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(Edited to correct the formula.)
There has been some discussion about 2017 Wimbledon seedings. In particular, the question was raised whether Federer will achieve a top 4 seeding.
It is really far too early, and there are too many unknowns. Still, we can take a look at the points that we already know will be added.
The formula is as follows: Take the points as current ahead of Wimbledon, add the previous 12 months grass court results again (i.e., 2017 warm-ups + 2016 Wimbledon), and 75% of the best result of the previous 12 months (2016 warm-ups and 2015 SW19).
Fed has 2015 Wimbledon F (1200), 2016 Stuttgart, Halle, Wimbledon SF (90/180/720).
75% of 1200=900
So points to be added are 1620 + grass-court results from 2017.
So Fed will indeed have a significant advantage through the seeding system. Apart from Murray and Djokovic, there would seem to be only Raonic at a similar level.
He has 2015 Wimbledon R3 (90) 2016 Queens F (300), Wimbledon F (1200).
So he gets an extra 1425 + grass-court warm-ups 2017 for the seedings.
So we see that Fed is ahead even of Raonic on the extra grass-court points. If Fed wins IW, he will be almost equal with Raonic on current ranking points. Nishikori and Stan are higher, but have almost nothing in grass-court results to be added for the formula (Nishikori has 2016 R16, Wawrinka 2015 QF, adding 180/270 points; very little otherwise).
Currently, Fed's deficit in the rankings behind the top 3-6:
Wawrinka: 1800 (2200 if Stan wins IW, 1400 if Fed does);
Nishikori: 825 (425 if Fed wins IW);
Raonic: 575 (175 if Fed wins IW);
Nadal: 240 (Roger overtakes Rafa if he wins IW).
A lot can still happen between now and Wimbledon, but as things stand, a top 4 seeding for Federer no longer seems entirely fanciful, particularly if he wins the IW title.
|18-Mar-2017 08:51 PM
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