think he will really begin to feel the pressure. And if he doesn't bounce back by winning the US Open then it will be worse.

But, I think he will win something from MC through WTF. A slam will get his confidence back. A masters will keep his hopes alive for the future.

Now it's all about winning slams for him now, I would guess . As many as he can win he will try to win. But Kyrgios is just around the corner. He will a regular feature in last 4 of slams very soon. The competition will get only better.

The main question at the moment is which grand slam is most preferable for having Djokovic win a slam. Is is the French Open? I think it's still doable with Rafa and Thiem as the only big competitors and no real guy coming up. Kyrgios, Zverev all have a big serve and should be more suited for fast-court play. French Open would remain doable I would think.

Outlook for the future, optimistically:

1 RG
2 Oz
1 US Open

Ends with 16 slams.

Outlook for the future, pessimistically:

1 Oz
1 RG

Ends with 14 slams.

Time will ultimately tell, though.

01-Apr-2017 08:50 AM
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the AntiPusher Offline
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RE: The Reign of Novak is Over
(31-Mar-2017 10:55 PM)Busted Wrote:  
(19-Jan-2017 03:43 AM)GameSetAndMath Wrote:  Tiger did not win a major since 2008. Both Novak and Tiger are Buddhists. Just pointing out the commonalities. Snicker

Following that logic you could also conclud that Nole has a sex addiction and has been serial cheating on his wife with porn "actresses" the entire time they've been together. Rolleyes

Is Novak really hitting it, porn actresses too..I know he had that Bollywood incident..Becker sure wasn't a role for any married man
01-Apr-2017 08:56 AM
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bobvance Offline
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RE: The Reign of Novak is Over
I agree with the original post in that Novak is likely done being the super dominant player he's been since 2011 or so. But he has way too much game to not come back as a force. It seems like most of his issues right now are psychological. I always thought his game would age well because of his ability to play offensive tennis, and I still think that. I'd bet that he'll win at least 2 more slams.
(This post was last modified: 02-Apr-2017 01:25 PM by bobvance.)
01-Apr-2017 09:57 AM
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Busted Offline
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RE: The Reign of Novak is Over
(01-Apr-2017 01:32 AM)El Dude Wrote:  I'm not sure why the whole thread has you laughing, Busted, when the basic idea of my original post was that Novak was done as the dominant force he was in 2015.

I was laughing because that's exactly what I predicted in my April 2015 comment - and here we are 2 years later discussing just that. At that time most tennis experts and fans were predicting world domination for Nole for years to come and common sense said - he's about to turn 28 and most tennis players start on the downhill slide at 28 or 29. So him still be the same dominant player at 30 was highly unlikely. If Federer couldn't do it - then what was the likelihood that Djokovic, who plays a much more physical and grinding game, would? In my mind- it just wasn't going to happen.
02-Apr-2017 04:16 PM
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