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Young Guns Watch: 2017
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El Dude Offline
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RE: Young Guns Watch: 2017
Well again, I suspect it is a bit of both--Weak Generation Theory and Peak Shift Theory (I like it)--that combine to give the illusion that players are peaking longer and later than previously I think they ARE, but just not as much if you ignore WGT and look only at PST.

But another aspect of this that I find interesting is the phenomena of "third tier" players maintaining prime form longer. Of Roger's generation, only he and Ferrer are among the ten or dozen best and still playing at a high level, and obviously Ferrer is fading. Youzhny is borderline top ten and has declined. Robredo is playing a bit still, I think, but everyone else has retired. The players of that group that are in the top 100 are, by and large, third and fourth tier players. So why would these guys hold up better?
07-Mar-2017 03:45 PM
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mrzz Online
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RE: Young Guns Watch: 2017
^Well, maybe generation Federer is a bit too old to enter the analysis. Federer himself is an outlier by definition and needs to be seen separately. But taking the players you listed on your blog, without cheking I would think that from 1981 up they are indeed holding up well.
07-Mar-2017 06:16 PM
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El Dude Offline
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RE: Young Guns Watch: 2017
Some interesting NextGen news...Denis Shapovalov defeated fellow Canadian Felix Auger Aliassime in the SF of Drummondville Challenger. FAA had just defeated Alex De Minaur in the previous round. He is also coming off a Futures win (Sherbrooke) and is now ranked #374 in the live rankings...seems like he's starting to move up a bit. A top 200 finish for the 16-year old this year would be terrific.

Shapovalov has stalled a bit, but will enter the top 200 if he defeats #154 Ruben Bemelmans tomorrow.
18-Mar-2017 10:08 PM
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herios Online
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RE: Young Guns Watch: 2017
(18-Mar-2017 10:08 PM)El Dude Wrote:  Some interesting NextGen news...Denis Shapovalov defeated fellow Canadian Felix Auger Aliassime in the SF of Drummondville Challenger. FAA had just defeated Alex De Minaur in the previous round. He is also coming off a Futures win (Sherbrooke) and is now ranked #374 in the live rankings...seems like he's starting to move up a bit. A top 200 finish for the 16-year old this year would be terrific.

Shapovalov has stalled a bit, but will enter the top 200 if he defeats #154 Ruben Bemelmans tomorrow.

Shapo won yesterday and he indeed broke into the top 200, being now ranked 194.
20-Mar-2017 09:12 AM
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El Dude Offline
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RE: Young Guns Watch: 2017
Yeah, I saw that. Good to see. I'm hoping he reaches the top 100 this year. Might be a stretch, though.
20-Mar-2017 12:46 PM
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herios Online
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RE: Young Guns Watch: 2017
(20-Mar-2017 12:46 PM)El Dude Wrote:  Yeah, I saw that. Good to see. I'm hoping he reaches the top 100 this year. Might be a stretch, though.

I doubt that will happen.
(This post was last modified: 21-Mar-2017 04:46 PM by herios.)
21-Mar-2017 04:45 PM
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