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Federer vs Ferrer
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secrettennisjunkie Offline
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Federer vs Ferrer
After Wimbledon, there is high probability of Federer dropping to the no. 5 ranking behind Ferrer: http://live-tennis.eu/forecast_atp_ranking
(By my calcs, in order for Fed to keep no. 4 he must win the title and have Ferrer fail to reach the final, or if Fed makes the final, Ferrer would need to lose in the second round.)

I was thinking about how much of a travesty this would be but then I looked back at the past 52 weeks and decided that it wouldn't that horrible after that because Ferrer has really outperformed Fed over that time period once '12 Wimbledon is taken away.

Majors:
Fed: 1 SF, 2 QF
Ferrer: 1 F, 2 SF

Masters:
Fed: 1 W (Cin), 1 F (Rome), 1 SF (Shang)
Ferrer: 1 W (Paris), 1 F (Mia)

Other:
Fed: WTF F, Olympic Silver, Basel F, Halle W
Ferrer: Valencia W, Acapulco F, 2-250 W

So yes Ferrer has played more small tournaments, but he has also equalled or outperformed Fed on the biggest stages in the last 12 months. So while I don't think Ferrer is going to beat Federer anytime soon (he has won 3 sets in 14 meetings), I think the no. 4 ranking for Ferrer is justified.

Thoughts?
19-Jun-2013 12:38 PM
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justapasserby Offline
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RE: Federer vs Ferrer
whatever the ranking is, i don't mind. the men's tour always did reflect performances accurately. there's no denying ferrer has posted better results. but let's talk when the YE rankings come Smile
19-Jun-2013 12:58 PM
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DarthFed Offline
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RE: Federer vs Ferrer
Ferrer will deserve it once he gets there. But it really reflects on just how piss poor Roger has played since Wimbledon last year. I'm hoping it riles him up once he looks up in the rankings and sees Ferrer ahead of him. If that doesn't do it then Roger really is done.
19-Jun-2013 01:01 PM
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herios Offline
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RE: Federer vs Ferrer
Ferrer as number 4 is no travesty by any means. I am surprised that after almost half a year he's been there, Fedal fans still didn't get used to it.
Well, deal with it.
The guy worked very hard and his results showed it. Think about whenever one of the big 4 was either absent or didn't performed, he was the one to step up to the plate, of the following pack:
RG 2012 he defeated Murray and reached SF
USO 2012 In Nadal absence reached SF
AO 2013 Same as USO 2012
RG 2013 F

Roger not just has to defend his Wimby but also has to perform extremely well at Montreal and Cincy (where he defends a win), because the olympic points will come off and right there 380 points erased of his lead over David.
I think Roger's slipping below David over the next few months is almost a certainty and i could bet it is his turn to enter in slam rsnked 5th, at the USO.
19-Jun-2013 03:08 PM
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Front242 Offline
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RE: Federer vs Ferrer
Ferrer's ranking is very much justified but he has played 13 tournaments to 10 for Fed so even without Fed's subpar results it's hardly surprising to see him ahead in the race. Also I think you can safely cross Ferrer's chance of making the final off the list of scenarios for rankings. He just lost to Malisse (no shame in that, great player on grass but still Ferrer should've been favoured to win) and failed to defend his grass title from last year. Regardless of rankings in any case Fed will probably take it out on poor David at the WTF later this year, leaving him with a WTF of his own when he packs his bags.
19-Jun-2013 03:51 PM
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DarthFed Offline
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RE: Federer vs Ferrer
(19-Jun-2013 03:08 PM)herios Wrote:  Ferrer as number 4 is no travesty by any means. I am surprised that after almost half a year he's been there, Fedal fans still didn't get used to it.
Well, deal with it.
The guy worked very hard and his results showed it. Think about whenever one of the big 4 was either absent or didn't performed, he was the one to step up to the plate, of the following pack:
RG 2012 he defeated Murray and reached SF
USO 2012 In Nadal absence reached SF
AO 2013 Same as USO 2012
RG 2013 F

Roger not just has to defend his Wimby but also has to perform extremely well at Montreal and Cincy (where he defends a win), because the olympic points will come off and right there 380 points erased of his lead over David.
I think Roger's slipping below David over the next few months is almost a certainty and i could bet it is his turn to enter in slam rsnked 5th, at the USO.

Ferrer at #4 ahead of Federer is a travesty if you are the latter. We are talking about a guy who has won 1 big title his entire career (Paris 2012). If that doesn't piss Roger off then he will likely never find the proper motivation again. I wouldn't call the 2011 USO a "blessing in disguise" but there is no doubt in my mind that the disaster of a loss to Nole on the heels of the choke vs. Tsonga is what led to 2012. Roger needs to play with a chip on his shoulder and Ferrer passing him might be the next thing to motivate him.

Obviously I will be thrilled if Federer wins Wimbledon which is what it would take to stay at #4 it seems. But if he doesn't then I am glad that Ferrer is passing him and I also think Roger could still do damage at the USO even if he is #5. If he is #5 at the other 3 slams forget about it. I bet he doesn't stay #5 for long. Even just showing up it is difficult for him not to outperform Ferrer. Stunning he has done it the past 11 months.
(This post was last modified: 19-Jun-2013 05:54 PM by DarthFed.)
19-Jun-2013 05:54 PM
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Moxie629 Offline
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RE: Federer vs Ferrer
(19-Jun-2013 03:08 PM)herios Wrote:  Ferrer as number 4 is no travesty by any means. I am surprised that after almost half a year he's been there, Fedal fans still didn't get used to it.
Well, deal with it.
The guy worked very hard and his results showed it. Think about whenever one of the big 4 was either absent or didn't performed, he was the one to step up to the plate, of the following pack:
RG 2012 he defeated Murray and reached SF
USO 2012 In Nadal absence reached SF
AO 2013 Same as USO 2012
RG 2013 F

Roger not just has to defend his Wimby but also has to perform extremely well at Montreal and Cincy (where he defends a win), because the olympic points will come off and right there 380 points erased of his lead over David.
I think Roger's slipping below David over the next few months is almost a certainty and i could bet it is his turn to enter in slam rsnked 5th, at the USO.

As a Rafa fan, (in the Fedal group, I guess,) I am actually used to it. I'm really proud of Ferrer's accomplishments, and I don't begrudge him his place above Nadal in the rankings. The guy has deserved everything he has accomplished. So don't count me, at least, as one who undersells Ferrer.
19-Jun-2013 09:05 PM
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herios Offline
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RE: Federer vs Ferrer
(19-Jun-2013 09:05 PM)Moxie629 Wrote:  
(19-Jun-2013 03:08 PM)herios Wrote:  Ferrer as number 4 is no travesty by any means. I am surprised that after almost half a year he's been there, Fedal fans still didn't get used to it.
Well, deal with it.
The guy worked very hard and his results showed it. Think about whenever one of the big 4 was either absent or didn't performed, he was the one to step up to the plate, of the following pack:
RG 2012 he defeated Murray and reached SF
USO 2012 In Nadal absence reached SF
AO 2013 Same as USO 2012
RG 2013 F

Roger not just has to defend his Wimby but also has to perform extremely well at Montreal and Cincy (where he defends a win), because the olympic points will come off and right there 380 points erased of his lead over David.
I think Roger's slipping below David over the next few months is almost a certainty and i could bet it is his turn to enter in slam rsnked 5th, at the USO.

As a Rafa fan, (in the Fedal group, I guess,) I am actually used to it. I'm really proud of Ferrer's accomplishments, and I don't begrudge him his place above Nadal in the rankings. The guy has deserved everything he has accomplished. So don't count me, at least, as one who undersells Ferrer.
I wasn't aiming at you with that message, moxie, you know that
19-Jun-2013 10:07 PM
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johnsteinbeck Offline
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RE: Federer vs Ferrer
yup, it's pretty much a given. Fed will be losing a lot of points from the Olympics (435), since he only has 15 DC points to replace them with - while Ferrer's olympic points are actually non-countable already. Fed going into the USO as #5 is inevitable, if the rest remains healthy. and it's not inadequate. in 2013, Ferrer seems to be as much of a (as in: no) threat to the Big Three as Fed is - and a bigger one against the #6-8 group.

if Fed makes the final or wins Wimby, and has a good North American hc swing, he might get it back in the top four for the USO, and he'll have deserved it. if not, then he'll be the #5, and it won't be a travesty, but well deserved for both of them.

btw, Ferrer has 7(!) non-countable tourneys in petto - his s'Hertogenbusch points will be replaced with the Auckland W, so he won't even lose points. shows the insane amount of tourneys this guy plays. what gives? trying to get the most out of the tail end of his time on the tour? crazy.
(This post was last modified: 20-Jun-2013 02:49 AM by johnsteinbeck.)
20-Jun-2013 02:47 AM
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Denisovich Offline
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RE: Federer vs Ferrer
The day David Ferrer surpasses Federer in rankings definitely signifies the beginning of the end of Roger Federer's illustrious career. I think that will make it official, although we knew it for a couple of months now, the unofficial one was his loss against Murray at the AO 2013 IMO.

Just as a reminder to all the Ferrer-fanboys and girls out there: this is their H2H.
20-Jun-2013 04:54 AM
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secrettennisjunkie Offline
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RE: Federer vs Ferrer
(20-Jun-2013 04:54 AM)Denisovich Wrote:  The day David Ferrer surpasses Federer in rankings definitely signifies the beginning of the end of Roger Federer's illustrious career. I think that will make it official, although we knew it for a couple of months now, the unofficial one was his loss against Murray at the AO 2013 IMO.

Just as a reminder to all the Ferrer-fanboys and girls out there: this is their H2H.

I'm going to reserve judgment on Federer until after Wimbledon, but his results have definitely taken a step down in 2013 (or actually since the USO l. to Tsonga) - as evidenced by Ferrer about to pass him. It's really going to be tough for him to win another major or even reach a final especially if his results elsewhere on the tour can't even get him to the #4 ranking. Because at this stage of his career, he's not going to beat Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray at the same event.

Good points by many of you in this thread. It's a shame someone can play so well against players ranked #6 through X but can do nothing (save a win over Murray here or there) against players ranked #1 through #4.
20-Jun-2013 08:52 AM
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Front242 Offline
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RE: Federer vs Ferrer
I dunno, Fed played pretty damn badly against lowered ranked opponents too last few months. The loss against Nishikori was especially poor. Kei didn't have to do anything at all special to win and looked a bit guilty and puzzled at the shake of hands. Even if Fed does badly the next 2 slams he can still perk himself up if he manages to do well in the indoor season and take that momentum to 2014 but it's a been a very poor showing from him since pretty much Cincy last year where he played great.
20-Jun-2013 11:05 AM
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