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Young Guns Watch: 2017
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El Dude Online
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RE: Young Guns Watch: 2017
Well again, I suspect it is a bit of both--Weak Generation Theory and Peak Shift Theory (I like it)--that combine to give the illusion that players are peaking longer and later than previously I think they ARE, but just not as much if you ignore WGT and look only at PST.

But another aspect of this that I find interesting is the phenomena of "third tier" players maintaining prime form longer. Of Roger's generation, only he and Ferrer are among the ten or dozen best and still playing at a high level, and obviously Ferrer is fading. Youzhny is borderline top ten and has declined. Robredo is playing a bit still, I think, but everyone else has retired. The players of that group that are in the top 100 are, by and large, third and fourth tier players. So why would these guys hold up better?
07-Mar-2017 03:45 PM
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mrzz Offline
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RE: Young Guns Watch: 2017
^Well, maybe generation Federer is a bit too old to enter the analysis. Federer himself is an outlier by definition and needs to be seen separately. But taking the players you listed on your blog, without cheking I would think that from 1981 up they are indeed holding up well.
07-Mar-2017 06:16 PM
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El Dude Online
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RE: Young Guns Watch: 2017
Some interesting NextGen news...Denis Shapovalov defeated fellow Canadian Felix Auger Aliassime in the SF of Drummondville Challenger. FAA had just defeated Alex De Minaur in the previous round. He is also coming off a Futures win (Sherbrooke) and is now ranked #374 in the live rankings...seems like he's starting to move up a bit. A top 200 finish for the 16-year old this year would be terrific.

Shapovalov has stalled a bit, but will enter the top 200 if he defeats #154 Ruben Bemelmans tomorrow.
18-Mar-2017 10:08 PM
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herios Offline
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RE: Young Guns Watch: 2017
(18-Mar-2017 10:08 PM)El Dude Wrote:  Some interesting NextGen news...Denis Shapovalov defeated fellow Canadian Felix Auger Aliassime in the SF of Drummondville Challenger. FAA had just defeated Alex De Minaur in the previous round. He is also coming off a Futures win (Sherbrooke) and is now ranked #374 in the live rankings...seems like he's starting to move up a bit. A top 200 finish for the 16-year old this year would be terrific.

Shapovalov has stalled a bit, but will enter the top 200 if he defeats #154 Ruben Bemelmans tomorrow.

Shapo won yesterday and he indeed broke into the top 200, being now ranked 194.
20-Mar-2017 09:12 AM
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El Dude Online
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RE: Young Guns Watch: 2017
Yeah, I saw that. Good to see. I'm hoping he reaches the top 100 this year. Might be a stretch, though.
20-Mar-2017 12:46 PM
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herios Offline
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RE: Young Guns Watch: 2017
(20-Mar-2017 12:46 PM)El Dude Wrote:  Yeah, I saw that. Good to see. I'm hoping he reaches the top 100 this year. Might be a stretch, though.

I doubt that will happen.
(This post was last modified: 21-Mar-2017 04:46 PM by herios.)
21-Mar-2017 04:45 PM
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El Dude Online
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RE: Young Guns Watch: 2017
Mikael Ymer, the younger and (allegedly) more talented of the Ymer brothers, lost to Robin Haase, but put up a good fight: 7-5, 7-6 (3). I think he's going to start attracting attention.
23-Mar-2017 10:58 PM
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mrzz Offline
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RE: Young Guns Watch: 2017
(21-Mar-2017 04:45 PM)herios Wrote:  
(20-Mar-2017 12:46 PM)El Dude Wrote:  Yeah, I saw that. Good to see. I'm hoping he reaches the top 100 this year. Might be a stretch, though.

I doubt that will happen.

Just to prove you wrong (or to start the long process in order to do so), he beat fellow Canadian Pospisil. Now at #179 in the live rankings.

Since I heard about his outburst in DC, I root for him.
24-Mar-2017 07:01 AM
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El Dude Online
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RE: Young Guns Watch: 2017
The top 100 is definitely possibly by year's end for Shapovalov. Consider that the current #100 in the live rankings has 580 points; Shapovalov, at #179, has 301. That means that he needs to out-perform his own year last year by about +300 points...certainly do-able.
24-Mar-2017 12:20 PM
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El Dude Online
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RE: Young Guns Watch: 2017
I just watched the highlights of the Tiafoe-Federer match and I must say, I'm rather impressed with the young American - far more so than when I first saw him play a couple years ago. His serve seems a bit smoother and he's got some variation, a tremendous forehand, and lots of heart. He's probably moved up ahead of Fritz as the most promising young American, in my opinion.
25-Mar-2017 06:44 PM
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shivashish Offline
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RE: Young Guns Watch: 2017
Yes, Tiafoe has a good FH, BH seems reliable at the least. Service is good. Lots of power. Aggressive intent is there. I have actually liked his game over Fritz or any other youngster, I mean the brand of tennis.

25-Mar-2017 11:21 PM
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