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Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
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El Dude Online
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Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
Roger Federer's record so far this year, with rankings of the players he played:

Madrid (1000):
W - Radek Stepanek (48)
L - Kei Nishikori (16)

Indian Wells (1000):
W - Denis Istomin (43), Ivan Dodig (60), Stanislas Wawrinka (18)
L - Rafael Nadal (5)

Dubai (500):
W - Malek Jaziri (128), Marcel Granollers (34), Nikolay Davydenko (46)
L - Tomas Berdych (6)

Rotterdam (500):
W - Grega Zemija (64), Thiemo de Bakker (123)
L - Julien Benneteau (39)

Australian Open (Slam):
W - Benoit Paire (46), N Davydenko (40), B Tomic (43), M Raonic (15), JW Tsonga (8)
L - A Murray (3)

To depict this differently, here is a list of every player he's played in order of their ranking at the time he played them, with losses in bold:

3 Murray
5 Nadal
6 Berdych
8 Tsonga
15 Raonic
16 Nishikori
18 Wawrinka
34 Granollers
39 Benneteau
40, 46 Davydenko
43 Istomin
43 Tomic
46 Paire
48 Stepanek
60 Dodig
64 Zemija
123 Bakker
128 Jaziri

To put all that another way, Roger's record against different ranking ranges:
#1-5: 0-2
#6-10: 1-1
#11-20: 2-1
#21-50: 7-1
#51+: 4-0

Now this isn't a huge sample size but what it leads me to believe is that at least in terms of 2013, Roger is no longer a top 5 player, and his "real" ranking is somewhere in the #6-10 range. Now this may change. Other than Julien Benneteau, who seems to wear "Federer kryptonite," Roger has beaten every player outside of the top 20 - so he's still safely a top 20 caliber player. But I'd really like to see him beat someone other than a coming-back-from-injury Tsonga to call him still an elite player.

You really have to go back to last November to see Federer defeat a true elite player, when he beat Andy Murray in the Word Tour Finals (but was defeated by both del Potro and Djokovic).

Right now Roger's ATP Race Ranking is at #10 - and the above record accurately reflects that. Roger has not played like a true elite player since 2012, and it remains to be seen whether he can recapture anything approach that level. Let us hope!
09-May-2013 03:49 PM
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Denisovich Offline
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RE: Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
I think it's top 4, or no. 4. He hasn't played much, and I am not going to rank the likes of Ferrer and Berdych above him just yet. Two upcoming slams will be important for Federer.
09-May-2013 04:09 PM
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britbox Offline
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RE: Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
(09-May-2013 03:49 PM)El Dude Wrote:  Roger Federer's record so far this year, with rankings of the players he played:

Madrid (1000):
W - Radek Stepanek (48)
L - Kei Nishikori (16)

Indian Wells (1000):
W - Denis Istomin (43), Ivan Dodig (60), Stanislas Wawrinka (18)
L - Rafael Nadal (5)

Dubai (500):
W - Malek Jaziri (128), Marcel Granollers (34), Nikolay Davydenko (46)
L - Tomas Berdych (6)

Rotterdam (500):
W - Grega Zemija (64), Thiemo de Bakker (123)
L - Julien Benneteau (39)

Australian Open (Slam):
W - Benoit Paire (46), N Davydenko (40), B Tomic (43), M Raonic (15), JW Tsonga (8)
L - A Murray (3)

To depict this differently, here is a list of every player he's played in order of their ranking at the time he played them, with losses in bold:

3 Murray
5 Nadal
6 Berdych
8 Tsonga
15 Raonic
16 Nishikori
18 Wawrinka
34 Granollers
39 Benneteau
40, 46 Davydenko
43 Istomin
43 Tomic
46 Paire
48 Stepanek
60 Dodig
64 Zemija
123 Bakker
128 Jaziri

To put all that another way, Roger's record against different ranking ranges:
#1-5: 0-2
#6-10: 1-1
#11-20: 2-1
#21-50: 7-1
#51+: 4-0

Now this isn't a huge sample size but what it leads me to believe is that at least in terms of 2013, Roger is no longer a top 5 player, and his "real" ranking is somewhere in the #6-10 range. Now this may change. Other than Julien Benneteau, who seems to wear "Federer kryptonite," Roger has beaten every player outside of the top 20 - so he's still safely a top 20 caliber player. But I'd really like to see him beat someone other than a coming-back-from-injury Tsonga to call him still an elite player.

You really have to go back to last November to see Federer defeat a true elite player, when he beat Andy Murray in the Word Tour Finals (but was defeated by both del Potro and Djokovic).

Right now Roger's ATP Race Ranking is at #10 - and the above record accurately reflects that. Roger has not played like a true elite player since 2012, and it remains to be seen whether he can recapture anything approach that level. Let us hope!

I'm pretty sure barring injury, Federer will be a lot higher than #10 come the year end. If you don't think he's a Top 5 player, then I'm wondering who the other 2 would be (other than Rafa, Nole, Murray)? You'd perhaps need to give their results the same level of scrutiny and inspection.
(This post was last modified: 09-May-2013 04:21 PM by britbox.)
09-May-2013 04:15 PM
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huntingyou Offline
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RE: Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
hyperventilating
09-May-2013 04:20 PM
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Front242 Offline
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RE: Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
We'll see how he does in the slams. If he manages to reach semis he's really around number 4. Tommy Haas is in fierce form and will be top 10 again soon. I'd like Roger to find the level of both serving and hitting consistency Tommy Haas right now. BH and FH clicking in nearly every match. Watching shanks and shots go miles wide today against Nishikori wasn't pretty. That said, he's played 2 matches in 7 weeks. If he'd managed to win ugly by playing more intelligently today (being patient and choosing the right shots instead of going for broke which he did too often) at least he'd have lived to play another match and get more match play. As it is, it's back to the practice courts and he's said he's disappointed in his play which should hopefully drive him to do better pretty soon.

Remember what happened end of 2011 when everyone wrote him off before his great run. He claimed he needed to iron out the lapses in concentration and he did just that with a solid consistent period of play when he won all those titles. Sadly now the inconsistency has returned and 7 weeks off didn't help. Pretty sure he can play his way into form a bit more in best of 5 and win ugly if needed in the early rounds. He won't have much choice unless he really does better in Rome and gets more matches under his belt. The guys at 6-10 aren't exactly amazing us all with their play either so it's not like he's below any of them.
(This post was last modified: 09-May-2013 04:54 PM by Front242.)
09-May-2013 04:54 PM
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Kiu Offline
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RE: Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
Old Roger is #5
09-May-2013 05:03 PM
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Denisovich Offline
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RE: Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
(09-May-2013 05:03 PM)Kiu Wrote:  Old Roger is #5

Who is above him then?
09-May-2013 05:05 PM
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Front242 Offline
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RE: Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
(09-May-2013 05:05 PM)Denisovich Wrote:  
(09-May-2013 05:03 PM)Kiu Wrote:  Old Roger is #5

Who is above him then?

The other 4 ? Tongue
09-May-2013 05:07 PM
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Denisovich Offline
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RE: Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
(09-May-2013 05:07 PM)Front242 Wrote:  
(09-May-2013 05:05 PM)Denisovich Wrote:  
(09-May-2013 05:03 PM)Kiu Wrote:  Old Roger is #5

Who is above him then?

The other 4 ? Tongue

You mean young Roger, prime Roger, baby-Fed and grumpy Federer?
09-May-2013 05:11 PM
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Front242 Offline
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RE: Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
(09-May-2013 05:11 PM)Denisovich Wrote:  
(09-May-2013 05:07 PM)Front242 Wrote:  
(09-May-2013 05:05 PM)Denisovich Wrote:  
(09-May-2013 05:03 PM)Kiu Wrote:  Old Roger is #5

Who is above him then?

The other 4 ? Tongue

You mean young Roger, prime Roger, baby-Fed and grumpy Federer?

Sounds like something Kieran would sayTongue Seriously though, Djokovic, Nadal, Murray and Ferrer all have better results than him since Cincy last year when he last won a title. Since then he's been like a far different player. He's only played 2 matches in 7 weeks so I wouldn't write him off just yet and I still think he'll manage to play his way into some better form in RG where the best of 5 format will prove some useful practice.
09-May-2013 05:23 PM
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Denisovich Offline
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RE: Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
Aha ok, Ferrer is the fourth player... well yes maybe in terms of results...

Anyway, if he get's unlucky with the draw at RG and Wimbledon (meeting Haas, Dimitrov and at RG even Wawrinka) early and he has a bad day, the QF streak might come to an end. I actually think that really might happen. The streak is just incredible in itself, and he had a couple of close wins before, he will find himself on the losing side at some point.
09-May-2013 05:32 PM
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Front242 Offline
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RE: Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
(09-May-2013 05:32 PM)Denisovich Wrote:  Aha ok, Ferrer is the fourth player... well yes maybe in terms of results...

Anyway, if he get's unlucky with the draw at RG and Wimbledon (meeting Haas, Dimitrov and at RG even Wawrinka) early and he has a bad day, the QF streak might come to an end. I actually think that really might happen. The streak is just incredible in itself, and he had a couple of close wins before, he will find himself on the losing side at some point.

Against Wawrinka and Haas I'd agree he'll have a good chance of losing as they're not missing many balls and serving much better than he is right now. Dimitrov was brilliant against Djokovic and Nadal (at Monte Carlo) but till he improves his fitness I think even if he somehow managed to get 2 sets up on Roger his fitness is questionable and he'd run out of gas in best of 5.

Let's see how they all fare next week in Rome.
09-May-2013 05:40 PM
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Kiu Offline
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RE: Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
(09-May-2013 05:07 PM)Front242 Wrote:  
(09-May-2013 05:05 PM)Denisovich Wrote:  
(09-May-2013 05:03 PM)Kiu Wrote:  Old Roger is #5

Who is above him then?

The other 4 ? Tongue

1) Nole
2) Andy
3) Rafa
4) Daveed
5) Roger!

look at the race to london ranking, OLD Roger is sitting pretty at the #10 spot!!
1 Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 4,120
2 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 3,000
3 Murray, Andy (GBR) 2,720
4 Ferrer, David (ESP) 2,520
5 Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 1,685
6 Delpo, Juan Martin (ARG) 1,515
7 Tsonga, Jo-Wilfried (FRA) 1,410
8 Gasquet, Richard (FRA) 1,395
9 Almagro, Nicolas (ESP) 1,305
10 Federer, Roger (SUI) 1,170
09-May-2013 06:00 PM
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Denisovich Offline
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RE: Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
^ I know, I even started he thread about it a week ago...
09-May-2013 06:05 PM
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El Dude Online
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RE: Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
OK, let's see how he does at the next couple Slams, but my concern is that the "shanks and shots gone wide" is all I've seen from him in 2013.

As for who is above him, well assuming he doesn't improve then I think Berdych, del Potro, Ferrer, and Tsonga are all better. Ferrer might not beat him one on one, but will do better against others. This Roger is about on par with Gasquet, in my opinion.
09-May-2013 07:43 PM
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JesuslookslikeBorg Offline
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RE: Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
come on folks..its Federer we are talking about..surely he is going to improve Huh

fear not tennis chums Cool everything is in hand (I hope).

knowing me alan partridge, knowing you tennis frontier..ah ha.
09-May-2013 07:48 PM
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DarthFed Offline
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RE: Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
(09-May-2013 07:43 PM)El Dude Wrote:  OK, let's see how he does at the next couple Slams, but my concern is that the "shanks and shots gone wide" is all I've seen from him in 2013.

As for who is above him, well assuming he doesn't improve then I think Berdych, del Potro, Ferrer, and Tsonga are all better. Ferrer might not beat him one on one, but will do better against others. This Roger is about on par with Gasquet, in my opinion.


Huh It isn't that bad yet. He might be playing worse than a couple of those guys the past few months but that's it. Roger stunk for his standards after Cincy last year but that was still better than everyone but Djokovic and Murray.

Look, it does seem Fed will drop below Ferrer sometime soon. However, on top of the fact Roger has played poorly you do have Ferrer playing almost double the tournaments Federer does. Berdych is better than Roger only in the individual matchup, he is quite inconsistent vs. the rest of the field. Tsonga??? Gasquet??? Please. 3-4 piss poor months of tennis doesn't mean he will always be this bad.
(This post was last modified: 09-May-2013 08:14 PM by DarthFed.)
09-May-2013 08:14 PM
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Sundaymorningguy Offline
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RE: Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
#3 since that is what he will be ranked next week. If he doesn't improve soon, then it will be 4 or 5.
09-May-2013 09:02 PM
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Kiu Offline
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RE: Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
(09-May-2013 07:43 PM)El Dude Wrote:  ...
As for who is above him, well assuming he doesn't improve then I think Berdych, del Potro, Ferrer, and Tsonga are all better....

I was being nice, he is a legend and I love him to death.
He has done more than anyone in this era to popularize Tennis.

But I agree with your conclusion.

How is a 32 year old going to improve?

Roger is still #5 in my book because of who he is.

It was hard putting Daveed ahead of him!
09-May-2013 09:03 PM
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britbox Offline
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RE: Federer's 2013 so far - what is his "real" ranking?
Federer's tennis obituary as a top player being written way too early IMO.... again.
10-May-2013 12:57 AM
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