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What's going on in the world
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britbox Offline
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RE: What's going on in the world
(01-Mar-2014 09:28 AM)JesuslookslikeBorg. Wrote:  
(01-Mar-2014 08:36 AM)britbox Wrote:  
(01-Mar-2014 08:07 AM)JesuslookslikeBorg. Wrote:  ...anyone up for a bit of Global Thermonuclear War ?. Huh Angry Speechless

Won't happen here. Not enough in it for the west.

Russia will take the Crimea one way or another. They are in the box seat already. They've got the naval base at Sevastopol. It's their warm water dock - no way will that be relinquished under any circumstances.

They have a navy in the Crimea and boots already on the ground. No way the west would even contemplate trying to push them out by force. They'll just fund the opposition to be a thorn in the side.

If the Russians push out into other regions then it might be game changer, but Putin won't be interested in Kiev or the western regions. He picks battles he knows he can win... Crimea is low hanging fruit.
does he stop there ? hitler didn't with Germany in 1936 with sudetanland (??) didn't stop there though did it, then it was "oh look..a lot of Austrians are german speaking so lets have austria under the Nazi wing as well" and then...

why stop with crimea ?..Russia could take the rest of Ukraine, and Russia have already invaded crimea and the west has done nothing..oh wait though, Obama was thinking about boycotting a g20 summit in Russia in june Lolz No No (oh nice one barak, that should bring putin to heel)

what can the west do apart from wittering on with feeble meaningless statements ?, all they have got is.....nuclear missiles.

we do nothing or what ?, do we say withdraw from Ukraine or we will.................Emperor

Crimea is a bit different from the rest of the Ukraine - the population has a Russian majority... it was part of the Russian Empire for hundreds of years before it was given to the Ukraine as a "gift" to mark some anniversary in the 1950s. Of course, at the time, Ukraine was under Soviet Control, so it didn't really seem to have that much significance.

When the Soviet Union split up - the Ukraine and the west were apparently amazed that the Russians didn't ask for the Crimea. Yeltsin was probably on his fifth vodka bottle of the day when he signed the deal.

Russia might not even need to annexe the Crimea officially... as long as they control it.

With regard to the Western Ukraine, Kiev... they won't bother. The interim Ukranian government has picked up a $80 billion debt. The Russians won't want any part of picking up that tab.

The only people who could bail out the Ukranian government (and they are flat broke) are the west/IMF. If you saw the conditions they wanted to impose on the Ukraine when they asked for a loan before the troubles (massively cutting costs... including heating subsidies to the general population, rise in taxes... etc)... you'll get the gist that the Ukranian demonstrators/insurgents will fall into the "be careful what you wish for" camp... things are going to get a whole lot worse for them... not better. They also owe the Russians billions in gas bills. I'd hazard a guess the Russians will use that as a major playing card or at worst cut them off.

Russia doesn't need to push deep into the Ukraine - just secure the the Crimea (possibly another couple of Russian dominated areas in the east)... apart from that it will sit back and watch the remainder of the country implode.

The only thing the Ukraine could cause problems with for the Russians are the gas pipelines running through the county. However, seeing as half of Europe get most of their gas from the Russians, they aren't going to get any backing for instigating that scenario.

Russia is well known for producing great chess grandmasters.... and Putin is inches away from check mate.
(This post was last modified: 01-Mar-2014 10:09 AM by britbox.)
01-Mar-2014 10:03 AM
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Kieran Offline
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RE: What's going on in the world
It's very generous of them "not to bother" with Western Ukraine.

Tell me this, buddy: you say they gave Crimea as a "gift" - does that mean they have the right to take it back by force?

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01-Mar-2014 10:10 AM
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britbox Offline
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RE: What's going on in the world
(01-Mar-2014 10:10 AM)Kieran Wrote:  It's very generous of them "not to bother" with Western Ukraine.

Tell me this, buddy: you say they gave Crimea as a "gift" - does that mean they have the right to take it back by force?


They'll use the self-determination card. Most of the Crimean people are Russian. Not a lot the west can complain about seeing as they used the same argument for the break-up of the Yugoslavia and a bunch of other states around the world.
01-Mar-2014 10:11 AM
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Kieran Offline
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RE: What's going on in the world
(01-Mar-2014 10:11 AM)britbox Wrote:  
(01-Mar-2014 10:10 AM)Kieran Wrote:  It's very generous of them "not to bother" with Western Ukraine.

Tell me this, buddy: you say they gave Crimea as a "gift" - does that mean they have the right to take it back by force?


They'll use the self-determination card. Most of the Crimean people are Russian. Not a lot the west can complain about seeing as they used the same argument for the break-up of the Yugoslavia and a bunch of other states around the world.

Well, the former Yugoslavia is now controlled by its own local peoples. I agree, most of Crimea is Russian, and the Russians always considered it to be part of "greater Russia."

But it isn't, actually. It's part of Ukraine. Taking it by force is the natural thing to do, but I don't see that it's right - or good.

As I said at the start, it's too much to ask that Ukraine can sort this out in-house - things don't work this way - but a bullish Putin is a disaster for the region, and the world in general. My missus is from Lithuania, and a large part of the reason they joined the EU - replacing one bureaucratic tyranny (USSR) swiftly with another one - was to strengthen themselves against the Bear. Trust me, eastern Europeans are living in dread at the consequences off Russian military might getting its way again...

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01-Mar-2014 10:16 AM
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britbox Offline
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RE: What's going on in the world
I doubt Fox News will be reporting it as the "Crimean Spring"... but what goes around comes around.
01-Mar-2014 10:16 AM
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Kieran Offline
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RE: What's going on in the world
(01-Mar-2014 10:16 AM)britbox Wrote:  I doubt Fox News will be reporting it as the "Crimean Spring"... but what goes around comes around.

Lay Down Laughing That's true!

And how swiftly the Arab Spring turned into a wintry nightmare for the region...

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01-Mar-2014 10:17 AM
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JesuslookslikeBorg Offline
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RE: What's going on in the world
either the 'iron curtain' has been removed or it has not..or are we in a new era where Russia pull the 'iron curtain' to and fro as they see fit ?

the west would like to know where the iron curtain is this year as they want to do a bit of light hoovering inbetween spells of stroking their thermonuclear missiles.

knowing me alan partridge, knowing you tennis frontier..ah ha.
01-Mar-2014 10:23 AM
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britbox Offline
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RE: What's going on in the world
(01-Mar-2014 10:16 AM)Kieran Wrote:  
(01-Mar-2014 10:11 AM)britbox Wrote:  
(01-Mar-2014 10:10 AM)Kieran Wrote:  It's very generous of them "not to bother" with Western Ukraine.

Tell me this, buddy: you say they gave Crimea as a "gift" - does that mean they have the right to take it back by force?


They'll use the self-determination card. Most of the Crimean people are Russian. Not a lot the west can complain about seeing as they used the same argument for the break-up of the Yugoslavia and a bunch of other states around the world.

Well, the former Yugoslavia is now controlled by its own local peoples. I agree, most of Crimea is Russian, and the Russians always considered it to be part of "greater Russia."

But it isn't, actually. It's part of Ukraine. Taking it by force is the natural thing to do, but I don't see that it's right - or good.

As I said at the start, it's too much to ask that Ukraine can sort this out in-house - things don't work this way - but a bullish Putin is a disaster for the region, and the world in general. My missus is from Lithuania, and a large part of the reason they joined the EU - replacing one bureaucratic tyranny (USSR) swiftly with another one - was to strengthen themselves against the Bear. Trust me, eastern Europeans are living in dread at the consequences off Russian military might getting its way again...

Not much difference mate. It's a largely autonomous region anyway, so if they the local population want to be affiliated with Mother Russia then it's going to be pretty difficult to oppose.

The fact you have 25,000 Russian servicemen already in the Crimea with the naval base means the west won't touch it militarily with a barge pole.

As for the Russian military invading the western part of the country and Kiev... won't happen. They won't touch Eastern Europe.

Part of the problem for the west is historical - they gave assurances to the Russians upon the break up of the Soviet Union that they would not look to take the former states under their wing. They reneged. Not surprising that the Russians look upon the west as totally untrustworthy. They'll look after their own business and just stick two fingers up.
01-Mar-2014 10:24 AM
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Front242 Offline
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Ukraine
(01-Mar-2014 11:44 AM)nehmeth Wrote:  Folks, Putin has received permission from the Russian Senate to use military force in the Ukraine.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/world/....html?_r=1

Unreal. Dirty commie bastards just looking to blow people up.
(This post was last modified: 01-Mar-2014 01:03 PM by kskate2.)
01-Mar-2014 11:45 AM
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Kieran Offline
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RE: What's going on in the world
Interesting article about it here, by a defence strategist, Tom Tugendat, including this astute observation of how things practically move:

Quote:For Nato, meanwhile, withdrawing from Afghanistan is raising questions about its future role...After all, without the kit still in Afghanistan, an already reduced Nato will be greatly enfeebled.

The only realistic way for our combat vehicles to get back is on Russian trains. Pakistan has proved unreliable and flying would take months and cost a fortune. Putin knows that and so does Nato. Heâ€s gambling that most countries wonâ€t want to act.

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01-Mar-2014 11:47 AM
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DarthFed Offline
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RE: Dubai Duty Free ATP 500
(01-Mar-2014 11:44 AM)nehmeth Wrote:  Folks, Putin has received permission from the Russian Senate to use military force in the Ukraine.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/world/....html?_r=1

Who would be dumb enough to oppose him. I'd OK it to if the alternative was Polonium poisoning.
01-Mar-2014 11:47 AM
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Kieran Offline
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RE: Dubai Duty Free ATP 500
(01-Mar-2014 11:44 AM)nehmeth Wrote:  Folks, Putin has received permission from the Russian Senate to use military force in the Ukraine.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/world/....html?_r=1

No No

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01-Mar-2014 11:52 AM
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Kieran Offline
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RE: Dubai Duty Free ATP 500
Bush wasn't worse than Obama. No No

Is this an even better effort from Federer today, given how he came back from a break down in the second?

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01-Mar-2014 12:07 PM
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Kieran Offline
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RE: Ukraine
Why is this a new thread? All it was was a bit of sidebar stuff during Federer's match. We have a thread running about Ukraine...

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01-Mar-2014 01:13 PM
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kskate2 Offline
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RE: Ukraine
Sidebar stuff is do you see Fed winning another major based on his play this week, etc.

This is political and isn't sidebar material. I know how heated political discussions can become and they deserve their own space to allow people to vent.
01-Mar-2014 01:30 PM
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JesuslookslikeBorg Offline
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Bug RE: Ukraine
I have avoided clicking on my google news page since before the Federer match,

more troops from Russia into Ukraine does not sound too relaxing to me. Huh Angry Speechless Emperor

knowing me alan partridge, knowing you tennis frontier..ah ha.
01-Mar-2014 01:35 PM
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JesuslookslikeBorg Offline
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RE: Ukraine
latest news is Russian forces have been given orders to attack any advance by Ukraine's military..Confused and the Ukraine forces have just been put on 'combat alert'.

no one in the mainstream media has mentioned the word "nuclear" yet, or they have been told not to by the government in case people start freaking out.

knowing me alan partridge, knowing you tennis frontier..ah ha.
01-Mar-2014 02:47 PM
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Kieran Offline
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RE: Ukraine
I don't think anything is going nuclear just yet...

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01-Mar-2014 02:56 PM
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britbox Offline
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RE: What's going on in the world
(01-Mar-2014 02:47 PM)JesuslookslikeBorg. Wrote:  latest news is Russian forces have been given orders to attack any advance by Ukraine's military..Confused and the Ukraine forces have just been put on 'combat alert'.

no one in the mainstream media has mentioned the word "nuclear" yet, or they have been told not to by the government in case people start freaking out.

I wouldn't worry about that JLLB - can't see anyone bringing nukes into play. Mutually Assured Destruction still applies. Sit back, relax, pull up a chair and watch a re-run of "Threads" to take your mind off things Smile



(This post was last modified: 01-Mar-2014 05:52 PM by britbox.)
01-Mar-2014 05:51 PM
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TsarMatt Offline
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RE: What's going on in the world
From what I've gathered so far, one thing is for sure, Russia won't give up Ukraine without putting up a fight, all rhetoric by the West aside. When you look at where the country is situated, geographically, they are an extremely valuable political weapon for the Russians since it shares borders with the EU countries. It also has Crimea in its southeast region and is a gateway to Russia's naval facility in Tartus. On the contrary, though, the West are supporting the opposition (and deliberately overlooking all the highly discernible extremist and anti-Semitic elements) so they can utilise Ukraine's geography and be much more expansive with NATO by getting closer to Russia. Everyone knows that NATO have set up various anti-defence missile systems across all Eastern European borders, pointing directly at Russia, so Putin is naturally cautious that the West will do the same if they get their hands on Ukraine. I'd imagine that Putin is also concerned that Russia is beginning to lose its geopolitical influence in the region, as Ukraine could possibly be the third post-Soviet state to distant themselves from Russia and elect to pursue stronger ties with European countries, therefore putting Russia in the cold and without much alliance in the region (other than China which is strictly economical).

Then again, Putin has gas, and Europe buys an endless amount of that, so expect Putin to play that card if things worsen over the next few months. I can't see this evolving into a global or even regional conflict, but a domestic one that will continue to inundate and intensify over time. Neither side will let this spiral out of control too much, and the ominous rhetoric exhibited by the West is just that - rhetoric. Even if Russia conducted in a full-throttle invasion of Ukraine to reinstall order and rule, you wouldn't expect the West to be too retaliative, other than voicing disappointment and perhaps imposing UN sanctions. Likewise, if the West invaded Ukraine, the last thing Putin would want is direct military conflict, as it would damage a lot of what Russia has rebuilt since the dissolution of the USSR. That's why I can't see any direct conflict between the two. My suggestion and answer would be to split Ukraine into two. Western Ukraine, which shares borders with Europe and are more European in both politics and culture, can pursue stronger ties with the EU, and Eastern Ukraine, which is virtually indistinguishable from Russia, can work toward strengthening relations with Russia.

In regards to Russia's recent invasion... it makes no sense. As Putin may have despotic tendencies, he's not dumb. He understands any prodigious conflict with the West would be largely detrimental to both the Russian economy and military-industrial complex he has spent so many years rebuilding. A conflict is the worst thing that could happen to Russia at this stage.
02-Mar-2014 04:26 AM
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